Tottenham Strength of Schedule

As we enter the business end of the season Tottenham are nine points clear of Arsenal and fans are once again beginning to dream of finally finishing as the campaign as the top dog in north London. It has not happened in 21 years and there have been a number of near misses, but something feels different this time. Arsenal are in disarray, and even without Harry Kane it surely has to be Tottenham’s time to earn bragging rights.

Arsenal have lost their last two games in a row to slip out of the top four, while Spurs are second with just 10 games remaining. But the fat lady has by no means sung: Arsenal have a game in hand and there is still the small matter of a six-pointer north London derby at White Hart Lane on April 30. Now is often the time of season that Arsenal start winning, when the pressure is off as it is becoming mathematically impossible for them to actually win the league, so Spurs will need to remain focused, stay tight at the back and find a way to score in the absence of injured star Kane.

They cannot afford to crumble like they did last season, when they finished third behind Arsenal after looking like the only team that could topple Leicester for so much of the run-in. They cannot have another incident like the lasagne one of a few years ago. If they do not finish above a woefully out of sorts Arsenal team this season it will be a bitter pill to swallow, and a psychological blow that could hamper the development of an exceptionally talented young side.

The bookmakers think Spurs can do it easily. A review of the odds at Bet365 shows that (apart from champions-elect Chelsea) Tottenham have the shortest odds of finishing in the top four.

Mauricio Pocchetino’s men are 1/8 to do it, while Man City are 1/7, Liverpool are 4/9, Man Utd are 13/8 and then Arsenal are all the way out at 3/1. That is emphatic. But still Tottenham need to accrue plenty of points in their remaining 10 games, and their schedule is fraught with danger.

First up is Burnley at Turf Moor. Divide the table into home and away games and Burnley would be sixth at home, with 29 points. Spurs are not great on the road, where they have only taken 18 points and are sixth in the away table. That will be a tough game – Burnley have only lost three at home all season – and a point might be a good result. After that there is an away trip to Swansea, who have clawed their way out of the relegation zone since Paul Clement took over by markedly improving their form. Still they leak goals and Spurs really should win that.

Where Tottenham really come into their own is at White Hart Lane: in the home table they are top and unbeaten all season. It is a remarkable achievement to be in that position in May, and the visits of Watford and Bournemouth should result in six points. If they can win their home games, Arsenal on April 30 included, and pick up a few points here and there on the road, Spurs should finish second, well clear of Arsenal. That would represent serious progress under Pocchetino, and give the players confidence going into next season, making them believe they can finally win the league. Their away games are not too tricky, as they face West Ham, Hull and Crystal Palace, while they have a huge game against Man Utd at home. But even without Kane they should be confident thanks to their superb defence, and the form of Son Heung-Min up front is a huge boost. It is within Tottenham’s grasp, they just need to be mentally strong now.