The Race for 4th

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Mrs Perryman

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I'm a Cockney Malteser 👑
The large number of Spurs fans who asked for this thread to be deleted need to go and have a good long hard look in the mirror and ask themselves why they believed in Arteta over Conte.

I’m judging you all…….

ryan-gosling-judging-you.gif
Consider me judged!

Disney GIF
 
Interesting article in the DT today, good one for the statto crowd



Who will win race to finish in top four?


Thom Gibbs
analyses five key factors that will decide the outcome of this year’s scramble to qualify for the Champions League


Difficulty of remaining games in their run-ins​


Image-0-0-809677.jpg


The traditional way to calculate this has been to take an average league position of opponents. This is crude, because playing Liverpool is significantly more difficult than Wolves. Under the normal method, the gap of six places between Wolves and Brentford is assumed to be identical to the six between Liverpool and Wolves, which it clearly is not.
For a truer reflection, we look at the average points on the board for each remaining opponent – a figure adjusted with a 15 per cent weighting depending on if the contenders are home or away. West Ham having played at least one more match than their rivals is factored in.


Vibe​


Momentum, fan mood, general sense of purpose. The hardest thing to quantify but arguably the most important. Spurs’ impressive 5-1 win against Newcastle puts them ahead, especially after chastening defeats for Woolwich and Chelsea. It is not just the Newcastle game, Harry Kane is playing beautifully and Antonio Conte is extracting the best from his team.
Manchester United are a shambles one week and a steady outfit the next. Unpredictability is their only reliable trait. West Ham beat Everton but did not look at their best. There is a sense their domestic season has peaked and Woolwich also look to be running out of verve.
Chelsea’s surprising 4-1 home defeat by Brentford could be the start of off-field crises making their way onto the pitch. It seems as likely that Thomas Tuchel’s team will rally and find some of their old siege mentality.

Distractions​

Chelsea are still in this season’s Champions League as well as the FA Cup. Their squad is used to fighting on multiple fronts but not uncertain ownership and a lack of clarity over contracts.
The focus of West Ham’s season is increasingly an exciting Europa League campaign.
Spurs, Woolwich and United should be able to focus solely on the league. United’s supply teacher-manager and the unknown identity of his replacement puts them a level below the north London clubs. They split top points.


Squad depth and experience​


Certain to be tested in the closing weeks of the season, not just for capable bodies available but the experience of those players. Injuries will also be a factor.
Looking at the team’s most recent starting XIs and benches, Chelsea have an embarrassment of riches, United have a team of on-paper superstars but on-pitch disappointments. Spurs’ XI has European pedigree with three useful subs. Odd but probably correct to feel West Ham’s strength in depth beats Woolwich’s.
No question that younger is better in the long run and Woolwich look well set for the future in a way that United, to put it mildly do not. There is a balance to strike at this point in the season and you would back the teams closest to the fabled peak of 27 years old to be best placed.
Each team currently has three to five first-teamers unavailable. Woolwich have the biggest issues, West Ham the lightest load with only Angelo Ogbonna out as a long-term absentee.

Underlying stats


Image-0-0-809679.jpg


The expected goals metric is at its best when attempting to discern a team’s true ability away from the vagaries of form, luck and Harry Maguire. In the past four seasons, 13 out of the 16 top four league positions have been occupied by those also finishing in the top four for expected goals scored.


A fairly large spread appears, and worth noting that Southampton (40.9) and Leeds (40.5) are not too far behind West Ham, showing the level of their over-achievement this season. They have vastly outscored their xG with 51 actual goals, thanks partly to lots of lovely corners.
Of course, it is not just scoring goals which matters, hence the addition of teams’ expected goals against. This measures the quality of chances that teams are conceding. The lower the score the better.
United are in the bottom half of the overall table by this measure, below Burnley, Brentford and Everton. Sub-optimal. Chelsea, meanwhile, are second behind Manchester City, ahead of even Liverpool.


As any hip young statslinger will tell you, xG is SO 2017-18. Passes per defensive action measures how effectively a team presses. The lower the score the better, because the fewer passes an opponent can put together before meeting a defender the more likely it is the team out of possession will win it back.
It is fair to assume that teams at the top of the table will want to be controlling more matches than not, so we also considered possession.
A clear pattern emerged. Chelsea top three of our four metrics Spurs top the other and are second in two more. West Ham are bottom in all bar one and United and Woolwich are tough to separate. We will give United the slight edge, as attacking xG tends to be a more reliable indicator of a team’s final league position than xG against.


In conclusion​


There are no easy games in the Premier League. Apart from Norwich.
None of these teams are guaranteed to swat aside any of their remaining opponents. And yet the games between the competitors should be decisive. Spurs v Woolwich, Chelsea v Woolwich, Woolwich v United and United v Chelsea are the matches which will decide next season’s Champions League places.
There is no real need for them though, because below is our mathematically unarguable final score, and the identity of the two final Champions League qualifiers.


