I don't see what's so improbably about the chances for Son's 2nd & 3rd.
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I don't see what's so improbably about the chances for Son's 2nd & 3rd.
The 2nd will have been the highest in xG by far. But Son is BRILLIANT 1on1 whereas actually most players statistically miss more than they score. The third one is a really, really good finish too and unlikely to come with some very high scoring %.
We're spoiled by Son, he's a player that goes well above xG season after season, he's just a ludicrously clinical finisher compared to his peers. If you watch the City vs L'pool game, there were a lot of similar half chances which even other elite players fuck up very regularly.
The model obviously doesn't take into account that it wasn't me or you in those positions, rather it was one of the best finishers in the world. Who also happens to be in excellent form, playing in a team full of confidence. It's a very rudimentary "measurement". And pretty pointless reporting it on a match by match basis.
It measures it up against other professionals, to be fair. But yes, the model doesn't take in to account individuals and is definitely more useful as a statistic across a season to see how many good opportunities a team is creating for itself.
It is what it is, it gets misused a lot (it defo doesn't mean 'we had more xG so should have won!) but its useful for looking at how often a team is getting themselves in to good situations.
Indeed..... A team typically plays according to the attacking opportunities that suit their squad the best......
West Ham are strong in the air and from crosses..... Surely for them creating such chances yields a better XG (in any meaningful sense) for them than if we were doing the same for a shorty like Sonny.
The accuracy of this post according to xG is 0.05
It scores a full 1.0 in rR (Rocket Reckoning)
He's uh .. 6 foot mate!
But yes, that's why xG isn't the holy grail. We look for Son in behind because he's brilliant in those situations, if he wasn't we'd mix up our attacking play. As with everything it's just one measure as part of the bigger picture, and never shows the whole story.
I'd say Lucas matches the shorty profile in our squad, but that man leaps like a fucking salmon.
You said Conte and paratici. Not just paratici alone. Anyway Conte must he backed in the summer. Hopefully he will with the added bonus of UCL if we can make it... hopefully
It's definitely not rudimentary. It's one of the more complex and interesting statistical measurements that uses hundreds of thousands of "events" to model probability, and of course it's not perfect, it can't go the final step and account for "dumb luck" or "bad luck" or the mood/form/quality of the guy taking the shot or the guy trying to save it but it's pretty reliable indicator of not just quantity but quality of chance being created.
To back up it's viability just look at a league table calculated using XP (Expected points) calculated from XG/XGA in games and it pretty much reflects the traditional league table.
Nearly all top half teams slightly out perform their X/G and XGA (against) and nearly all bottom half underperform it, suggesting that better quality players make a difference.
The xg's from yesterday's games were almost identical, theirs accrued from probably double the events ours did. XG rated the biggest chance of the game Son's 2nd when clean through (0.48 xg).
I can.
It's meaningless bollocks made up to fit whatever "analysts" want to push.
It's a method of stating the obvious, and trying to lend gravitas to it by tagging it with a made up number.
Whilst it would be the icing on the cake to beat them to secure 4th, my anxiety would be better if it was wrapped up before.I just want top 4 wrapped up before we play the gooners. Then beat them at home to wind them up even more so they are at boiling point.
Luckily their run (and also Chelsea's) gives me a bit of confidence we will get champions league regardless now.
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Not convinced xG is much more than a video game, American style extra stat thrown in to stat pad the 'useful' stats themselves.
When a side is 2 or 3 goals up they won't need to push for more xG.
I'm not sure it takes into account the flow of the move, position of opposition players, technique used on the assisting pass, which leagues the stats are generated analysing, position of the sun blinding, players body position receiving, ball arriving to weaker foot etc.
I have watched enough football to know the chances we created against Villa were worthy of 2-3 goals. The chances Villa created were worthy of a similar number.
They played well and the score line massively flattered us, but we just have an obscene amount of raw quality up front, and when 2 or 3 of them are firing on all cylinders - only the Liverpool front line comes close to what we have.
Watched in a sports bar in Tampere, Finland. Weird as I was cheering goals going in alone, then the rest of the bar were cheering when the replayed goals went in. I don't think they were actively supporting Tottenham - everyone was wearing the same coloured ice hockey shirts just cheering and enjoying good football whilst a mini blizzard was going on outside.
Chuffed with this weekend football anyway! Coys
When a side is 2 or 3 goals up they won't need to push for more xG.
I'm not sure it takes into account the flow of the move, position of opposition players, technique used on the assisting pass, which leagues the stats are generated analysing, position of the sun blinding, players body position receiving, ball arriving to weaker foot etc.
I have watched enough football to know the chances we created against Villa were worthy of 2-3 goals. The chances Villa created were worthy of a similar number.
They played well and the score line massively flattered us, but we just have an obscene amount of raw quality up front, and when 2 or 3 of them are firing on all cylinders - only the Liverpool front line comes close to what we have.
Watched in a sports bar in Tampere, Finland. Weird as I was cheering goals going in alone, then the rest of the bar were cheering when the replayed goals went in. I don't think they were actively supporting Tottenham - everyone was wearing the same coloured ice hockey shirts just cheering and enjoying good football whilst a mini blizzard was going on outside.
Chuffed with this weekend football anyway! Coys
"Not accounting for dumb/bad luck" or the fluctuations of players' mindset or form throughout a game is what makes it flawed...
and, dare I say it, misses half the point of why we love football.... It ISNT perfect, mistakes are. Made, and THAT'S the beauty of it... You CAN'T, nor should you be able to predict it...
It's trying to take guesswork, opinion and surprise out of the game altogether...
Xg is just a glorified video game stat generator....
Players aren't machines...
Had it been around back then, Xg wouldn't have accounted for Gerrard's slip v Chelsea, or Mendes' dissallowed goal at Old Trafford... Or Trippiers' o.g v Chelsea...
or countless other slips, brainfarts and gaffes down the years that have won or lost titles, let alone games!
At best, it's an after the event 'Woulda Coulda Shoulda' gaming app that becomes infuriating when you look back at 'what you COULD have won!
Bloody X-Box gaming generation ruining REAL football!
Football is the game it is because of ALL ITS IMPERFECTIONS!
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I think you are missing the point of it and over exaggerating it's use ... Its just an extra statistic to be used alongside shots/shots on target which is more accurate as it actually takes into account the quality of those chances. Shots have been recorded and compared long before the X-box generation!