The Race for 4th

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DPN9 said:
As long as the Chelski players are getting paid, they won't worry, and Tuchel is a master tactician(apart from Saturday😀), so I don't think they'll crumble enough to lose a CL place.
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I can see them falling apart to be honest...
I think fatigue is starting to set in given the amount of games they've played the last couple of seasons
They're definitely not as sharp as they once were
 
Don't think it's worth bringing Chelsea in to the discussion yet .. bar Brentford they were on a big winning run, performances weren't amazing but were quite steady. Need to see in the next 2-3 games whether that was a freak result or them actually dropping off.

Would need to be a pretty steep fall for them to be threatened, but hey .. who knows.
 
KaneDomBadBoy said:
I can see them falling apart to be honest...
I think fatigue is starting to set in given the amount of games they've played the last couple of seasons
They're definitely not as sharp as they once were
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The extra games are certainly a factor, and we used to look very leggy after a CL or EL game; I hope you're right.
 
Raumdeuterz said:
Don't think it's worth bringing Chelsea in to the discussion yet .. bar Brentford they were on a big winning run, performances weren't amazing but were quite steady. Need to see in the next 2-3 games whether that was a freak result or them actually dropping off.

Would need to be a pretty steep fall for them to be threatened, but hey .. who knows.
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At this moment I don’t see them falling off enough for us to catch them.
Having said that, they have a number of free agents to be who might care more about this year’s CL glory than getting them back into the competition. Hopefully, they’ll put more effort into that.
 
Raumdeuterz said:
Don't think it's worth bringing Chelsea in to the discussion yet .. bar Brentford they were on a big winning run, performances weren't amazing but were quite steady. Need to see in the next 2-3 games whether that was a freak result or them actually dropping off.

Would need to be a pretty steep fall for them to be threatened, but hey .. who knows.
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They barely scraped by Newcastle a couple weeks ago. It took a last minute winner for them to beat a team we absolutely tore apart today.
Then the 4-1 result yesterday against Brentford.
Wheels seem to be starting to fall off.
I think it's just fatigue starting to creep in due to the fact that they've been going deep in tournaments over the last couple seasons e.g. CL, FA, EFL etc.
 
KaneDomBadBoy said:
They barely scraped by Newcastle a couple weeks ago. It took a last minute winner for them to beat a team we absolutely tore apart today.
Then the 4-1 result yesterday against Brentford.
Wheels seem to be starting to fall off.
I think it's just fatigue starting to creep in due to the fact that they've been going deep in tournaments over the last couple seasons e.g. CL, FA, EFL etc.
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They've lost a bit of momentum for sure. Just think they'll have enough to grind out results most weeks, to drop top 4 now they'd have to lose a good handful of games. It may well be a loss of focus in the league as the players are looking at the CL and feeling like the league is done and top 4 confirmed. Today may or may not be a wake up call, remains to be seen.
 
sudoku said:
Our last 6 EPL games:

LEEDS UNITEDA4-0W
EVERTONH5-0W
MANCHESTER UNITEDA2-3L
BRIGHTON AND HOVE ALBIONA2-0W
WEST HAM UNITEDH3-1W
NEWCASTLE UNITEDH5-1W
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So in that period we have goals scored at 21 and conceded 5, with 3 clean sheets.

Take away the fuck up against Manure, that's an amazing run.

Conte has turned us around.
 
As amazing as getting top 4 again will be , imagine no European football next season and conte having a full week for each match. Perhaps we could push onto challenge city and Liverpool?
 
simon j said:
As amazing as getting top 4 again will be , imagine no European football next season and conte having a full week for each match. Perhaps we could push onto challenge city and Liverpool?
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There’s no way we won’t have Europe. We’ll finish 7th at absolute worst, and probably at least 6th.
 
simon j said:
As amazing as getting top 4 again will be , imagine no European football next season and conte having a full week for each match. Perhaps we could push onto challenge city and Liverpool?
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Sure but Conte would consider that a failure. He wants to be in the Champions League. Conte has proved if he gets the backing from Levy this summer there is no reason we shouldn’t be challenging for the title and the CL next year.
 
