Rating Barcelona’s chances of winning the 2024/25 Champions League

Barcelona have had a rough few years, but there is a feeling that they have gone past the worst of their horrors from near financial ruin, to the departure of their greatest-ever player and the emergence of a young talented unit. 

The years of turmoil have made way for some positivity recently, and the appointment of Xavi Hernandez to replace Ronald Koeman was a key step to restoring the team to its roots. 

After taking Barcelona from ninth to a second-place finish since taking over, Xavi won the 2022/23 La Liga title and the Spanish Super Cup in his first full season as the club’s manager.

While he had to rely on many youngsters from the academy to bridge the gap due to their inability to sign preferred targets, the quality in the squad began to tell in Xavi’s second season.

A string of disappointing results including heavy Cup defeats to Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao led to increased pressure and scrutiny on Xavi. A 5-3 loss to Villarreal in January left the club 10 points behind Madrid and their former midfielder announced that he would leave the club at the end of the season.

However, Xavi would make a remarkable turnaround a few months later by choosing to stay and fulfil his contract at the Nou Camp. That arrangement turned out to be short-lived as he was sacked only a month later by club president Joan Laporta.

Barca had finished 10 points behind the eventual champions and they are set for a season of transition under the new manager, Hansi Flick. To that effect, Barcelona tickets will also see a surge in demand for the 2024/25 season.

The 59-year-old leads Barcelona into the 2024/25 campaign as just the third German to ever coach the club – after Hennes Weisweiler and Udo Lattek – and he will be keen to make a transformative impact similar to his arrival at Bayern Munich.

There has been only one La Liga title triumph for Barca in the last five seasons and that drop-off has also been reflected in European competitions.

Although the immediate focus is wrestling back the title which their rivals won with relative ease last term, Barcelona’s last Champions League victory came in 2015 which has been followed by some truly mediocre knockout defeats, as well as dropping to the Europa League for a couple of seasons. 

Can they perform a miracle in the UCL?

The five-time European champions reached the quarter-final for the first time in four years and they are only outside favourites to win it this term. 

The 2024/25 UEFA Champions League season will be its first under a new format that will see the first round of the tournament changed completely. 

From the previous system of 32 teams in eight groups, the new league phase will consist of all 36 sides each contesting eight matches in the first round. With four matches at home and four away scheduled, the increased number of games creates engagement between several teams and allows each a fair chance to gather enough points in the league phase. 

All the participating clubs will be seeded in four pots, based on their club coefficient from the previous season, and two teams from each pot will be chosen to make up eight different opponents. Barcelona will be in Pot 1 for the league stage draw, hence they must face a variety of teams from each pot.

After the first round, the top eight sides in the league will qualify automatically for the Round of 16 while those that finish between 9th to 24th place will compete in a knock-out play-off to determine who makes up the other half of the Last 16. The teams that finish 25th and below will be eliminated completely from European competition as there’s no longer an avenue to drop down into the Europa League.

The draw for the league stage takes place on Thursday, 29 August 2024 when Barca will know the teams they will be facing in the first round. 

Given the new system, Barca are likely to reach the knockout rounds and it will be up to them to navigate very strong opponents on their way. They have a Champions League-winning manager at the helm but the overall quality in the squad must be balanced to cope with the increased schedule of fixtures. 

The transfer window is thus the time to strengthen that roaster adequately for what is to come. 

Barcelona’s summer transfer business

The priority before the transfer window opened was the need for a replacement for Sergio Busquets in the deep-lying midfielder role where the stopgap signing of Oriol Romeu did not deliver as hoped last season. 

Having missed out on signing Martin Zubimendi, Flick is confident that he has enough options in midfield and sees no need to bring in another player, despite the likes of Gavi, Pedri and Frenkie de Jong suffering injuries in recent months.

The German is instead moved by what he has seen in La Masia gems Marc Casado and Marc Bernal, who were impressive in pre-season alongside other youngsters like Alex Valle and Pau Victor.

Meanwhile, a large part of their transfer budget has gone into signing Dani Olmo from RB Leipzig in a €62million move. The 27-year-old returns as a national hero thanks to his exploits in Spain’s EURO 2024 campaign and the Blaugranas will be keen to bolster in other positions of urgent need.

It is no secret that the club is looking to sign a natural winger and have identified Nico Williams as their primary target. However, things have not gone to plan as the Spanish international has all but confirmed that he will not be leaving Athletic Bilbao this summer.

Elsewhere, Federico Chiesa is a target considering he has been made surplus to requirements with one year left on his Juventus contract, and Barca could be willing to make a move. The Blaugranas have been offered the services of Bayern Munich winger Kingsley Coman who worked with Flick at Bayern Munich.

Barca are also keen to bring back Joao Cancelo on loan after his temporary spell from Manchester City last term. 

The squad needs some astute adjustments in order to improve on last season’s showings, and their manager’s experience must come to the fore in a club that must maximize its resources.