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Tactics TFC's Tactical Autopsy Thread

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I've vacillated about a response to this...I have very little interest in going back and forth about Ange (with intransigent AngeIN-ers...perhaps not you but this may be evidence) or about statistical analysis (with those without a firm grasp of statistical analysis...perhaps not you but this may be evidence). I just like shitting on the descriptive statistical circle jerk in here...you should ignore me, bus-conductor bus-conductor does...

Yeah, this is a mess of an post-hoc analysis...and a craning of data into a convenient narrative...but it is most assuredly NOT a determination of a causality...all still correlation my friend.

Some potential confounding matters: relative level of opposition, defensive aggressivity* of opponent, %/number of increased turnovers that actually directly led to a chance (and defining time/#of passes parameters), etc etc etc etc...I could go on for an hour on these. And they would have to be known and controlled for in order to establish something resembling causation.


Let me get this straight, what you see is what you already thought? Hell yeah, now we're talking!!!!

That's all convenient but nothing in this data confirms anything other than a pre-established bias and a desire for matters to fit conveniently into a mitigation narrative...as others would have and will further mention, we were also doing all the losing while those players were here...that's a hell of a confounding factor.

Good luck with any further analysis.
Yeah fair enough.

But stats are always correlative rather than causative, and often used to test a starting hypothesis, so you're going to see a lot of that in the TA thread.

And if you don't believe that the press resistance of Forster and Dragusin has been a significant factor in recent results then you're welcome to present your case.

I suspect your main concern is that when we get our best 11 back in the field the results aren't going to improve significantly / sufficiently. That's a big concern for all of us. So yes some of us look for evidence to support our hope that it will.

But you have a right to challenge that and I ain't putting you on ignore for that.
 
then you're welcome to present your case.

No Way Do Not Want GIF
 
I've vacillated about a response to this...I have very little interest in going back and forth about Ange (with intransigent AngeIN-ers...perhaps not you but this may be evidence) or about statistical analysis (with those without a firm grasp of statistical analysis...perhaps not you but this may be evidence). I just like shitting on the descriptive statistical circle jerk in here...you should ignore me, bus-conductor bus-conductor does...

Yeah, this is a mess of an post-hoc analysis...and a craning of data into a convenient narrative...but it is most assuredly NOT a determination of a causality...all still correlation my friend.

Some potential confounding matters: relative level of opposition, defensive aggressivity* of opponent, %/number of increased turnovers that actually directly led to a chance (and defining time/#of passes parameters), etc etc etc etc...I could go on for an hour on these. And they would have to be known and controlled for in order to establish something resembling causation.


Let me get this straight, what you see is what you already thought? Hell yeah, now we're talking!!!!

That's all convenient but nothing in this data confirms anything other than a pre-established bias and a desire for matters to fit conveniently into a mitigation narrative...as others would have and will further mention, we were also doing all the losing while those players were here...that's a hell of a confounding factor.

Good luck with any further analysis.

And yet, at the end of all thse words, you show you're also just happy to tie a little bow around your own narrative and show yourself to be just as biased and prone to confirmation bias as everyone else.

Unless you think you're somehow immune?

The truth is yes, football cannot, and should not be boiled down to statistics alone.

But it should also not be dumbed down to the point of Talksport style analysis that doesn't put context and nuance at the forefront.

Teams lose football games. It happens all the time for any number of reasons that sometimes overlap. There is nothing wrong with trying to make sense of it outside of 'the manager is shit' and there seems to be a lot of people that simply want to just dumb down the discussion because it challenges what they believe to be true.

It's weird as fuuuuuuck and more cult like than anyone trying to delve into things more deeply than listening to a Jamie O Hara rant
 
And if you don't believe that the press resistance of Forster and Dragusin has been a significant factor in recent results then you're welcome to present your case.
LOL..stop the presses...this might be an actual example of begging the question instead of a misapplication of the term...well done...my man, I need not refute what you've not firmly established...your assertion, your burden*

I suspect your main concern is that when we get our best 11 back in the field the results aren't going to improve significantly / sufficiently.
NO...my main concern is as it always is...people not accepting reality and instead calling balls strikes and strikes balls...and showing us wordy proof of their willful delusions.