Based on long- (season, 10 match), mid- (5 & 7 match), and short-term (1 & 3 match) form relative to upcoming opponents, I have us finishing with 73-76 points.

I've calculated the relative expected points for each remaining match. e.g., our 5-match form is WLWWW = 12/5 = 2.4, while our next opponent (AVL) is WWLLL = 6/5 = 1.2, giving a relative form of 2.4 - 1.2 = +1.2. I've calculated this for each parameter (1, 3, 5, 7, 10, and Season Form) to account for teams under- or over-performing their short vs mid vs long form. For final points estimations I've used arbitrary cutoffs of <-0.5 = Lose, >+0.5 = Win, -0.5 to +0.5 = Draw. The table below has the average, median, and maximum of 1-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-match and season form predicted results.

Matches Remaining (H,A)Current PointsPredicted Points
(Average)		Predicted Points
(Median)		Predicted Points
(Max)		Remaining Fixtures (mid-term form, pts)
CHE9 (5,4)59787886SOU,LEE,CRY,ARS,WHU,EVE,WOL,MUN,WAT
(1.34)
TOT8 (4,4)54737376AVL,BHA,BRE,LEI,LIV,BUR,NOR,ARS
(1.33)
ARS10 (4,6)54717076CRY,BHA,SOU,CHE,MUN,WHU,LEE,NEW,EVE,TOT
(1.46)
WHU7 (3,4)51646468BRE,BUR,CHE,ARS,NOR,MCI,BHA
(1.41)
MNU8 (3,5)51646368EVE,NOR,LIV,ARS,BRE,BHA,CHE,CRY
(1.46)

I have not accounted for home/away matches or goal difference in the predictions, nor have I used predicted outcomes to adjust forecasting (i.e., assumes form is fixed as of today).
 
Chelsea could definitely dragged into a fight for 4th. The goons could drop points tonight and still be in third if they beat Chelsea next week (and Chelsea lose at saints).

They don’t score enough goals at the mo

Would be absolutely hilarious if they get pushed aside
 
Spud-U-Like said:
Everyone thinks it's between us and Woolwich. i've said it before and i'll say it again, Chelsea will crumble due to their unstable situation. I believe we will overtake them.
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Obviously I hate Woolwich more, but there is something that is so objectively hateable about Chelsea that I think it would be even funnier to finish above them.

It's not just their ownership situation, but at least Woolwich have actually built things up again the right way again, have also got out a lot of those cancerous players (and most of the ones that were the most hateable). Chelsea I hate every person that associates with them, they just have a knack of signing the cuntiest players at all times.
 
AussieYiddo said:
Obviously I hate Woolwich more, but there is something that is so objectively hateable about Chelsea that I think it would be even funnier to finish above them.

It's not just their ownership situation, but at least Woolwich have actually built things up again the right way again, have also got out a lot of those cancerous players (and most of the ones that were the most hateable). Chelsea I hate every person that associates with them, they just have a knack of signing the cuntiest players at all times.
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There’s a reason we call them Woolwich and for me they are worse because they are a plastic nomad club. Never say they’ve built themselves the right way. And both sets of fans are equally despicable. Been on the receiving end of spittle at Chelsea and have heard Arse fans en masse giving it the gas chamber hiss, so I don’t really care to put one above the other.
 
All Woolwich supporter, players, ground staff, bog cleaners, stewards are cunts, they can piss off the lot of them.
 
Do people actually "hate" other humans because of the team they're associated with?

Like, seriously?
I'd say that constitutes a very severe personality disorder.
If someone is a bellend, they're a bellend regardless of what team they support. There's plenty of Spurs fans that make me ashamed of just being a football fan sometimes.
 
SpurFromOz said:
So in that period we have goals scored at 21 and conceded 5, with 3 clean sheets.

Take away the fuck up against Manure, that's an amazing run.

Conte has turned us around.
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I have been so amazed with how the two Juventus boys have turned us around aswell.

Initially I thought it was more bargain bin diving by Levy, but their immediate impact has been amazing.

Provides alot of optimism for the future if we can keep hold of Conte
 
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