The tale of two left backs: Rose v Davies

Left back, unlike most other positions in the Tottenham squad, is one of relative strength. Ben Davies, who came to White Hart Lane as part of a swap deal also involving Michel Vorm and Gylfi Sigurdsson, arrived in the summer transfer window of 2014 to provide competition to Spurs’ incumbent left back, Danny Rose.

It was thought by many that Davies was brought in as an eventual replacement for Rose, presumably because his reputation for consistency and defensive solidity stood in stark contrast to the occasionally erratic performances of Rose in the 2013-14 season. It came as some surprise then, when shortly thereafter Rose was offered a new five-year contract. Indeed, surprise is clearly an understatement: shock and outrage would be a much more accurate description.

However, Rose clearly enjoys the confidence of Mauricio Pochettino, and his performances this season have been good enough to generate murmurings of a transfer to Manchester City.

The question becomes then, with a Premier League-quality left back already on the books, should Spurs cash in on Rose if a suitable offer emerges? Much of this depends on working out what Rose brings to the team, and whether Davies can truly be judged a realistic replacement. This post sets out to shed light on this conundrum.

[linequote]Di Canio’s assessment of Rose is one that many Spurs fans would share: namely, that the former winger offers a great deal going forward[/linequote]

Danny Rose joined Tottenham as a left wing youth prospect from Leeds in 2007. He enjoyed a legendary debut for Spurs as a substitute in the North London Derby in 2010, scoring a wonderful 35 yard volley off a Manuel Almunia punched clearance.

Perhaps a more pivotal moment in his career, however, came in a 1-1 draw with Blackpool in 2011. With Benoit Assou-Ekotto and Gareth Bale injured, Danny Rose started as a left back at Tottenham for the first time. Until that point Rose had considered himself a winger, but his display against The Seasiders convinced Harry Redknapp that his future lay elsewhere:

“Danny did well at left-back and I had no doubts that he would do well… That’s his position. That’s where he’ll play.”

Rose went on to get regular game time at the Premier League level with a loan to Sunderland in the 2012-13 season. He made 27 appearances for Sunderland, notched a goal and an assist, and did well enough to be named their Young Player of the Year. Paulo Di Canio, Rose’s manager at Sunderland for the last few months of his loan spell, offered some insightful comments into what he made of Rose’s overall game:

“In my opinion, he can improve a lot defensively. He’s an attacking-minded left-back, but he has to improve a lot defensively. He’s got a great future in front of him. He’s a powerful guy. The strength and elasticity he’s got mean he can run forward with the ball and beat people easily. It’s obvious he can play at the top level, but everybody has to improve.

‘People have to realise there are two phases in the game – possession ball and non-possession ball. It’s crucial to be good in both situations. I don’t want to say he’s not very good when we’re not in possession of the ball, but he can improve a lot. He can improve the timing of his tackling and he needs to learn when and how to be aggressive. But everybody can improve, and he’s only 22.”

Di Canio’s assessment of Rose is one that many Spurs fans would share: namely, that the former winger offers a great deal going forward, but that his defensive game leaves much to be desired.

Ben Davies, by contrast, is regarded as far more of a natural defender than Rose. With the exception of a brief spell at the Danish team Viborg, Davies came up through the ranks of the Swansea youth system. A broken ankle for first choice Swans left back Neil Taylor meant that Davies enjoyed a breakthrough season in 2012-13, and he went on to make 71 appearances for The Swans and score 3 goals.

[linequote]While Shaw delivered 142 crosses in 35 matches in the 2013-14 season, Davies managed just 75 from 34 matches[/linequote]

Shortly after his move to Spurs, Stuart James, writing for The Guardian, gave an analysis of his style of play. James repeatedly emphasised the point that Davies offers far more as a defender than as an attacker. He suggested that Davies “is a defender first and foremost – not a full-back waiting to be converted into a left-winger”, and he also contrasted his style of play with that of the far more offensively-minded Luke Shaw, who had just moved from Southampton to Manchester United. One statistic noted by James immediately jumps out: while Shaw delivered 142 crosses in 35 matches in the 2013-14 season, Davies managed just 75 from 34 matches. Davies then, is clearly a player who has a reputation for prioritising the defensive side of his game.

To what extent, though, is the generalisation that Rose is attack-minded and Davies predominantly defensive accurate? I will consider this question from the perspective of the data available on both players.

At first glance, there is not as great a difference between the positioning of Rose and Davies as might be expected. I have included four heat maps below showing the positioning of Rose in the 3-1 victory at Newcastle and the 4-3 win against Leicester, and that of Davies in the 2-2 draw at Southampton and the 2-1 win at QPR.

