Some Stats-Based Positives and Negatives from Spurs’ Season

While there is a lot of doom and gloom coming from Tottenham fans at the moment, we should not forget that the season has not been a complete bust. Teams can have a bad season – look at Manchester United last year, and Chelsea this year – and bounce back quickly enough. Yes, there are changes needed on and off the pitch, but Spurs – speaking completely objectively – remain a good football team; one of the best in England, with a bright future. Perspective is important.

Indeed, while we can look at some of the poor performances of late, over the course of a season we can take a broader view of Spurs’ positives and negatives via statistical analysis. Tottenham, lest we forget, were third favourites in the Premier League odds at the start of the season as confidence soared that the team could do something special under Antonio Conte. There are many narratives of what went wrong, but below we look at the numbers of Spurs’ season so far*:

*Note that all data is taken after 34 games. Season comparisons are compared with Spurs’ record after 34 games, not final points tallies.

1. Those first-half problems

Let’s start with the elephant in the room: Tottenham’s terrible starts in games, as evidenced by going down by multiple early goals to Newcastle, Liverpool, and Manchester United in recent weeks. Spurs have been leading at home in just four games at half-time this season, which would be relegation form. Away from home, it’s actually not been that bad – particularly if you overlook the Liverpool and Newcastle games – with Spurs leading at half-time in six games, drawing in five. However, the most worrying stat is the 30 goals conceded in the first half – the second-worst record in the Premier League after Bournemouth.

2. Second-half fightbacks

Again, this is a narrative we have seen in recent weeks, borne out of the comebacks against United (successful) and Liverpool (unsuccessful). But it does form part of the characterization of Spurs’ season. Spurs have the third-best second-half record in the Premier League, only marginally behind Arsenal and Man City. If the season was only judged on second-half performances, Spurs would not only be in the Champions League places; they would be fighting for the title. 17 wins and eight draws in second-half periods. At home, they are the best second-half team in the Premier League.

3. Rarely failing to score

Have goals been a problem for Spurs this season? It sometimes feels that way. However, the stats say otherwise. Spurs have failed to score in only 12% of matches, again placing them third behind City and Arsenal. This is much better than the 26% of matches played last season. The 88% scoring rate is split equally between home and away games, but as you might imagine there is a gulf in first-half and second-half strike rates. 85% of Spurs games have two or more goals (a joint league high), and an incredible 29% of games have had 5+ goals. Another telling statistic is that Spurs’ average time of conceding a goal is the 44^th minute, whereas the average time of scoring is in the 55^th minute. The new manager will need to work on his side not falling behind.

4. The table doesn’t lie

Spurs’ tally of 54 points (over 34 games) is the second-lowest at the same stage of the season since 2010-2011. Only in the 2019/20 season – where Spurs switched between Pochettino and Mourinho, eventually finishing 6^th – were Spurs worse off after 34 games. There is a fair chance that this season will end with the worst points tally since 2008/2009 when Spurs finished 8^th under Harry Redknapp (who replaced Juande Ramos earlier in the season).

5. The simple truth

What it all comes down to is simple, really. Spurs have a decent scoring record, albeit one that is marred by limp first-half performances. However, their defensive record leaves a lot to be desired. When the manager and board look at how to ‘fix’ Tottenham this summer, they should be thinking about the fact that the team on goals scored is firmly in the Champions League positions. When it comes to goals conceded, they have a worse record than relegation-threatened Everton.