Is Top 4 Gone Now And What Would Be The Ramifications?

Is Top 4 Gone?


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Says it all that either Ole, Lampard or Arteta will win a trophy before Pochettino

Indeed. As managers, the sum total of managerial experience between the three of them was a few months at Cardiff (getting them relegated), one season at Derby County (failing to get them promoted) and the part time Norwegian pub league.
 

Igula

Suspended
I would have been long of the view that the Europa league is a waste of time and you could do without spending the early hours of Friday morning flying home from the likes of Azerbaijan and Montenegro after playing some glorified pub team.

I’m not for a moment suggesting we’re going to win the League next season, but it’s worth noting that league title wins for first season managers Ranieri at Leicester in 2015/16 and Conte at the Chavs in 2016/17 and Brendan Rodgers almost at Liverpool in 2013/14 were in seasons where all three had no European football and all three remained practically injury free, all season.

Not having any European football should assist us domestically. For all the doom and gloom, it is worth noting if you did a league table since Mourinho took over, we’d be 4th in the league and 3rd in a league table over the 7 rounds since resumption in mid June.

Those seasons did not have teams close to as powerful as City of Liverpool. Leicester winning had a lot more to do with it being an incredibly down year for the big teams rather than them being out of Europe.

The teams that have had success in this league have done so much more often while being in Europe than without. The teams that have had long term success have done so while being in Europe.
 
Those seasons did not have teams close to as powerful as City of Liverpool. Leicester winning had a lot more to do with it being an incredibly down year for the big teams rather than them being out of Europe.

The teams that have had success in this league have done so much more often while being in Europe than without. The teams that have had long term success have done so while being in Europe.

We do not have a squad to sustain both a domestic and a European campaign and we won’t next season.

The teams that have had success in the EPL era are the two Manchesters and Chelsea, who have won it 22 out of 28 times between them.

I cited examples of outliers Liverpool 2013/14 and Leicester 2015/16 who prospered without the workload of European football. Chelsea in 2016/17 had finished the previous season in 10th.

We haven’t even had a squad for well over a decade that were capable of winning a League Cup or an FA Cup. Can’t see how we’d deal with the Thursday night/Sunday afternoon model of the Europa League.
 

Igula

Suspended
We do not have a squad to sustain both a domestic and a European campaign and we won’t next season.

The teams that have had success in the EPL era are the two Manchesters and Chelsea, who have won it 22 out of 28 times between them.

I cited examples of outliers Liverpool 2013/14 and Leicester 2015/16 who prospered without the workload of European football. Chelsea in 2016/17 had finished the previous season in 10th.

We haven’t even had a squad for well over a decade that were capable of winning a League Cup or an FA Cup. Can’t see how we’d deal with the Thursday night/Sunday afternoon model of the Europa League.

The fact that you have 3 examples out of 20 times that many options as teams that had success without Europe should show how little correlation there is between no Europe and success. It is a pretty rare thing that also had other factors at play that better explain the success teams had.

We 100% have a squad to have success in both. We have players like Sessegnon, Skipp, Cirkin, Tanganga, Parrott, Gedson plus new players we may bring in that have shown little or no ability to play in the EPL but we need to see what we have in them outside of training. The Europa League would be perfect for this.

Coming into next year we are at best a distant 5th in terms of talent in the EPL and would need a lot of luck or injuries to our rivals to even get a sniff at top 4. In the Europa League we would be one of the top teams with a much better chance of winning that than finishing top 4. If CL is the goal than being in EL next year is realistically the only way that is possible.

I don't get people that want to forgo Europe this year throwing away CL next year and possibly Europe again. and make it harder to give our young players a chance to develop.

There is zero reason to not want Europa League that make sense unless you think that us staying around 10th for the next 5 years is what's best for the club.
 
Literally nailed on isn’t it guys? If we haven’t been fucked over enough by these massive Cunts down the years like them winning the league at our ground and us missing out on CL to them on the last day because of food poisoning etc, these irritating bastards are going to win the Fa cup and end our Europa hopes ain’t they ? Why can’t we get some fucking luck for once as a club. We are forever cursed I swear 🤬
 
Literally nailed on isn’t it guys? If we haven’t been fucked over enough by these massive Cunts down the years like them winning the league at our ground and us missing out on CL to them on the last day because of food poisoning etc, these irritating bastards are going to win the Fa cup and end our Europa hopes ain’t they ? Why can’t we get some fucking luck for once as a club. We are forever cursed I swear 🤬
in my case then that's 71 years. good lord
 
The fact that you have 3 examples out of 20 times that many options as teams that had success without Europe should show how little correlation there is between no Europe and success. It is a pretty rare thing that also had other factors at play that better explain the success teams had.

