Episode 30 questions

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Campbell's existence brought to an end or an injury to Wilshire that put him out for a number of years never to be the 'same' player again?
 
As per my thread here and where it theoretically leaves us, can you see a similar set of outcomes in each match or a simialr record, i.e. 5 wins, 4 losses and 1 draw? Where do you see any differences?

Liverpool Won
Fulham Won
Swansea Won
Everton Lost
Chelsea Lost
Man City Lost
Wigan Lost
Southampton Won
Stoke Draw
Sunderland Won
 
Inspired by a ArtyB post originally posted in the Video SFW thread

Mila Kunis gets invited to a Watford match...



Dilemma: Mila Kunis asks you to take her to a Watford match, but if you do you have to dump Spurs and follow them for the rest of your life. In return, Mila will fulfill your every desire until it probably kills you. What do you choose?
 
Inspired by a ArtyB post originally posted in the Video SFW thread



Dilemma: Mila Kunis asks you to take her to a Watford match, but if you do you have to dump Spurs and follow them for the rest of your life. In return, Mila will fulfill your every desire until it probably kills you. What do you choose?

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Will she look like this before or after the match?
 
This week saw the passing of William "Paul Bearer" Moody, one of the greatest managers pro-wrestling has ever seen, and we're a few weeks away from Wrestlemania, wrestling's Superbowl/FA Cup Final. If the Cocks were WWF/E Superstars, what would their name be/what would be their gimmick?
 
If you listened to some fans, you would think we have got 4th already, and plenty of fans have invented scenarios where we end up third, but the reality is that we have by far the hardest run-in between us and Woolwich / Chelsea. According to fairly sophisticated statistical analysis of over 17 million possible remaining results combinations (I won't bore you) there is still a 21% chance that we finish outside the top 4. I know it's just statistics, but at least the numbers show that there is still a real chance that we won't make it to 4th, so I hope the team do not think it's all over yet. What does the pod think, is 4th ours now?
 
If you listened to some fans, you would think we have got 4th already, and plenty of fans have invented scenarios where we end up third, but the reality is that we have by far the hardest run-in between us and Woolwich / Chelsea. According to fairly sophisticated statistical analysis of over 17 million possible remaining results combinations (I won't bore you) there is still a 21% chance that we finish outside the top 4. I know it's just statistics, but at least the numbers show that there is still a real chance that we won't make it to 4th, so I hope the team do not think it's all over yet. What does the pod think, is 4th ours now?

By the way, in case you were wondering, according to the same analysis, currently the chance of us finishing fourth is 34%, third is 37%, second is 9% and the chance of being premier league champions is 0.02% (!)
 

:sneaky: Nerds rule the World, T, didn't you know? I'm not much into mathematics, but I do make a pretty penny on Betfair... (mwahh-haaa-haaa-haaa).

p.s. Look up Monte Carlo Analysis if you want to know how this is done. You'll be amazed what it can do for your Fantasy Teams too. To be fair, they are only stats, and what they don't predict are: injuries, sudden good or bad player form, and psychology (bottling it, complacency etc.). Use with caution...
 
what they don't predict are: injuries, sudden good or bad player form, and psychology (bottling it, complacency etc.).
Depends, actually, since injuries, shifts in form, and bottling it do emerge in statistical tallies, and there's reason to suspect such things are "predictable" in the sense that previous suggests future. Monte Carlo has been put to amazingly good use in baseball, but here I'll reroast that hoary old chestnut that getting the data to be able to run simulations in football is a much bigger ask than it is in baseball.

Who is doing these simulations? What are they using as a dataset?
 
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