I agree. I won’t be happy until we hit 40 points.
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Management Relegation
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You’re cherry-picking the exact run of games that suits your point and calling it objective maths. Why five games? We’ve got twelve left, so why not use the last twelve? Because that framing doesn’t help the argument.
Also, if 0.8 ppg vs 0.5ppg since start of the year is your idea of “pissing all over,” then we’re clearly working with different definitions.
Because 5 games is a good barometer of form over usually a month of league games. 12 games is 3 months, a lot can happen in 3 months . It's enough games to paint a picture. Even if you go back 7 games, we're still behind all of the clubs around us. And that's a >50% swing in points. That is significant.
Yes , that's what it reminded me of - The Miracle of PeckhamYou just need Del Boy now!
No, Five or seven games is only a “good barometer” when it tells the story you want.
You’re right that a lot can happen in three months. That cuts both ways. A new manager bounce, a clearer approach geared towards actually winning games, confidence returning to key players, and injured lads coming back in. Form isn’t fixed in stone just because of one tidy data slice.
A >50% swing sounds dramatic, but survival isn’t decided by percentages in isolation, it’s decided by whether teams can consistently hit the required points per game. Right now, that proof still isn’t there.
Jesus, your bottom paragraph illustrates the point that we're less consistent than the teams around us. Sure why no go back to the 2010's for form while we're at it.
New manager bounce could happen, hopefully it does, but there's absolutely no guarantee, and since January we've mustered up a whole 3 points. Teams around us are all on better form. Every single one of them. And when you're generating 0.5 points a game compared to 0.8, over 3 games that's a point difference give or take. We're dealing with fine margins now and every point is massive.
And while we're at it and we go back to your 12 games. Of all the relagation candidates for that last spot, we've only gained more points than Palace. So even longer term, we're still behind them. So these aren't %'s in isolation at all.
Yeah I think this could be a high points tally for survival. Every team above 19th is at least competent and West Ham have momentum on their side.
Think it might be the first season in a long time where the 40 points cliche is actually true. Can easily see West Ham, Forest and Leeds getting high 30s at the very least.
You’re still mixing up short snapshots with outcomes and acting like they’re the same thing.
Yes, the recent consistency’s been poor. Nobody’s arguing otherwise. But you’re stretching or shrinking the window depending on which version makes us look worst, then calling it predictive. Form tables don’t decide survival, total points do particularly. The only question that matters is who actually hits the required ppg from here. If there are 12 games left, the logical barometer to compare form over the same sample size is the last 12 games. If we applied the ppg from the last 12 games to the remaining 12, Brighton would finish around 43 points, West Ham 36, Tottenham 39, Forest 39, and Crystal Palace 44, Leeds 43. Thats the real picture of where these trends put each club.
You even said yourself that 12 games is a long time, yet you’re trying to use short-term form as hard evidence of what will happen over that same long period. That’s a contradiction, not analysis.
Add to that the difficulty of remaining fixtures, where difficulty charts have Palace and West Ham scored as having the toughest remaining schedules, Forest slightly easier, while we sit with Brighton around 10th–11th most difficult. Leeds are listed as having the easiest run of the remaining 12 games, which further complicates simplistic comparisons based purely on ppg.
And the fine margins point cuts both ways. If the gaps are tiny, they’re fragile. One win flips the picture. That’s the reality of relegation scraps every single season, not some fixed downward trend that can’t change.
With Frank gone, the situation is completely different. I don't think we'd have gone down anyway, but I definitely think we stay up now.
Either West Ham or Forest will be relegated.
I expect us to be unrecognisable under Tudor. The days of watching us cowering in sterile, unadventurous, timid, toothless play will, hopefully, be a distant memory by the time we play Fulham. Woolwich may come too soon for Tudor's real impact, but I think we'll get 7-9 points from the next 5 games after that one. Tudor will be gone come Summer, but the stink of Frank's tenure will be gone too.
Either West Ham or Forest will be relegated.
I expect us to be unrecognisable under Tudor. The days of watching us cowering in sterile, unadventurous, timid, toothless play will, hopefully, be a distant memory by the time we play Fulham. Woolwich may come too soon for Tudor's real impact, but I think we'll get 7-9 points from the next 5 games after that one. Tudor will be gone come Summer, but the stink of Frank's tenure will be gone too.
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It’s close between Forest and West Ham. Tho I do think Forest will pick up the least points from now on. Forest made two huge mistakes: 1) appointing Ange 2) sacking Dyche
Just stop.
Based on your logic, we'd have won the league in about 4 seasons because of our first 10-12 games.
Form changes. You have to look at the direction of travel.
The Ange thing is hilarious. And yet he's out there claiming it's everyone else.
The fact the guy he replaced could send his ex-team down says it all.
You’ve just conceded the key point without noticing. Form changes. Exactly.
So a new manager, a reset in mentality, and a tweak in approach can shift momentum back the other way.
And no one said we’d win the league off the first 10–12 games. That’s just exaggeration and would only been a talking point if still top with 10-12 games left of the season, we still had 28. Big difference. I only showed the form as a guide to our existing direction of travel, and even if we simply carried on that same trajectory, we’d likely be fine anyway.
I’m simply trying to find a positive rather than just accepting the doom and gloom of declaring us relegated when we’re clearly not. New manager, mental reset, proof we can take points when it clicks.
In a relegation fight, that’s a positive.
I agree, I think they're in the shit. I also think Brighton are in free fall.
You can be positive about our prospects whilst also recognising that West Ham of 2026 is a considerably better side than that of 2025.
They appear to have bought well in January compared to us, and their "new" manager has had enough time to get his point across.
We also, in typical Dr Tottenham fashion, gave them all the confidence they needed.
Without the injuries I would be very confident.
But we have no margin for error - what if we get more injuries?
We should have waited until the end of the window to make decisions on Yang and Solomon. Neither of which are any worse than Odobert and Tel.
We also should have signed a better backup than Kinsky.
We will probably be ok - because we have favourable fixtures and have some players coming back.
Kudus and Bergvall are the ones we need..
But we have no margin for error - what if we get more injuries?
We should have waited until the end of the window to make decisions on Yang and Solomon. Neither of which are any worse than Odobert and Tel.
We also should have signed a better backup than Kinsky.
We will probably be ok - because we have favourable fixtures and have some players coming back.
Kudus and Bergvall are the ones we need..
Forest have good players and could easily turn it around and nick a few wins. Their manager is pretty decent IMO and more likely to get their good players going than bloody Dyche
Yes, recent results look more positive for West Ham, I can grant you that. But let’s not start fawning over them like they’ve suddenly turned into world beaters. A short uptick in form isn’t proof of anything unless it’s sustained.
If they do keep it going, then fair play, they acted decisively in January while our owners didn’t. But we’ve now also made changes, so the only honest answer is to wait and see how it actually plays out on the pitch rather than declaring the story finished in February.
God,I hope you're right. The alternative is dreadfulWith Frank gone, the situation is completely different. I don't think we'd have gone down anyway, but I definitely think we stay up now.
Either West Ham or Forest will be relegated.
I expect us to be unrecognisable under Tudor. The days of watching us cowering in sterile, unadventurous, timid, toothless play will, hopefully, be a distant memory by the time we play Fulham. Woolwich may come too soon for Tudor's real impact, but I think we'll get 7-9 points from the next 5 games after that one. Tudor will get gone come Summer, but the stink of Frank's tenure will be gone too.
I'm not so sure. They do have some decent players I agree. Though they have a hard run-in, and i doubt the players agree with Dyche going. They are in a loony bin and will know it . Don't think second manager will have same bounce effect either.
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