We 100% have a squad to have success in both. We have players like Sessegnon, Skipp, Cirkin, Tanganga, Parrott, Gedson plus new players we may bring in that have shown little or no ability to play in the EPL but we need to see what we have in them outside of training. The Europa League would be perfect for this.

Coming into next year we are at best a distant 5th in terms of talent in the EPL and would need a lot of luck or injuries to our rivals to even get a sniff at top 4. In the Europa League we would be one of the top teams with a much better chance of winning that than finishing top 4. If CL is the goal than being in EL next year is realistically the only way that is possible.

I don't get people that want to forgo Europe this year throwing away CL next year and possibly Europe again. and make it harder to give our young players a chance to develop.

There is zero reason to not want Europa League that make sense unless you think that us staying around 10th for the next 5 years is what's best for the club.

The trade off in bad league results which seem to follow on the Sunday afternoon after late Thursday night Europa League is a good reason not to want to be in the Europa League.

We haven’t been in the Europa League group stages for 5 years so I don’t follow it that closely. One thing that you would be conscious of though is hearing sub consciously year in year out is how League performance on the Sunday afternoon tends to suffer after the late Thursday night.

I took the liberty of having a look at Man U results this season after Europa League group action and that’s borne out - they lost at Newcastle and West Ham less than 72 hours on from Europa League action and were also held to draws at Old Trafford by Aston Villa and Everton, ordinarily two of the worst sides in the league on the road.

I also had a look at results from 2015/16 the last time we were in the Europa League group stages. In a season where we were probably the closest challengers to eventual champions Leicester, we picked up a very poor 7 out of 18 points when we played on the Sunday after the Europa League group stages. A 2-2 draw at Swansea and a 1-2 home defeat to Newcastle standing out as particularly damaging results to our title challenge.

I just feel if we’re in Thursday night Europa League action, there’s a strong likelihood League form suffers on the Sunday.
 

Igula

Suspended
I don't see why playing on a Thursday versus a Wednesday or Tuesday would make any difference.

What I do know is that going from no Europe to CL the next year is almost impossible. It is much more common to go from bring in EL to CL the next year than it is to go from no Europe at all to CL.

Considering we are unlikely to make much of an improvement to our team through transfers, have zero young players that can come in to improve us or take big jumps in their performances it is highly unlikely that we are going to jump from 8th/9th/10th to CL. Europa gives us the best chance to do that and get time for our players.

The "hurt us playing Thursday/Sunday" only seems to apply to bad teams like Burnley, Everton, Southhampton. Teams like United (this year, 15-16), Us (2014-15) and Wolves this past year all have done fine with being in Europe and competing in the EPL that same season.
 
I don't see why playing on a Thursday versus a Wednesday or Tuesday would make any difference.

What I do know is that going from no Europe to CL the next year is almost impossible. It is much more common to go from bring in EL to CL the next year than it is to go from no Europe at all to CL.

Considering we are unlikely to make much of an improvement to our team through transfers, have zero young players that can come in to improve us or take big jumps in their performances it is highly unlikely that we are going to jump from 8th/9th/10th to CL. Europa gives us the best chance to do that and get time for our players.

The "hurt us playing Thursday/Sunday" only seems to apply to bad teams like Burnley, Everton, Southhampton. Teams like United (this year, 15-16), Us (2014-15) and Wolves this past year all have done fine with being in Europe and competing in the EPL that same season.

I’ve already pointed out to you, that Man U during the group stages this season of the Europa League lost at Newcastle and West Ham on the Sunday after Thursday night action and drew at Old Trafford against Aston Villa and Everton. That’s not doing fine for Man U.

The last time Mourinho presided over a Europa League campaign was with Man U in 2016/17. Their league results on the Sunday after group stage Europa League games read - lost at Watford, drew at home to Stoke, drew at home to Burnley, won at Swansea, drew at home to West Ham and predictably beat us. 9 points out of 18 in games mostly against weaker teams.

I’ve cited three precedents of Man U in 2016/17 and 2019/20, ourselves in 2015/26 provided a full breakdown of all results and point tallies out of 18 of 9, 8 and 7 in those three cases and yet you’re still running the line that the Thursday night/Sunday model doesn’t affect the big teams. It’s only a problem for the likes of Everton, Southampton and Burnley.