Image-0-0-809680.jpg

Heads Or Tails Flip GIF by Hollyoaks


Here you go. This is far more accurate.
 
The large number of Spurs fans who asked for this thread to be deleted need to go and have a good long hard look in the mirror and ask themselves why they believed in Arteta over Conte.

I’m judging you all…….

ryan-gosling-judging-you.gif

Oh bless, you think we thought Arteta was a better coach than Conte?


No.
It was that we had 2 shit RWBs, Romero and Dier out with Sanchez playing, Winks playing in CMF, GLC, TND and Dele stinking the dressing room and training ground up and Kane still dragging his feet.

Gradually all those ills have been remedied in various orders and as that has happened, lo and behold, our form and performances have improved.

Everyone knows Conte is a better coach than Arteta. But there's only so much he can do with what was, at the time, a poor squad that even the good players weren't performing for.
 
Oh bless, you think we thought Arteta was a better coach than Conte?


No.
It was that we had 2 shit RWBs, Romero and Dier out with Sanchez playing, Winks playing in CMF, GLC, TND and Dele stinking the dressing room and training ground up and Kane still dragging his feet.

Gradually all those ills have been remedied in various orders and as that has happened, lo and behold, our form and performances have improved.

Everyone knows Conte is a better coach than Arteta. But there's only so much he can do with what was, at the time, a poor squad that even the good players weren't performing for.

The two January signings and our settled back 3 have made a huge difference. Given a platform for us to get the benefit of Kane and Son's quality. I gave up on 4th place, but we seem to have really found a bit of form at just the right moment.

Dear God, what are we setting ourselves up for v Villa away?
:contehandshead:
:llorisunsure::lucasl:
 
The two January signings and our settled back 3 have made a huge difference. Given a platform for us to get the benefit of Kane and Son's quality. I gave up on 4th place, but we seem to have really found a bit of form at just the right moment.

Dear God, what are we setting ourselves up for v Villa away?
:contehandshead:
:llorisunsure::lucasl:
We've won 3 in a row and everyone is pissing themselves.
Our PL record winning streak is 9 games at our absolute best in modern history.

If Conte even matched that, given out squad deficiencies, he could argue he's the best in the world.
 
Fair enough, they have a game in hand and that's what they'll be basing their slight advantage.

I bet they DON'T take into account:

1. Tierney out for the season and Tavares/Xhaka at LB - that's their defence FUCKED
2. Partey out for weeks - that's their midfield FUCKED

I don't have access to the stats, but I saw them flash up briefly before the Palace game. Basically, a MF of Partey and Xhaka have a MUCH better win %age than without.

OK, there might be a reaction v Brighton, they are flat track bullies after all. But then it's

Saints away
Chavs away
MUFC home
Spam away

Between now and May 1st we've got

Villa a
Brighton h
Brentford a
Leicester h

We SHOULD put cleat water between us and the Goons then.
I'd be surprised if they get a single win from those 4. Maybe West Ham if they are distracted by EL.

We have to be looking at 10 points from our 4.
 
We've won 3 in a row and everyone is pissing themselves.
Our PL record winning streak is 9 games at our absolute best in modern history.

If Conte even matched that, given out squad deficiencies, he could argue he's the best in the world.
Conte is the best in the world, especially at preparing a team on a weekly basis. We're still Spurs though so we'll fuck up somewhere.
 
Interesting article in the DT today, good one for the statto crowd



Who will win race to finish in top four?


Thom Gibbs
analyses five key factors that will decide the outcome of this year’s scramble to qualify for the Champions League


Difficulty of remaining games in their run-ins​


Image-0-0-809677.jpg


The traditional way to calculate this has been to take an average league position of opponents. This is crude, because playing Liverpool is significantly more difficult than Wolves. Under the normal method, the gap of six places between Wolves and Brentford is assumed to be identical to the six between Liverpool and Wolves, which it clearly is not.
For a truer reflection, we look at the average points on the board for each remaining opponent – a figure adjusted with a 15 per cent weighting depending on if the contenders are home or away. West Ham having played at least one more match than their rivals is factored in.


Vibe​


Momentum, fan mood, general sense of purpose. The hardest thing to quantify but arguably the most important. Spurs’ impressive 5-1 win against Newcastle puts them ahead, especially after chastening defeats for Woolwich and Chelsea. It is not just the Newcastle game, Harry Kane is playing beautifully and Antonio Conte is extracting the best from his team.
Manchester United are a shambles one week and a steady outfit the next. Unpredictability is their only reliable trait. West Ham beat Everton but did not look at their best. There is a sense their domestic season has peaked and Woolwich also look to be running out of verve.
Chelsea’s surprising 4-1 home defeat by Brentford could be the start of off-field crises making their way onto the pitch. It seems as likely that Thomas Tuchel’s team will rally and find some of their old siege mentality.

