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Competition The Race for 4th

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It is all true...

BUT

As you said - fact that it is us vs Woolwich makes it frustrating and puts more pressure on us.
Also considering Kane wanted to leave and I still believe PSG will come to lure Conte in the summer - I would feel so much better if we had a CL card to play. I feel it would make it harder for Kane and/or Conte to walk away then.
Why would PSG genuinely want a manager with zero ECL pedigree their only ambition is that. It makes zero sense because the press made up a story ti reignited the Poch returns home narrative. Conte to PSG makes no sense at all.
 
11/4 Spurs to finish top 4 looks mispriced. Win NLD and we'll have the belief to finish it off / they won't.

This is just theory. The truth is Woolwich slipped up on other occasions and recovered to go on good runs, and the likelihood is even if we beat them in the NLD they will have enough to get past a nothing to play for Newcastle and Everton.

That's the situation we're in and the odds reflect that. Woolwich won't lose a NLD away and suddenly lose all hope they can beat Newcastle & Everton.
 
We now have the same points total (62) as last season with 3 games to play.

If we can end the season with 71 pts I'm going to be happy with our progress regardless of being 4th or 5th.

Only twice from the last 7 seasons has 71 points not been enough. Although people like to falsely say how bad the competition for top 4 is this season, it's actually one of the tougher ones.

We have had 5 appearances in the Champions League. 3 of them were achieved with points totals under 72.

But lets do the business on Thursday and send them away shaking in their boots.
7th last term was our worst finish in 12 seasons.


PtsPos
2021-2262x
2020-21627
2019-20596
2018-19714
2017-18773
2016-17862
2015-16703
2014-15645
2013-14696
2012-13725
2011-12694
2010-11625
2009-10704
2008-09518
2007-084611
2006-07605
2005-06655
2004-05529
2003-044514
2002-035010
2001-02509
2000-014912
 
7th last term was our worst finish in 12 seasons.


PtsPos
2021-2262x
2020-21627
2019-20596
2018-19714
2017-18773
2016-17862
2015-16703
2014-15645
2013-14696
2012-13725
2011-12694
2010-11625
2009-10704
2008-09518
2007-084611
2006-07605
2005-06655
2004-05529
2003-044514
2002-035010
2001-02509
2000-014912

When you say 'best' or 'worst' though..
What's better for you?

7th with 62 points or
6th with 59 points?

On an individual basis of course finishing 6th is better than 7th, but overall progress and projections I prefer to look at point totals.
 
thats true, but we can do it against city and win because we have quality up front on the counter, the weaker sides dont. we just need to adapt for the weaker sides and impose ourselves more. weve been playing extra CDM's in them games in the past when we needed more flair out there and creativity. weve lacked fullbacks who can really cross a ball for ages too, liverpool bombard the weaker sides with quality crosses from both robertson and trent..we got emerson in them areas....
We'd need a serious squad overhaul to go out and simply dominate teams who park the bus.
We can dominate games like Leicester and Everton because they're dumb enough to have a go. Even Villa and Newcastle.
But when a team works hard to stop us from playing, even the likes of Brighton who did from the front rather than the back, we fall apart.

The reason City and Liverpool dominate so many games is that every last player can defend, tackle, pass, create. We have too many donkies unfortunately. Some are good at some things but utterly hopeless at others.
 
We'd need a serious squad overhaul to go out and simply dominate teams who park the bus.
We can dominate games like Leicester and Everton because they're dumb enough to have a go. Even Villa and Newcastle.
But when a team works hard to stop us from playing, even the likes of Brighton who did from the front rather than the back, we fall apart.

The reason City and Liverpool dominate so many games is that every last player can defend, tackle, pass, create. We have too many donkies unfortunately. Some are good at some things but utterly hopeless at others.
100%. they even have defenders who are technically sound and sharp witted, which means when they do pass forward its passed with quality, correct weight and accuracy etc and its timed right. to be fair even if we did have dier at the back, if you got two full backs who can whip a ball into a dangerous area with pace then we'd still have half a chance.

gio and ndombele was brought to help unlock them teams but they failed miserably.
 
11/4 Spurs to finish top 4 looks mispriced. Win NLD and we'll have the belief to finish it off / they won't.
That seems accurate to me. We are probably somewhere around 55% to win on Thursday. Woolwich dropping points in one of the last 2 might be around 50%. Let’s say us winning the last 2 is 75%. We need all that to happen.

So basically .55 x .50 x .75 which is 20.6%. There’s a small probability ( I didn’t feel like complicating the calculation with) which is Woolwich lose one of their games and we draw one of ours. Puts us even and ahead on GD.

11/4 odds is 26% so it seems pretty accurate.
 
I highly doubt Chelsea slip enough for the Watford game to matter but I am of the opinion they will have plenty to play for as relegation has already been confirmed.

For the majority of the squad, they either won't be playing PL football next year or they will be desparately auditioning to find a club that will be in the PL. Both are great motivators knowing that 1. you need to savour the moment which may not happen again for some of these players or 2. You need to show your skills to seal a deal to another PL club during the summer.
 
We'd need a serious squad overhaul to go out and simply dominate teams who park the bus.
We can dominate games like Leicester and Everton because they're dumb enough to have a go. Even Villa and Newcastle.
But when a team works hard to stop us from playing, even the likes of Brighton who did from the front rather than the back, we fall apart.

The reason City and Liverpool dominate so many games is that every last player can defend, tackle, pass, create. We have too many donkies unfortunately. Some are good at some things but utterly hopeless at others.

Actually, I don't think we are that far away at all. If we simply get a RWB capable of crossing and making chances, our team will look immensely better. Add Bastoni and recall the late surging Sarr (2 assists in last 3?) and our squad suddenly looks a lot more well balanced. Lack of quality in the wingback positions has absolutely killed us this year. If we simply address that, we'd greatly improve immediately. It would take a ton of pressure off the CM positions to create chances.
 
Newcastle's players are playing for there future at the club with all the money that comes with the new owners they wont want to leave, There at home and there fans wont stand for a non performance
I think most of them know whatever they do, they aren't going to stay too long. They might be playing for one more season at most but watching them recently they look as bad as they did 6 months ago
 
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