The sample under discussion is admittedly too small to draw any significant conclusions, but it can be seen that both Rose and Davies played fairly defensively against Leicester and Southampton respectively, and had greater freedom to attack in their games against Newcastle and QPR. Indeed, if any real difference in their play can be deduced from the heat maps, it is perhaps Rose’s slightly greater tendency to make forays into the opposition box. While this might only amount to a couple of times per match, it is nevertheless obvious that this is the area in which the most vital offensive contributions are made.

The statistics bear out the initial impression that Rose offers more going forward. In fact, for every key offensive statistic Rose completely outperforms Davies, as can be seen in the table below. Of course there are a couple of mitigating circumstances for Rose’s statistical dominance. First, this data only takes into account the Premier League, and in that competition Rose has clocked up around 2,190 minutes compared to Davies’ 898 (or, to put it another way, Rose has played almost 2.5 times more minutes than Davies). Second, this lack of game time on the part of Davies has surely prevented him reaching the kind of form that only a prolonged run in the team can bring. Bearing this in mind, however, it is nevertheless clear that Rose offers a significantly greater offensive threat than Davies.

It might be easy to focus on some of the more obvious statistics such as goals and assists. However, to my mind the most significant is the fact that Rose has managed 11 shots from inside the area. Indeed, only the three Tottenham strikers, Nacer Chadli and Christian Eriksen have taken more shots from inside the box this season, and this statistic would seem to corroborate my initial conclusion that Rose has a strong tendency to venture into extremely significant attacking positions.

As I mentioned before, however, Davies has had nowhere near as much involvement as Danny Rose this season, and thus it might be worth a brief look at his offensive statistics in his final Swansea season:

Here it can be seen that Davies can offer a lot more going forward than he has shown so far this season. In 2,874 minutes in the Premier League last season, Davies’ numbers begin to approach those of Rose in terms of goals, key passes and crosses. I would suggest that Rose remains statistically better, but it is nevertheless clear that Davies does possess decent attacking ability.

The statistic which really stands out for me again, is that last season Daviesdid manage to take a number of shots in the opposition box. However, after crunching the numbers we are left with Davies taking a shot inside the box every 718 minutes (i.e. roughly every 8 games) last season compared to Rose managing one every 199 minutes (i.e. roughly every 2.2 games) this season. There can be no doubt then, that while Ben Davies is capable of attacking play, the former winger Rose has a much greater tendency to get into dangerous opposition areas.

If the numbers suggest that Rose is the better attacking full back, then we might suspect that Davies would come out on top in terms of defensive play.

However, the numbers suggest that here too Rose enjoys the advantage. Bearing in mind the extenuating circumstances already discussed, Rose nevertheless completely dominates Davies in tackles per game, and also leads him in interceptions and blocks. Perhaps unsurprisingly given Rose’s reputation for the occasional bout of overly-aggressive and rash play, the statistics do seem to suggest that Davies is a more disciplined defender, earning fewer yellow cards and conceding fewer fouls. However, this is the only area of his defensive play where Davies has clearly been better than Rose this season.

Once again, a look at last season’s statistics would suggest that Davies does possess greater defensive ability than he has shown in this campaign. However, it could be plausibly argued that Davies’ top-form defensive ability is still not better than that of Rose.

Of course it might be suggested that Rose’s good form this year is a temporary aberration, and that the Danny Rose of 2013-14 is lurking just below the surface. However, even if that is the case (and, considering Pochettino’s results in improving the play of several players this season, I’m not sure it is), that would not necessarily be a terrible thing.

While Rose’s 2013-14 might be best remembered for a mistake in the North London Derby which gifted Rosicky a goal, his overall defensive and attacking contribution was good.

Apart from the considerable improvement made this year in all areas, what really leaps out from Rose’s defensive statistics from last season, is that he still leads Davies in tackles, interceptions and blocks. Although given to lapses of concentration and moments of madness – as his three defensive errors (with one leading to a goal) and one red card highlight – Rose had decent overall defensive play. In fact, Hugo Lloris made four defensive errors (with three leading to a goal) and Vertonghen made three (with all of them leading to a goal), yet they escaped virtually unscathed from the opprobrium which was directed at Rose.

[linequote]I would once again return to the crucial stat that Rose has managed 11 shots inside the box (compared to Walker and Davies’ 0),to suggest that he offers a vital – and almost unique – attacking threat[/linequote]

Rose has clearly had the edge over Walker in all attacking departments this season, and I would once again return to the crucial stat that Rose has managed 11 shots inside the box (compared to Walker and Davies’ 0),to suggest that he offers a vital – and almost unique – attacking threat. If we couple this with his strong defensive improvement this season – and his decent defensive contribution last season – then a picture begins to emerge of Rose occupying a virtually indispensable role within the team.

If an offer comes for Rose in the summer – and I’m not entirely convinced it will – it should be firmly rejected. Much as Davies is a good squad player, he definitely does not possess the attacking skills of Rose, and, perhaps most surprisingly, probably offers less in defence as well. Rose is a key player in Pochettino’s system and we should consider ourselves lucky to have him.