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Player Micky van de Ven
- Thread starter The Fighting Cock
- Start date
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This was expected based on Ange's last media spiel, no?
He basically said VDV and Romero are not playing this week.
Hmm, you're right that back/lay shows the margin, but the market still isn't necessarily probability, it's the implied likelihood from the collective view of gamblers. So, yes the net figure on Betfair is 15%.Not true. If you look on an exchange like Betfair, where you can see the prices for both 'back' and 'lay' (with the difference effectively being the 'margins' for each gambler), then you'll get a better idea. At present:
Back: 6.2 (16.1%)
Lay: 7.0 (14.3%)
They will tend to get closer as the event nears its completion and people are betting more, but looking at those two numbers, it seems reasonable to say that the market believes there is around 15% chance of us winning the EL - not the 17% Rich was suggesting, but far nearer to that than the "10% in pure statistical terms" that you are suggesting.
Richard Arlison if you ever want to see implied % odds, just Google "Implied odds" or "Implied probability calculator" etc and it will convert any type of betting syntax into an other of your choosing.
This is out of date but the most reputable I can find, and puts us at 9%. Being in the last 16 would increase the chances, but we are shite so who knows.
That's from September tho.Hmm, you're right that back/lay shows the margin, but the market still isn't necessarily probability, it's the implied likelihood from the collective view of gamblers. So, yes the net figure on Betfair is 15%.
This is out of date but the most reputable I can find, and puts us at 9%. Being in the last 16 would increase the chances, but we are shite so who knows.
Porto didn't reach the R16 direct so these odds will have changed.
Slavia Prague are out I think?
He's injured. And won't play again this season. Still no concensus on whether he needs another op....
I My name is Ozymandias, King of ITK; Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Wow. We are even below Slavia Prahahahaha.Hmm, you're right that back/lay shows the margin, but the market still isn't necessarily probability, it's the implied likelihood from the collective view of gamblers. So, yes the net figure on Betfair is 15%.
This is out of date but the most reputable I can find, and puts us at 9%. Being in the last 16 would increase the chances, but we are shite so who knows.
Ange will only keep saying he won't be available for the next match, until we are playing our last of the season.
Here is what we know.
He felt tightness after Chelsea game and ended up being out for another 2 months. He felt the same tightness in training the Saturday after the EL game and hasn't been seen since.
The fact he didn't play through the red zone and felt it in training makes me hope that it won't be serious. But if it is another bad strain then the club might just be tempted to send him into surgery and get him fixed up properly for next season. That would have him out for the rest of this season!
I'm still hopeful it's a minor strain and he'll be back training next week but the longer this goes on the worse it looks.
He felt tightness after Chelsea game and ended up being out for another 2 months. He felt the same tightness in training the Saturday after the EL game and hasn't been seen since.
The fact he didn't play through the red zone and felt it in training makes me hope that it won't be serious. But if it is another bad strain then the club might just be tempted to send him into surgery and get him fixed up properly for next season. That would have him out for the rest of this season!
I'm still hopeful it's a minor strain and he'll be back training next week but the longer this goes on the worse it looks.
Erm but we've qualified and others have gone out, so all other things being equal, our odds of winning will surely have improved significantly?Hmm, you're right that back/lay shows the margin, but the market still isn't necessarily probability, it's the implied likelihood from the collective view of gamblers. So, yes the net figure on Betfair is 15%.
This is out of date but the most reputable I can find, and puts us at 9%. Being in the last 16 would increase the chances, but we are shite so who knows.
Nevermind recent actions, even the exact same table from 25th October 2024, shown on Opta's Facebook page, shows our chance of winning to be 18%! So I've no idea what you think the above table is adding to the conversation. :/
View: https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=940436264779316&id=100064388545730&_rdr
There may well be something more recent, I've not looked - I'm just pointing out that your table from September had already changed significantly by end of October, nevermind now!
Would they?
I'm not sure I trust the club on injuries. It didnt look like they were going to tell us Udogie was going to have an operation at the end of last season. It was only revealed when he sent a photo from his hospital bed.
Anything could be the truth, but it doesnt look good he hasnt resurfaced at all.
As I said, it's out of date and we've reached the last 16.
I couldn't find anything more up to date, as I said.
My point is that bet/lay odds aren't statistical probability in football, they're just a guide.
So what was the point of posting it? What was it meant to add to the conversation when we already had TODAY'S figures from the Betfair Exchange? I assumed you were trying to justify your claim that we currently have a 10% chance of winning the EL - that table doesn't do that at all, infact if anything more recent versions of that table help to back up Rich's suggestion... :/
EDIT: Aha, you've updated above to explain. It doesn't do that either though - contrasting two odds that are 5 months' apart doesn't demonstrate any point - if you showed me the Betfair odds from late September, on the same day as your table, that might have been a different story.
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Basically our odds atm are 17-18% chance of winning it.
IMO Romero and VDV fit and firing makes that 30% ish
Let's hope we can get both fit by then.
I'd prefer to go with the BF exchange, in lieu of any other recent info, and say that our current chance is something like 15%. Personally I doubt that would change very significantly if VdV and Romero were totally cleared of any current injuries - maybe it would go to 18-20%, but it's all just speculation, we're all just giving our opinions on that bit, no one is 'right' or 'wrong'.
Where presumably all 3 of us do agree is in hoping that we can get them both fit very soon and have them playing week in week out permanently without all these problems.
Well, I'd certainly vote to exclude the mythical 10 games from our mean. How would you define our mean, out of interest?I doubt it is bollocks, as it totally makes sense statistically / logically - teams most often sack their managers when they have just been through a terrible run of results, so the next few results after terrible run of results (whether you sack the manager or not) is statistically likely to be better. Which is exactly what you've just said.So for me it's not bollocks at all, it makes perfect sense.
With respect to all concerned, responses above like "There is solid evidence that bottom half PL teams have a bounce" simply suggest that the poster does not understand what the analysis is saying, i.e. they are confusing a 'bounce' or 'improved results caused by manager change' with simple 'reversion to the mean'.
So the analyses - and there are quite a few, though they don't all agree - tend to look at runs of games pre and post sacking. Sometimes quite long runs. There are strengths and weaknesses acknowledged in the various methodologies, but some of them do involve large data sets and can't be easily dismissed.
One of the biggest ones done in the UK did find that lower half PL teams did perform significantly better post a managerial change.
In Tottenham's case IF one believes (as I do) that Ange is in part responsible for our injury load, and that missing players is negatively impacting our results, then there is good reason to believe we may well have a pretty decent, sustained bounce. No gurantees of course (other than that Ange will continue to injure and fail us).
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Step by step. Right now we are in a terrible run of form and can't beat anyone! 15% is right.I'd prefer to go with the BF exchange, in lieu of any other recent info, and say that our current chance is something like 15%. Personally I doubt that would change very significantly if VdV and Romero were totally cleared of any current injuries - maybe it would go to 18-20%, but it's all just speculation, we're all just giving our opinions on that bit, no one is 'right' or 'wrong'.
Where presumably all 3 of us do agree is in hoping that we can get them both fit very soon and have them playing week in week out permanently without all these problems.
But if we qualify for the quarter finals and have Romero and VDV back starting regularly by then, it'll quickly become a 30% chance. Just need to get through the next round and get all our players back! BIG IFS
I just hope if there is chance surgery is required, we don’t put it off and then he misses a chunk of next season.
