Son and Kane lead % of goals scored above 'expected goals' in Europe since 2016

[To Dare Is To Do.]

Not wasteful?

Correct.
Second best conversion rate of chances, taking into account difficulty, out of Europe's top 20 goal scorers.

If he’s missing because of where he takes them from, then surely his judgement should be questioned

Well given he has the most goals and the most assists so far in the PL, I think it shows his judgement of when to pass and when to shoot is good.

 

[sammyspurs]

Well that's one anecdote, weak evidence.

What this stat does is take into account all his goals from 2016, and all his shots, while also taking into account shot difficulty & distance.
And it shows that overall, Kane has second best conversion rate compared to the other top 20 goalscorers in Europe.

But he doesn’t

 

[sammyspurs]

Second best conversion rate of chances, taking into account difficulty, out of Europe's top 20 goal scorers.

“Taking into account difficulty” is just something that’s been added to try and water down the fact Kane conversion rate is 17%

Define a difficult shot

 

[NW1Spur]

Correct.
Second best conversion rate of chances, taking into account difficulty, out of Europe's top 20 goal scorers.


Well given he has the most goals and the most assists so far in the PL, I think it shows his judgement of when to pass and when to shoot is good.

Honestly, don't waste your time with him. It's not a discussion. You're conversing with a black hole. He could keep it up for days, months, years even.

 

[To Dare Is To Do.]

“Taking into account difficulty” is just something that’s been added to try and water down the fact Kane conversion rate is 17%

Define a difficult shot

xG, 'expected goals', is a measure which calculates the number of shots and the difficulty of scoring. I believe distance and angle are key factors when assessing difficulty.

Obviously it's not perfect, but is an indicator of how clinical a player is.
Also it's an objective statistic, it's not like I invented it or made this graph to make Kane look good.

 

[sammyspurs]

Isn’t this the sort of shot you want put away in the last second of extra time to win a match?

 

[To Dare Is To Do.]

Isn’t this the sort of shot you want put away in the last second of extra time to win a match?

Yeah, this is a clear example of chance with a high 'xG', which Kane missed.

Once again, you're citing a few examples.

What this stat does is aggregate ALL of Kane's goals, and ALL of his chances taking into account difficulty; and come up with a percentage of goals vs xG.
Looking at the overall picture makes far more sense than relying on anecdotal evidence.

 

[sammyspurs]

xG, 'expected goals', is a measure which calculates the number of shots and the difficulty of scoring. I believe distance and angle are key factors when assessing difficulty.

Obviously it's not perfect, but is an indicator of how clinical a player is.
Also it's an objective statistic, it's not like I invented it or made this graph to make Kane look good.

But it’s not objective because it’s trying to define how difficult a shot was and claiming player x is more clinical than player y due to criteria that can’t be defined.

What I know for a fact is, Kane has taken 109 shots and scored 19.
He’s missed the target altogether 67 times

I’m not going to claim his shots are more difficult than Salahs. How can anyone? It’s nonsense.

However it’s stands to reason that if Salah had taken the same amount of shots (that would be another 17), then Kane wouldn’t be top scorer right now, because Salah doesn’t need 17 shots to score one goal

 

[To Dare Is To Do.]

But it’s not objective because it’s trying to define how difficult a shot was and claiming player x is more clinical than player y due to criteria that can’t be defined.

Criteria is defined here:
xG stats explained: the science behind Sportec Solutions' Expected goals model

You are citing the percentage of goals from shots taken, while I'm citing goals/xG which also takes into account angle/ distance etc.

Both stats are imperfect, but xG has more contextual factors, so is more accurate. Simple.

 

[sammyspurs]

Once again, you're citing a few examples.

That’s odd because it’s happening every week and every week it’s still “not the norm”

 

[To Dare Is To Do.]

That’s odd because it’s happening every week and every week it’s still “not the norm”

It's not happening every week.

If Kane was missing sitters every week, and not scoring difficult chances, then he wouldn't be number 2 in Europe for goals/xG, would he? That's the point.

 

[sammyspurs]

Criteria is defined here:
xG stats explained: the science behind Sportec Solutions' Expected goals model

You are citing the percentage of goals from shots taken, while I'm citing goals/xG which also takes into account angle/ distance etc.

Both stats are imperfect, but xG has more contextual factors, so is more accurate. Simple.

And as I said, maybe Kane needs better judgement as of when to shoot and when to pass then

 

[sammyspurs]

It's not happening every week.

If Kane was missing sitters every week, and not scoring difficult chances, then he wouldn't be number 2 in Europe for goals/xG, would he? That's the point.

Hmmmm, didn’t you say all that data has been lumped in from 2016.
5 years of data, doesn’t white wash the last four months

I could probably make Dele look like the most productive AM in Europe doing that

 

[To Dare Is To Do.]

Hmmmm, didn’t you say all that data has been lumped in from 2016.
5 years of data, doesn’t white wash the last four months

Yeah it's from 2016 to early 2021.
Keeping up that level for 5 years is more impressive than any 4 month period. Anyway I don't think he's been bad in the past 4 months anyway.

And as I said, maybe Kane needs better judgement as of when to shoot and when to pass then

He's top scorer in PL currently, and has got the most assists. Also has won the golden boot a few times previously. All shows his judgment of when to shoot or pass is top notch.

I think perhaps you should concede this argument.

 

[Notabadsquad]

Hmmmm, didn’t you say all that data has been lumped in from 2016.
5 years of data, doesn’t white wash the last four months

I could probably make Dele look like the most productive AM in Europe doing that

Agreed.

Kane and Son are quality but I would swap 30 goals from each for a few in the key games of the last 4/5 years.

To me that would be real proof of their talent.

 

[sammyspurs]

And this is what defines difficulty?
Fairly nonsensical to be honest. An open goal 25 yards out is easier than 8yrds out with 16 players in 6yrd the box

• Distance to the goal
• Angle to the goal
• Did the player strike it with his feet or was it a header?
• In what passage of play did it happen? (e.g. open play, direct free-kick, corner kick, counter-attack)
• Has the player just beaten an opponent?
• 
  

 

[sammyspurs]

Agreed.

Kane and Son are quality but I would swap 30 goals from each for a few in the key games of the last 4/5 years.

To me that would be real proof of their talent.

No, no Kane’s free kicks are world class and it’s not his fault because the wall jumped and made it difficult

 

[NW1Spur]

Oh god the resident Chelsea fan has joined the chat. This thread's going on ignore. To Dare Is To Do. I'll check back in three days time by which time you'll probably have realised you've been conversing with the equivalent of a labotomized poodle.

 

[sammyspurs]

Yeah it's from 2016 to early 2021.
Keeping up that level for 5 years is more impressive than any 4 month period. Anyway I don't think he's been bad in the past 4 months anyway.


He's top scorer in PL currently, and has got the most assists. Also has won the golden boot a few times previously. All shows his judgment of when to shoot or pass is top notch.

I think perhaps you should concede this argument.

I don’t need to conceded it because I’ve said Kane is world class on his day

I think scoring the most by a few, yet taking anywhere between 15 and 60 more shots than your closest rivals is logical, not clinical

 

[To Dare Is To Do.]

An open goal 25 yards out is easier than 8yrds out with 16 players in 6yrd the box

Of course. But on average, a 25 yard goal is harder than a 8 yard goal.
And btw, this criticism ^ would also apply to your stat of goal as a percentage of overall shots.

As I said, both the stats we're using are imperfect. But mine is more precise as it takes into account more things such as angle and distance.