Get on the record now: Pochettino's margin of error

[cahspur]

I agree that finishing outside of the top 7 would be pretty poor but I'll give him a bit more leeway and say top half, especially if we don't bring in anymore players. I just don't think the board is going to cut him loose unless we show absolutely no ability this season and, while outside of the top 7 is poor, a bottom half is just unacceptable.

If you think of it from the angle of the results it would require to finish in those positions, rather the actual position, that's where I think eighth would be untenable. Think of all the matches we screwed up in last year, the two points out of a possible 24 we picked up against the top four, the 45% count of goals conceded due to own goal or error - and we somehow still managed to pull sixth. Liverpool surprised most, Everton showed stunning improvement in one year under a new coach, and we still finished sixth.

It would take something drastic for us to finish outside of the top seven with this squad, almost a concerted effort of sabotage. So I don't think it's the position specifically that would do him in, but rather the sheer quantity of shocking results that would do so. If de Boer is still at Ajax at that point, and we do that poorly with this squad, I don't think Poch has much of a chance.

 

[jimmyriggle]

Not that I'll be frothing from the mouth if we finish below 8th, but as people said, even last year's cluster fuck had us finishing 6th.

The premier league is now quite clearly split between an elite of 6 or 7 teams and then the rest. However, I don't think it's beyond a club like Newcastle to have another freak season of doing well, so I'll go with 8th. I don't want us sacking a manager yet again, but with this squad anything lower than that and something seriously wrong will have happened. The only caveat I have is if we have an enormous injury list or some sort of tragedy/ points deduction happens.


For the record I'd take 16th place and a Europa league win all day.

 

[Millbanks]

We need European football, regardless. To not have that, given we are not a shoe-in for top 4 if we have a season out of Europe, would be a major loss for us, in my opinion.

I've gone for 7th, which I would reluctantly accept, depending on cup runs and who wins FA cup etc to decide whether 5th, 6th and 7th qualify for Europa.

I know a lot of people hate it, but I love watching Spurs as much as possible, and to not be involved in the midweek games would be a big step back.

 

[cahspur]

Given the results it would require to finish outside of the top seven, I think it would require some extremely poor performances from the players we have on hand. Hell, even with all the shenanigans of last year we finished sixth, Man U were absolutely shockingly poor at home and still managed seventh, and Newcastle put up something like 17 or 18 points in the second half of the season and still managed to grab ninth. As such, I think eighth or worse and he sees the door. Absolutely no excuse to not finish in the top seven with the squad we have.

 

[Joe Clash]

We'll be in 3rd or 4th for most of the season, drifting out to 5th when we fail to address our problems in January. LFC will be the media whipping boys with an under performing, disjointed team, with Rodgers being sacked having been 5-0 up against Burnley with 7 minutes to go, and losing 7-5. Lovren 6 og's and a Dean Marney penalty. And I'll really laugh.

 

[Tomo]

I think in many ways we are unlucky, two seasons ago everyone at the top was average, average enough that man united could play shit every game and still win the title.

Now we have mourhino, rogers, Martinez, pelegrini,van gaal and a seemingly rejuvenated wenger at the helm of our rivals.

Chelsea - Mourinho now has a proper team that has balance with Costa and fabregas

Woolwich - stability combined with a few recent great purchases

Man city- brilliance combined with experience

Man united - the genius of van gaal over the mediocrity of moyes.

Liverpool- good manager and good signings I don't think Suarez loss will destroy then as much as people think

Everton - weaker squad than us but more stable and really good manager.

I think we will come either 5th or 6th, would like a good cup run this year.

 

[Guido 🇺🇦]

8th so long as we:
1. Give 100%. I expect each and every player that puts on the Lillywhite shirt to give everything he has for his team mates, for his manager, for the club and for the fans. I will clap them off the pitch if they give everything they have but still loose, no shame in that. This is a minimum.
2. Signs of us playing attractive football again
3. No spankings
4. He conducts himself with dignity, doesn't act like a cunt with the press or on the sidelines. Oh and when we sing your name give us a wave there's a good fella.

 

[Super Jan Fan]

We were shite last season. Double shite in fact. And we still got sixth, so that's the minimum for me. Stupid that it's not an option on the poll given out last manager with just half a season got sacked for finishing there...

The problem I see is that Citeh, Chelski, and Woolwich will all certainly finish ahead if us. So we'd need both Manure and Lolerpool to screw up in order to get fourth...they both have decent managers.
Let's hope we win a cup and put on a good show in the league.

 

[S.L.R]

While there's a temptation to set the bar low out of desire for managerial stability, if we were losing week in, week out, people would start to care less about managerial stability and more about managerial competency. So I'm going with cahspur as his point about the actual results that would take us to lower than that is accurate.

