We were 25 points off 1st last season. A striker and a winger ain't catching that many points up. The goal has to be top 4 and narrow the gap to around 10 points. This will be a tough season, there are 8 decent teams trying for 6 spots to play in CL or Europa.I think you're right. And consequently I don't see us finishing much higher than we did last year.
Newcastle and Man U will be better than last season. No European games this season helps them. Newcastle had an even worse injury run than we did and Man U couldn't score any goals. The top 2 from last year will be strong again. Chelsea are a weird squad, very inconsistent, they started playing decent in the back half of the season. Liverpool might take time to get going under new manager and Villa might struggle with CL.
We seem to have better depth than last season but will need it with Europa. A couple of big signings that can help our starting team is what we need to push for top 4.