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Competition The Race for 4th

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We need to focus upon winning our own games, so 3 points against Wolves next weekend has to be top of the priority list.

But a Liverpool v ManU game next Sunday is interesting by itself. A draw giving each one point making ManU that much easier to catch and Liverpool 2 points further back from us sounds our optimum result ?
 
Spursidol said:
We need to focus upon winning our own games, so 3 points against Wolves next weekend has to be top of the priority list.

But a Liverpool v ManU game next Sunday is interesting by itself. A draw giving each one point making ManU that much easier to catch and Liverpool 2 points further back from us sounds our optimum result ?
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Man City v Barcodes too......

Dippers v Man U
Wolves v Spurs
Arse v Bmuff
 
So you are saying that threat number 1 and 2 (Toon and Pool, in whichever order you prefer) have tough fixtures in coming weekend while Spurs will play side in 15th place?

So... we have 0 chance to get 3 points then :D ....
 
Zomb said:
They are already in a spin. Won 1 in 7 PL games
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Holy shit, they have totally fallen off the cliff.

After yesterdays defeat, their games since 31.12.2022 has been -
12 games played
4 won
5 drawn
3 lost

In that same run they have scored just 9 goals
- 2 goals or more only twice (!)
- scoring 1x in 5 games
- and failing to score in 6 (!), so in half games they ended up empty handed.

And they have conceded also 9x

And that run includes two games against worst team in the league in Soton (!) aggregate scoreline of 3:1.
Excluding this double header the run would be -
10 games;
2 won,
5 drawn,
3 lost.
6 goals scored (0,6 pg)
8 goals conceded (0,8 pg)

I noticed that they haven't been getting results, but this is just complete trainwreck.
 
TheSpurEst said:
Holy shit, they have totally fallen off the cliff.

After yesterdays defeat, their games since 31.12.2022 has been -
12 games played
4 won
5 drawn
3 lost

In that same run they have scored just 9 goals
- 2 goals or more only twice (!)
- scoring 1x in 5 games
- and failing to score in 6 (!), so in half games they ended up empty handed.

And they have conceded also 9x

And that run includes two games against worst team in the league in Soton (!) aggregate scoreline of 3:1.
Excluding this double header the run would be -
10 games;
2 won,
5 drawn,
3 lost.
6 goals scored (0,6 pg)
8 goals conceded (0,8 pg)

I noticed that they haven't been getting results, but this is just complete trainwreck.
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Uh oh.. we are going to talk ourselves into 4th and forget that points aren't won on the forum.
 
Oh, damn, it happened again.
I clicked on the thread, read, wrote and then went to semi-scientific mode.

Anyway...
I discovered such a brilliant little site as Soccerstats.com . It presents all kind of different statistical information. Such as - how many clean sheets (CS) in ratio to total games played (GP)
* for Spurs it is 9 CS to 25 GP and CS/GP ratio of 36% and with that we are FOURTH in that table, however in terms of overall defensive record, we are 6th WORST team in the league (35 GA); so with 9 CS it means we have conceded whopping 35 goals in as little as 16 games - 2,2 GA per game*
and much much more ...

BUT!!
It also has section called run-in analyses which weigh past opposition performances and future opposition performances in home or away - for example Chelsea has on average racked up 1 ppg in away games in EPL this season, so this game counts as 1,0. Wolves have gathered 1,17 ppg in EPL home game, so they count as 1,17. And it takes average of games played so far vs games to be played.
Based on that metric, Spurs have so far played against 1,42 ppg (bigger number = tougher opposition) and is yet to play 1,24 ppg. That means on average our remaining run-in is 13% easier than games so far. With that we have 4th biggest advantage in run-in (only Palace, Leicester and Bournemouth can enjoy relatively easier remainders to the season).

And do you want to bet who is in worst position (meaning upcoming games being relatively tougher)? Yes. Newcastle. They have 22% more difficult games left. So far they have played fixtures with opposition PPG of 1,24 and are yet to play opposition with same metric of 1,53 - run-in includes ManCity, Woolwich, Brendford away (from Toon POV) for example; and Spurs, Brighton, ManU away (from Toon POV). That is roughly equal to most difficult remainder of the season (Notts has 1,54 ppg).

What considers next 4 games - our figure is lowest of all, meaning our next 4 games (Wolves A; Notts H; Soton and Everton A) should be easiest with our opposition gathering 0,89 points from respective venues so far.

That should give us massive over Toon.
 
What scenario would people choose:

A) We finish 4th, win the FA cup and get to the finals of CL again but Gooners win league.

B) We finish 5th, win nothing and Chelsea somehow finish above us to get 4th place but Gooners finsh second.
 
kingdawson said:
What scenario would people choose:

A) We finish 4th, win the FA cup and get to the finals of CL again but Gooners win league.

B) We finish 5th, win nothing and Chelsea somehow finish above us to get 4th place but Gooners finsh second.
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That is easiest possible question.

Option A.

99,9 % of our fans would take that. Scales are not really balanced.
And even if you leave ECL run out - just top 4 + trophy with Gooners winning league vs us in 5th+no trophies and Goons not winning.
 
kingdawson said:
What scenario would people choose:

A) We finish 4th, win the FA cup and get to the finals of CL again but Gooners win league.

B) We finish 5th, win nothing and Chelsea somehow finish above us to get 4th place but Gooners finsh second.
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A..... No question......... Even without a CL final and the stinger of the Chavs fishing above us too.


4th and FA Cup please. Fuck what these other cunts get up to.
 
Spursidol said:
We need to focus upon winning our own games, so 3 points against Wolves next weekend has to be top of the priority list.

But a Liverpool v ManU game next Sunday is interesting by itself. A draw giving each one point making ManU that much easier to catch and Liverpool 2 points further back from us sounds our optimum result ?
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I want Liverpool in the mud to be honest. Would be great to chase Utd down but Liverpool (on paper) could still find form and bank a run of consecutive wins
 
Shadydan said:
Sorry this is ridiculous, if anyone chooses B you're a gimp :D
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Step forward the "You're not a proper fan unless you want us lose to City" crew............

Distaste for scouse Distaste for scouse & daveyboy88 - Raise 'em up, yo! :pochhail:
 
kingdawson said:
What scenario would people choose:

A) We finish 4th, win the FA cup and get to the finals of CL again but Gooners win league.

B) We finish 5th, win nothing and Chelsea somehow finish above us to get 4th place but Gooners finsh second.
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Click to shrink...
GIF by Ghostbusters
 
kingdawson said:
What scenario would people choose:

A) We finish 4th, win the FA cup and get to the finals of CL again but Gooners win league.

B) We finish 5th, win nothing and Chelsea somehow finish above us to get 4th place but Gooners finsh second.
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We took zero points off that lot. If they win the league we did absolutely fuck all to stop them.

Que sera sera as the song goes.

And it’s about time we won a cup in a year ending in 3 again.
60 years on since our first European triumph……be fitting if Harry can replicate what Jimmy greaves managed to do.
 
Woolwich and UTD fans already getting back to levels of smugness that nearly made the prem unwatchable.

No clue why but feels like this season has a long way to go even if all the top 3 have that boring sense of inevitability about them atm.
 
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