We enter the international break in a fairly strong position sat in 6th position, just three points off the lead. However, there has been one glaring weakness over the opening seven games of the season: goal scoring. With just six goals scored so far we trail the current top scorers (Manchester City) by 11 goals, […]
A Statistical Approach to Remaining Patient
We enter the international break in a fairly strong position sat in 6th position, just three points off the lead. However, there has been one glaring weakness over the opening seven games of the season: goal scoring. With just six goals scored so far we trail the current top scorers (Manchester City) by 11 goals, and trail our own total over the same period from the last two seasons by seven.
What is the cause of this? Is it a team problem or that of specific individuals?
Hopefully an analysis of the stats will give us a clearer view.
When we look at the team stats the lack of goal scoring seems odd. With 131 shots we lead the league in attempts, and our total of 39 shots on target is bettered only by Woolwich, Manchester City, Swansea and Liverpool. A total of 104 chances created is by far a league high, with Chelsea second in that stat at 88.
We also dominate the final third of the pitch more than any other team, with 68.4% of our possession coming in that region and a pass completion whilst we’re there of 83.9%. These are both league highs. So why have we converted just 4 (excluding the two penalties) of the 104 chances created?
One reason is the woodwork, having hit it a joint league high of 4 times so far. But the most worrying stat is the shot to goal conversion rate. Ours is the worst in the league at just 4.6%, and to explain this we must look at individual players.
Excluding the West Ham game on Sunday, Roberto Soldado has had the job of leading the Tottenham attack. But can the stats explain why he is yet to score from open play this season?
With a total of 15 shots (all coming from inside the box) he trails Olivier Giroud, Robin Van Persie and Daniel Sturridge who are all in the 20’s, but it is still not a glaring issue. Of those 15. 5 have been on target, with 4 of these being considered ‘big chances’.
With the 2 penalties scored that leaves 2 ‘big chances’ missed, less than Kun Aguero and level with Van Persie. Judging by these stats it seems slightly harsh to point the finger of blame at Soldado, though with such a large transfer price hanging over him there is no doubt we’ve expected slightly more in terms of goal returns.
A brief look at the midfielders provides no glaring issues. Andros Townsend and Paulinho have had more shots than any other midfielders in the Premier League (26 and 25 respectively), though just 3 of Townsend’s have come from inside the box. Townsend has been guilty of being a little too one-dimensional at times; this stat proves that he has a tendency to shoot unnecessarily, especially considering he is yet to score a Premier League goal this season.
The addition of Christian Eriksen has undoubtedly helped matters; he has created a chance every 33.8 minutes. This stat is worse than Mesut Ozil (21.4) and David Silva (24.1), but better than Eden Hazard (39.4) and Coutinho (52.8).
So why has the Tottenham opposition net been bulging far too infrequently this season. The stats show no clear issues (except for chance conversion), which suggests that the issue is something the stats can’t show.
It may be a cliché but with so many new players, we must be patient and wait for them to gel. It is no surprise that the two top scoring teams so far this season are ones that are relatively settled. Manchester City made a few additions but the core of Aguero, Edin Dzeko, Silva and Yaya Toure remained, and Giroud of Woolwich is scoring goals after a tricky first season.
This is the kind of patience we must show our new team. Soldado, Eric Lamela, Eriksen and Paulinho are all proven on the world stage, it is only a matter of time before they start delivering the goods at White Hart Lane.
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3 Comments
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09/10/2013 @ 5:05 pm
Pro Stats, Opta Stats, Passing Stats, Shooting Stats, Stats for Stats sake and then some more stats. Please stop this nonsense, you sound like a manager that has just lost and is looking for an excuse. Just WATCH THE GAME and you will learn a lot more, I promise you. The reason we are not scoring is because AVB picks the wrong players in the wrong positions, makes poor decisions during play and plays sideways/backwards football at a slow tempo. Most goals come from the ball being cut back from wide positions but our “wingers” are forced to come inside and on the very rare occasions they do get down the line they have to cross off their weaker foot. Football is not a complicated game and we now have a team of high quality players but, sadly, we don’t have a manager that knows how to get the best out of them.
10/10/2013 @ 5:06 am
There will be no goals so long as Adebayor’s not playing.
16/10/2013 @ 7:27 pm
The team is still unfamiliar with each other and does not yet have the ability to anticipate or read the play of others. They play slower than optimal because they don’t have the relationships built up to enable anything faster. Also, your statistical analysis is poor as you only look at raw shots and conversion rates. Shooting location is a major factor in conversion, and we still shoot from sub-optimal positions far too often. Townsend is the worst offender by far, but others are guilty as well. The guys at Statsbomb have some interesting insight on that.
What we need is time for the forward line to work together, figure out how to play and then relentlessly drill them on box penetration. Siggurdson seems to be improving and looks like he could be a very useful threat, but he may be less effective on the wing. Should he be converted to a striker? Lamela needs more time, but he will provide a big improvement on the current level of Townsend (unless somehow someone gets through to him that he is not Gareth Bale and hasn’t got a hope in hell of making those shots). I do question the value of having a striker in general. Given the way the modern game is played, considerably more flexibility is needed than found in a traditional poacher. We may be stronger without a focal point, but a better focus on linking up and box penetration.