Wolves played 12 games in the Europa League this season before Christmas. They had to go through 6 preliminary round games by the end of August just to reach the group stages. Wolves didn’t win any of their first 6 league games. were second bottom after 6 and won just 2 of their first 11 league games. In a season where Wolves ultimately narrowly missed out on a Top 4 finish (which would have been their first Top 4 finish since 1970/71), Europa League commitments so early in the season and all that lost ground probably scuppered it for them.

I’ve had a look at our result card from 2014/15 when you said we did fine combining League and Europa League. My hunch was confirmed. We lost three home league games to West Brom, Newcastle and Stoke on the Sunday after group stage games.

You also referred to Man U doing fine combining league and Europe League in 2015/16. Man U were in the group stages of the European Cup in 2015/16
 
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Igula

Suspended
There is zero proof that any team lost games because they played on Thursday. Just because they lost a game after playing on Thursday does not mean that they lost because they played on Thursday.

In 2014/15 we played in Europa and finished top 4. Who cares what the result of an individual game was if the end result was top 4.

The vast majority of teams that finish top 4 do so while playing in Europe. If playing in Europe was such an awful thing as you suggest we would see a lot more teams without European football making the top 4 but the reality is that rarely happens.

You use Wolves as an example of Europa being negative, they have never had a season as good as this. They have remained competitive for a top 4 position despite playing in Europa, are you saying that we cannot match similar results as Wolves?

If we do not qualify for Europa League next year our chances to qualify for CL significantly drop and our chances for finishing higher in the table at best remain the same, if not lower as well.
 
There is zero proof that any team lost games because they played on Thursday. Just because they lost a game after playing on Thursday does not mean that they lost because they played on Thursday.

In 2014/15 we played in Europa and finished top 4. Who cares what the result of an individual game was if the end result was top 4.

The vast majority of teams that finish top 4 do so while playing in Europe. If playing in Europe was such an awful thing as you suggest we would see a lot more teams without European football making the top 4 but the reality is that rarely happens.

You use Wolves as an example of Europa being negative, they have never had a season as good as this. They have remained competitive for a top 4 position despite playing in Europa, are you saying that we cannot match similar results as Wolves?

If we do not qualify for Europa League next year our chances to qualify for CL significantly drop and our chances for finishing higher in the table at best remain the same, if not lower as well.

I have cited numerous examples of clubs over the last number of seasons, most relevantly ourselves in 2014/15 and 2015/16, where results on the Sunday after Europa League action tails off dramatically on the Sunday after Europa League action. I have provided full statistics on ourselves in 2014/15 and 2015/16, Man U in 2016/17 and Man U and Wolves this season.

Going back to the original point, you challenged me to cite one good reason why anybody wouldn’t want to be in the Europa League, that you couldn’t think of one.

I’ve provided you with my reason for not wanting to be in - there’s a very noticeable trend of League form suffering on a Sunday after late night Thursday night football.

You haven’t provided any hard facts to back up your position. You’re just engaging in soundbites like - it’ll be great for our young players to be playing glorified pub teams in Kazakhstan and the like and the potential problem that I have raised of poor League form is an issue for the Southampton and Burnleys of this world, not the likes of us or Man U. Well I’ve provided the results breakdown of how it has been a problem for us the last two seasons we were in this competition.

You’re just waffling, moving goalposts and not dealing with the issues that I have raised.

Your contributions here are full of inaccuracies. You stared that in 2014/15 we competed in the Europa League and finished 4th in the league. We didn’t, we finished 5th in the league in 2014/15.
 
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I just feel if we’re in Thursday night Europa League action, there’s a strong likelihood League form suffers on the Sunday.
Last time we were in the EL was 2016-17. We played Gent.
Game after away leg we won 3-0.(Fulham away)
Game after the home leg we won 4-0 (Stoke H)
The season you quote 2015-16 we played 5 home ties. We won 4 and lost 1 of the "games after"
5 away ties. Game after won 2 drew 2 lost 1.
Last 12 "games after"
W 8 D 2 L 2
 

Igula

Suspended
I have cited numerous examples of clubs over the last number of seasons, most relevantly ourselves in 2014/15 and 2015/16, where results on the Sunday after Europa League action tails off dramatically on the Sunday after Europa League action. I have provided full statistics on ourselves in 2014/15 and 2015/16, Man U in 2016/17 and Man U and Wolves this season.

