Yep, I'm not disagreeing with any of that (well, except excluding 'mythical' games because they don't suit an agenda, but that's a completely different conversation) - but your original post began "Nah There is solid evidence that bottom half PL teams have a bounce", as though the statisical theory post that you were responding to was just rubbish - it isn't. If that's not what you meant, and it was actually just a poorly expressed attempt to say "fine
(as opposed to 'nah'), but also some new managers do make a big difference" then fine - my point was that both can be relevant, i.e the impact of a new manager, and the reversion to the mean, I wouldn't 'nah' either of them, and neither should anyone else.