Going back to the top 4 itself, it's a very interesting picture, after City.
Here's the top 6's points, Goals For, Goals Against, xG for and xG against, using understat.com's numbers:
City 65, 70, 18, 61.51, 16.80
MUFC 53, 49, 16, 48.60, 28.93
Chelsea 50, 45, 16, 38.25, 19.45
Liverpool 47, 54, 29, 50.71, 24.08
Spurs 45, 47, 22, 45.50, 19.86
Woolwich 42, 45, 31, 46.85, 27.99
While Chelsea and Man Utd have an edge in points on the board, they do no actually perform like teams which normally would be getting those kinds of results. Chelsea's attack has steadily declined to the point where they are panicking and trying to sign Peter Crouch. Man Utd on the other hand have somehow had 12 less goals scored on them that one would expect given how many shots they give up, and where they give them up. Said another way, David De Gea is having the best GK season in memory, and baring this really being a season for the gods, when things cool off then Jose is going to be having some awkward press conferences about results.
So, it's a contest between if Spurs and Liverpool's superior general play are able to catch up and pass MUFC and Chelsea's lucky results/hot keeper. If they do, we're in the top 4. If not, we're 5th. At this point, it's a crapshoot.