Distractions​

Chelsea are still in this season’s Champions League as well as the FA Cup. Their squad is used to fighting on multiple fronts but not uncertain ownership and a lack of clarity over contracts.
The focus of West Ham’s season is increasingly an exciting Europa League campaign.
Spurs, Woolwich and United should be able to focus solely on the league. United’s supply teacher-manager and the unknown identity of his replacement puts them a level below the north London clubs. They split top points.


Squad depth and experience​


Certain to be tested in the closing weeks of the season, not just for capable bodies available but the experience of those players. Injuries will also be a factor.
Looking at the team’s most recent starting XIs and benches, Chelsea have an embarrassment of riches, United have a team of on-paper superstars but on-pitch disappointments. Spurs’ XI has European pedigree with three useful subs. Odd but probably correct to feel West Ham’s strength in depth beats Woolwich’s.
No question that younger is better in the long run and Woolwich look well set for the future in a way that United, to put it mildly do not. There is a balance to strike at this point in the season and you would back the teams closest to the fabled peak of 27 years old to be best placed.
Each team currently has three to five first-teamers unavailable. Woolwich have the biggest issues, West Ham the lightest load with only Angelo Ogbonna out as a long-term absentee.

Underlying stats


Image-0-0-809679.jpg


The expected goals metric is at its best when attempting to discern a team’s true ability away from the vagaries of form, luck and Harry Maguire. In the past four seasons, 13 out of the 16 top four league positions have been occupied by those also finishing in the top four for expected goals scored.


A fairly large spread appears, and worth noting that Southampton (40.9) and Leeds (40.5) are not too far behind West Ham, showing the level of their over-achievement this season. They have vastly outscored their xG with 51 actual goals, thanks partly to lots of lovely corners.
Of course, it is not just scoring goals which matters, hence the addition of teams’ expected goals against. This measures the quality of chances that teams are conceding. The lower the score the better.
United are in the bottom half of the overall table by this measure, below Burnley, Brentford and Everton. Sub-optimal. Chelsea, meanwhile, are second behind Manchester City, ahead of even Liverpool.


As any hip young statslinger will tell you, xG is SO 2017-18. Passes per defensive action measures how effectively a team presses. The lower the score the better, because the fewer passes an opponent can put together before meeting a defender the more likely it is the team out of possession will win it back.
It is fair to assume that teams at the top of the table will want to be controlling more matches than not, so we also considered possession.
A clear pattern emerged. Chelsea top three of our four metrics Spurs top the other and are second in two more. West Ham are bottom in all bar one and United and Woolwich are tough to separate. We will give United the slight edge, as attacking xG tends to be a more reliable indicator of a team’s final league position than xG against.


In conclusion​


There are no easy games in the Premier League. Apart from Norwich.
None of these teams are guaranteed to swat aside any of their remaining opponents. And yet the games between the competitors should be decisive. Spurs v Woolwich, Chelsea v Woolwich, Woolwich v United and United v Chelsea are the matches which will decide next season’s Champions League places.
There is no real need for them though, because below is our mathematically unarguable final score, and the identity of the two final Champions League qualifiers.


Image-0-0-809680.jpg
Quite insightful until you get to the ‘vibe’ section 😂
 
Just a warning but I think we’re calling this a two horse race prematurely.
Although they have a tougher run-in, if United get a result at Woolwich, they’ll be right back in the mix.
Matches against Chelsea could easily be the deciding factor for both these teams.
 

Shadydan

ENIC hokey cokey
Just a warning but I think we’re calling this a two horse race prematurely.
Although they have a tougher run-in, if United get a result at Woolwich, they’ll be right back in the mix.
Matches against Chelsea could easily be the deciding factor for both these teams.

Hard to imagine them doing much, they were dogs against Leicester, don't think the players even care about to 4 especially when half of them are gonna leave in the Summer anyway.
 
It would be nice to drag chelsea into it but I think the better deal for us is them remaining just ahead of us and staying honest for the goons game
Imagine finishing third after enduring that two months shitshow from that dour, simpleton - MAKE YOU PROUDDDD. Would be a truly incredible turnaround

:nunothumb:
 
Hard to imagine them doing much, they were dogs against Leicester, don't think the players even care about to 4 especially when half of them are gonna leave in the Summer anyway.
Agree - lazy wastemen under an under qualified, boring dullard of a manager

Imagine him telling Ronaldo and Pogba to press high 😂
 
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