For this topic, credit these guys: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Tottenham.html
You're right, for football it's really complex. I've done my own for Formula 1 before (and I made a few pennies that way too), but football is much much harder. Note that he has used a "weighted" method - that is to say, he takes into account that some of our remaining games are against strong clubs. But you can also run his analysis "unweighted" - click top-left on "50/50" Method, and what this tells you is that, if our remaining opponents were an average mix of Premier League clubs we would be 8% more likely to finish in the top four... In other words, we have a tough run-in.
You're right, for football it's really complex. I've done my own for Formula 1 before (and I made a few pennies that way too), but football is much much harder. Note that he has used a "weighted" method - that is to say, he takes into account that some of our remaining games are against strong clubs. But you can also run his analysis "unweighted" - click top-left on "50/50" Method, and what this tells you is that, if our remaining opponents were an average mix of Premier League clubs we would be 8% more likely to finish in the top four... In other words, we have a tough run-in.
