Absolutely, we would have been 16 points clear with a win - effectively 17 with GD and Weat ham would not have had any momentum. TF would likely still be in the job and this thread would be vastly smaller
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Management Relegation
- Thread starter simon j
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It’s not me that needs the belief, it is and always has been up to the players - if they show fight then the fans will respond
Bolded bit is a negative!
They have 4 home games against Leeds, Wolves, Everton and Bournemouth - that’s absolutely that standard.
They’ve also matched an in form Man United and lost narrowly to Chelsea - get your head out the sand
They’ve just won away to us and Villa an have a decent manager - they won’t be anywhere near it.
But still true
We have so few players fit, surely we should be able to recall one or two from loan. This run in is going to need a huge exertion
It’s a total crap shoot. Anything could happen. I think we have a chance now though, we were going down with Frank.
Us on 49 pts?! I can't see it.
Favourable on paper isn’t the same as guaranteed in reality. Even if they win those four, that only gets them around level on points with us. They’d still need more on top of that, which would mean going on one of the best runs in the league over the last 13 games. Does that really sound like a side that’s managed six wins all season?
You’re also skipping over the fact we’ve got home games against Palace, Forest, Brighton and Leeds. With a new manager who won’t set us up anything like Frank did, you’d expect a decent return from those alone. So West Ham don’t just need four wins. They need significantly more, plus us collapsing at the same time.
That isn’t burying my head in the sand. It’s just basic points-per-game maths.
You do realise we've won just 7 games? So let's not pretend we're having a much better season than them.
Tudor is a defensive manager.
We've not won a league game since Dec 28...no home win since Dec 6...home record reads W2 D4 L7...beat Burnley & Brentford but drew vs Wolves/Utd/Sunderland/City and lost to B'mouth/Villa/Scum/Fulham/Dippers/Spam/Barcodes...with Woolwich next up.
So let's not act like us picking up decent points vs Palace, Forest, Brighton & Leeds is a given.
Let me break it down.
We’ve got 12 games left. If both sides simply carry on at their current points-per-game (0.88ppg versus 1ppg) over last 12 games onto the next 12, we would finish with around 39-40 points and West Ham would be on 36.
And that already assumes we don’t improve at all while West Ham, carry on in the form they’re in. Football rarely follows neat paper predictions looking at specific games. If our fixtures aren’t guaranteed, neither are theirs. You can’t hand one side assumed wins and deny the same logic to the other.
The real measure here is PPG, not raw win totals. For West Ham to genuinely overhaul us, they’d need roughly a 40% jump in performance, while we simultaneously stay awful with zero improvement. That’s the scenario you’re relying on.
As for the manager point, Tudor has a clear pattern. He gets quick results in the short term, even if it doesn’t always sustain over longer periods. But that’s irrelevant to the brief. He hasn’t been brought in for a three-year rebuild, he is here just to deliver a lift across the next 12 matches. Replicate that short-term impact and the job’s basically done. And even if the bounce is only slight rather than dramatic, a small uptick from our current level is likely enough to keep us safe anyway.
Yes, the season’s been poor. Nobody sensible is denying that. But the leap from “bad season”to “they’re definitely catching us” doesn’t come from the maths. It only works if West Ham improve sharply and we don’t improve at all, and that avoids also the other teams in the mix like Forest, Leeds, Palace and Brighton.
So instead of listing past results like they predict the future, look at the trajectory and the PPG. Once you do, the doom narrative looks a lot less convincing.
It will be interesting to see what the point tally required is this year to avoid relegation. The highest points total a team has been relegated with is 42 (West Ham[1]). The average 'safe' points tally in PL history is 35.53 - rounded up to 36 points. No team in the last nine campaigns have earned 36 points and been relegated. Given the teams in danger of finishing in 17th place, I think it will be a lot closer to 40 points being required this year.
[1] It would be very funny if West Ham got relegated again on 42 points.
[1] It would be very funny if West Ham got relegated again on 42 points.
But the doom narrative is always there... looking at you and smiling... not quite within touching distance but close enough that you can feel its breath... if the inevitable happens against Woowich and we do our usual no show at the Cottage then lets say West Ham beat Bournemouth which is doable in their current form. They probably won't get anything at Anfield but 5 points is now 2. Palace at home for me is our biggest game of the season. It's the first game you mark down as winnable and we absolutely have to get the 3 points.
All very solid analysis with a solid sprinkle of common sense. One factor not considered though is injuries. We are only an injury to Simons away from having zero creativity in our team. Missing players like ...
Porro
Udogie
Danso
Romero (3 more games plus he is only 2 yellows from another 2 game ban)
Davies
Bentancur
Bergvall
Maddison
Kulusevski
Kudus
Odobert
Richarlison
... is such a significant crisis it impacts us much more than anything our rivals (Forest, West Ham, Leeds etc.) are going through. Worryingly, West Ham are on a real upturn in form since they beat us and it looks sustainable momentum. I am hoping Palace drop like a stone after they lost Guehi and Mateta (to injury), and Glasner has said he's off at the end of the season.
It is crucial we get players back from injury and do not suffer any more. The March international break could be a godsend for us, but could also be a poisoned chalice. I am hoping the club do not release any of our players to play in international friendlies even though the WC is looming (the way Ferguson would not have let Man U players join up in the middle of an injury crisis. We simply cannot afford any injuries to key players like Solanke, Van de Ven, Simons, Sarr, Gallagher etc.
I hope
not. With Woolwich, Liverpool and Chelsea left. We are essentially looking for our points from 9 games. 5 wins from 9 is something we haven’t been close to for sometime.
Have you seen them lately? Could have easily won against united and Chelsea , they don’t look like a team who is getting relegated, i think they will stay up
If we can’t then let’s be honest we deserve to get relegated!
I actually get the doom feeling. Visually, emotionally, the mood around the club, it is very bleak. Anyone pretending otherwise is kidding themselves. When results, performances and confidence all line up in the wrong direction, of course it feels like the trap door is opening.
But this is where I separate feeling from reality. I try to anchor on numbers and probabilities. Because doom always feels inevitable right up until the moment it isn’t. Football’s full of sides that looked finished and then picked up two wins and suddenly everyone rewrites the story.
Your scenario is possible, sure. Lose the next two, West Ham win one, gap shrinks fast, pressure goes through the roof. But it relies on specific outcomes all lining up perfectly. It also ignores that Forest have Liverpool, Brighton next and Leeds have Villa and City. So while West Ham might pick up points, we’d still have three or four teams all in the mix. That’s a lot of moving parts for the worst case to actually materialise.
You’re right about Palace at home though. That’s a huge game. Win it and the table, mood all changes.
So yeah, I understand the darkness around it all, I’m just not at the we are definitely going down stage.
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Yeah we need to stop getting more injuries, but hopefully March is the month we get some key players back. Also think Tudors formation will help with the players only have available.
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