Going back to the original point, you challenged me to cite one good reason why anybody wouldn’t want to be in the Europa League, that you couldn’t think of one.

I’ve provided you with my reason for not wanting to be in - there’s a very noticeable trend of League form suffering on a Sunday after late night Thursday night football.

You haven’t provided any hard facts to back up your position. You’re just engaging in soundbites like - it’ll be great for our young players to be playing glorified pub teams in Kazakhstan and the like and the potential problem that I have raised of poor League form is an issue for the Southampton and Burnleys of this world, not the likes of us or Man U. Well I’ve provided the results breakdown of how it has been a problem for us the last two seasons we were in this competition.

You’re just waffling, moving goalposts and not dealing with the issues that I have raised.

Your contributions here are full of inaccuracies. You stared that in 2014/15 we competed in the Europa League and finished 4th in the league. We didn’t, we finished 5th in the league in 2014/15.

Again you have shown zero proof that teams lose because they played a Europa tie just shown that they have lost after playing a Europa tie. Just because they both happened doesn't mean that one caused the other.

You haven't provided me with a good reason, a made up fear that we will do worse in the league when that hasn't been shown to be the case is not a good reason.

Yes I made a mistake it was 2015-16 we played in Europa and finished top 4, the year before we played in Europa at finished 5th, not exactly strong evidence against playing in Europa.

Again here are the hard facts- the vast majority of teams that finish in the top 4 played in Europe at the same time. The vast majority of the time that one of the top 6 six teams played in Europa they finished in a European spot the same season.

If having no Europe means a better result in the league how come teams outside of Europe so rarely have good finishes in the league? You have a few examples of teams that you keep going to because the list of teams that have success with no Europe is tiny. You keep trying to point to games without showing how playing in Europa league caused the loses.
 
Says it all that either Ole, Lampard or Arteta will win a trophy before Pochettino
There is just no good outcome with the FA cup now is there....the media will literally pull down their pants and have a wank if Ole wins it🤪Lampard will be touted for the England job🤦🏻
And Arteta will be the second coming of Wenger👻.....Worst of all, David Luiz will win yet another trophy, I mean David Luiz will win yet another trophy🤦🏻, another one, how is that even possible🤷‍♂️
 
Again you have shown zero proof that teams lose because they played a Europa tie just shown that they have lost after playing a Europa tie. Just because they both happened doesn't mean that one caused the other.

You haven't provided me with a good reason, a made up fear that we will do worse in the league when that hasn't been shown to be the case is not a good reason.

Yes I made a mistake it was 2015-16 we played in Europa and finished top 4, the year before we played in Europa at finished 5th, not exactly strong evidence against playing in Europa.

Again here are the hard facts- the vast majority of teams that finish in the top 4 played in Europe at the same time. The vast majority of the time that one of the top 6 six teams played in Europa they finished in a European spot the same season.

If having no Europe means a better result in the league how come teams outside of Europe so rarely have good finishes in the league? You have a few examples of teams that you keep going to because the list of teams that have success with no Europe is tiny. You keep trying to point to games without showing how playing in Europa league caused the loses.

Teams outside of Europe rarely have good finishes in the League? As I pointed out to you last night Leicester in 2015/16 and Chavs in 2016/17 had no European distractions, nor did Liverpool in 2013/14. That’s 2 almost 3 champions in the last 7 seasons who weren’t playing in Europe. Not a bad strike rate.

Its the same big city clubs in the Top 4 every season anyway. Since Everton finished 4th in 2004/05, in the 15 years since, the outlier of Leicester in 2015/16 is the only instance of a club outside the so called Big 6 finishing in the Top 4.

Despite an utter shambles of a season, we’re still going to finish 6th.
 

Igula

Suspended
Teams outside of Europe rarely have good finishes in the League? As I pointed out to you last night Leicester in 2015/16 and Chavs in 2016/17 had no European distractions, nor did Liverpool in 2013/14. That’s 2 almost 3 champions in the last 7 seasons who weren’t playing in Europe. Not a bad strike rate.

Its the same big city clubs in the Top 4 every season anyway. Since Everton finished 4th in 2004/05, in the 15 years since, the outlier of Leicester in 2015/16 is the only instance of a club outside the so called Big 6 finishing in the Top 4.

Despite an utter shambles of a season, we’re still going to finish 6th.

You are right if you include things that didn't happen it is almost an ok strike rate. But if you include things that did happen it is a poor rate and that is with you cherry pick the time frame to suit your argument and ignoring the other factors that played a much bigger role in those teams winning.
 
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