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Transfers January Transfer Thread 2024

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So it's looking very likely we have "only" signed a backup winger on loan and a backup CB for a fairly reasonable sum.

If you isolate that from the fact everyone else is broke as fuck and can't seem to keep the lights on, is it actually a good window? Even for January?

I guess we'll find our as the likes of Sarr, Bissouma and Son come back in February. With a full squad and no cup games, we have an opportunity to try to establish who our absolute best 11 are and if they are good enough.

In some ways, adding a few more would be muddying the water for now. We've seen how adding tonnes of players at Forest and Chelsea just completely confused them both.
Because other top teams are severely hampered by FFP at the moment and we are more secure, not to sign at least another top player seems to not taking advantage of the situation as other top clubs will have more freedom for purchases in the Summer.
 
I'd start him tonight tbh, and happy for him to stay in the squad, he is a great professional and always puts a shift in, he has application which will see him steadily improve into his 20s as long as he is coached well. Could be a very effective 6 for us if he can pick up some tips off Bissouma on how to be elite at press resistance.
I’d go for Skipp,Maddison and Bentancur tonight with Sarr, Bentancur and Hojbjerg away to Everton. Good chances for substitutions on the hour mark.
 
Not much of a revelation, really. It has been proven that transfer spending has little correlation with performance, period. Whether it's January or the summer. So yeah, the more challenging of the two windows will definitely have even less correlation than the average.
It might have little correlation for short term improvement over the following 6 months, but it sure has correlation over the long-term.
 
That January signings don't generally move the needle in terms of performance. There are outliers, of course, but on average the impact is not that great.

I think it's a bad question to start an analysis with anyway.

Are they asking if January transfers can move the needle in terms of performance?

or

Have January transfers been regularly successful at moving the needle for performance?


The answer to the first one is unquestionably, yes.

The second one is harder to answer and you probably can't even study it properly with quantitative data alone.
 
Does the analysis of that look at transfers by number of players, cost, and points per game before Jan and after Jan?
It looks at transfers across an entire season, if I am not mistaken. The premise of the analysis, which is in Soccernomics, is that wages have a much stronger correlation to performance than transfer spend does. This analysis was published a few years back and, now that I'm thinking about it, more data analytics entering the transfer decision-making might yield somewhat different results if it were conducted again today.
 
I think it's a bad question to start an analysis with anyway.

Are they asking if January transfers can move the needle in terms of performance?

or

Have January transfers been regularly successful at moving the needle for performance?


The answer to the first one is unquestionably, yes.

The second one is harder to answer and you probably can't even study it properly with quantitative data alone.
I mean that graph that was shown is exactly how you’d measure it.
 
It looks at transfers across an entire season, if I am not mistaken. The premise of the analysis, which is in Soccernomics, is that wages have a much stronger correlation to performance than transfer spend does. This analysis was published a few years back and, now that I'm thinking about it, more data analytics entering the transfer decision-making might yield somewhat different results if it were conducted again today.
Yeah but teams that have high wages also have high transfer spend. It’s very obvious that both wages and transfer spend would have a strong correlation to winning.

If the study only looks at wages and transfer spend against performance in the current year, then that’s just a flaw in the study because wages are spread out evenly over several years and transfer spend is usually only taken into account at the time of purchase, but that transfer still has impact for several seasons after.
 
I just want Olise has missed 10 games this season and apart from last season has been very injury prone while at Palace. Eze has missed 6 games. I do not think either player should go for anywhere near the prices people are saying. Also I think most of you are overating them.
 
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