As much as we just want a managerial appointment to be successful for once (or what seems like "for once"), I'm not sure what would have to happen for a manager to finish say, tenth, but still show that something promising is being developed. I suppose a number of games where we played like Gods and pummelled the shit out of some teams, especially one or two big teams. Then you could say that the makings are there and we need to give the manager time to build consistency. That seems even less likely to happen than just finishing tenth in a bog standard way though.

It would still be a clusterfuck to see him sacked though obviously. I highly doubt he'll let us fall down to eighth or below.

 

[ILSpur]

During the absolute clusterfuck of the 2013-2014 season, we still managed to come in 6th. We had injuries on top of injuries, two managers, bland tactics, a team with practically 1/2 of the players never having any real competitive action together under their belt, and an apparent many-season low in terms of attitude and morale.

If we don't get at least 7th, I can't see how we could really justify the results.

That being said, one of the most important things for me is going to be HOW we play. We all want results and we all want to fight our way to the top, but the reality is that there are going to be bad losses, unfair ties, and the like. I personally think that the biggest reason people lost faith with AVB so quickly was due to how bland and nonchalant we looked during his time at the helm. If we get a bad loss or tie but we look positive and work hard, many sins are forgiven.

 

[Benjamin]

I keep saying it. If poch plays Townsend, Lennon, soldado, naughton and rose, it will be another gamble with cricket scores.

If he plays my style (eriksen, Lamela, ade and Kane) I think it will be a slow start including a few disappointing early months but long term, once things click and they get used to each other I think we will have a team that can challenge for top 4 and trophies.

So I can't answer this until I know his lineups.

From the sounds of that response, you've already made up your mind. If he doesn't use the lineups you expect to do well you appear to already want him gone.

 

[Benjamin]

Correct. Mind blown?

Why would my mind be blown by laziness?

 

[Joe Clash]

Avoiding historic mistakes isn't lazy. It can be said soldado, Townsend, Lennon scoring what? 10 prem goals combined and even less assists in a season cost AVB his job. Did naughton or rose do him any favors?

We're talking Poch here not AVB. By that rationale no manager could ever make a difference with the same players.

 

[Joe Clash]

When Sherwood brought in ade, Kane, eriksen and one of Townsend or Lennon was dropped or injured, we got a records points average even with gonzo team shapes and midfields. And weak links were the flanks with rose and naughton making life hard for us.

I know your views on those players, and our wing play last season, but we're talking Poch here, and can he make a difference with same players.

By the way did you see his quote about squad trimming?

“We have a long, long squad,” Pochettino said. "I think we need to take a decision now to decide how many players to keep, because we have more than 25. For me, too many players. My idea is 25. No more than 25. We need to decide now, after our tour in America, and start to work here and decide our squad for the future.”

 

[Nate the Great]

Whats Gibbs was saying was that our position come end of season will also be dependant on who Poch plays. And if, like Gibbs said, Poch uses the same players that hurt as last season, then they will probably hurt us again this season because they just don't have the ability. Thus, our position won't be stellar. 7 or 8. This season I'm expecting 6 or below if Poch uses the right squad.

 

[Joe Clash]

I know... but the climate of things with Poch is that he can transform ALL of our players.

No he can't I agree, but Gibbsy didn't want much trimming originally - he wanted Poch to work with what we've got. He's allowed to change his mind of course. I said in another thread I thought the squad was bloated and I will be interested to see who goes.

 

[Nate the Great]

Ha ha he's not usually. He normally sticks to his guns like glue. The guy is tenacious, I'll give him that.

That's what I thought originally haha. I saw a fair share of it in the transfer thread hahaha.

 

[Drewinho]

I know... but the climate of things with Poch is that he can transform ALL of our players.

With an effective and cohesive tactic average players can perform at a much higher level. If the likes of Lennon and Naughton can understand what Pochettino wants, I think they can be good enough for us this season.

I doubt everyone will improve vastly but we should see a decent improvement from most.

 

[Legacy Lilywhite]

For me it's 6th, taking some points off the CL teams and playing good football too. We have the squad and resources to challenge the Big 5 and it would be totally unacceptable to finish below e.g. Everton or Newcastle. 'Echo Of Glory' comes from aiming high, not slushing around in mid table mediocrity. It would also seem harsh on previous managers if MP is allowed to get away with less achievement than the likes of Harry, AVB and Sherwood were all sacked for.

 

[Louisiana Hotspur]

Before anyone even starts about this being a negative thread, first of all, relax, it's just for fun and I expect good things from Poch like most of us. But it's also not meant to be negative. I want people to be on record before the season starts, acknowledging that we are giving this manager some leeway and time to build even if the transition isn't always rosy. But just how much leeway theoretically?

*for consistency's sake assume we exit with a halfway run in the cups and Europa.