But you have a right to challenge that and I ain't putting you on ignore for that.
Wasn't saying 'put me on ignore' (though if that is ever your want then feel free to join the ever-expanding club)...@bus-conductor doesn't have me on ignore...he just ignores me and my provocations like the prick he is...then I just give it to him 100 fold in private...don't worry, BC is my guy...that's why I like to annoy him!

*please don't...I'd rather not go back and forth on this
 
I do indeed look forward to the tactical/statistical breakdown of this one...

iu


CBA to blockout the MU badge...because Ange and his 'tactics' don't deserve that much fucking effort seeing as he's not really put much into it...as I said a long time ago...still hope he makes the year so that some folks can REALLY feel it...
 

BC, you made it!!!!!
excited kermit GIF


I notice CP are almost the very definition of 'average' in these two graphs...should be better as things seem to be gelling. Another is that Bournemouth are bad is either but they give up a fair few shots (of lower quality)...wonder if there is something intrinsic to the tactical setup that allows this? Would be good to know where those shots come from. And I say that because I'm not sure there's an appreciable difference from 0.10 to .014.

That said, is there a stat for expected goal difference? Would be easily calculated but it would be of interest to know how much of our 11 GD is fortunate...and that's disregarding when those goals were scored...which would be a deeper analysis.
 
BC, you made it!!!!!
excited kermit GIF


I notice CP are almost the very definition of 'average' in these two graphs...should be better as things seem to be gelling. Another is that Bournemouth are bad is either but they give up a fair few shots (of lower quality)...wonder if there is something intrinsic to the tactical setup that allows this? Would be good to know where those shots come from. And I say that because I'm not sure there's an appreciable difference from 0.10 to .014.

That said, is there a stat for expected goal difference? Would be easily calculated but it would be of interest to know how much of our 11 GD is fortunate...and that's disregarding when those goals were scored...which would be a deeper analysis.

We are over performing our XG by 2.08 and over performing our XGA by 4.60.
 
If you tally it up we are 6.68 GD better off than actual GD.
Man, you seem reluctant to give me the actual numbers...here they are for all interested...

EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2024/2025 season | Understat.com
  • xG - 42.92 (-2.08)
    • actual goals scored = 45
  • xGA - 39.60 (+4.60)
    • actual goals conceded = 35
  • xGD - 42.92 - 39.60 = +3.32
    • actual goal difference = 10
We let in 61 (GD of 13) last season and are on course to match that this season...in fact, seeing as we were on 28 at the halfway point we are on course to better that this term
But we have 7 points less than our Xpoints.
Didn't ask for this coloration...this is a whole 'nother kettle of fish to piss in...but I can understand why you'd want to throw this in here...
 
Originally I put this comment in the Ange thread but realised that was probably the wrong place for it to actually engender discussion. Talk about xG stats all you want but for me this is what is most criminal about the way we play under Ange and has been an issue for the whole of his time at Spurs, irrespective of which players were available to him.

--------

Not that we really need it, because it should be evident now that this manager doesn't have a clue what he's doing, but just to pick up on the second goal as the first point we let them back into this game:

eL12YKZ.jpeg



- So we're 45 seconds after the start of the second half. We're a goal up against statistically one of the worst form side in the division. Despite that, we are going for a man-to-man press, pushing up in search of a second.

- Nothing wrong with that in principle, but the problem is in the execution: our front 5 are pressing high, but the back 5 aren't condensing the pitch to support them. So, as ever with our "high press" under Postecoglou, if the opposition beat the first line of the press, we're in trouble.

- And this is exactly what happens. Bentancur and Porro (currently out of the picture to the left) belatedly realise they aren't high enough, they aren't tight on their men. And man-to-man presses only work if everyone's actually on their man, but as you can see we've left a few key players unmarked.

- Look at the huge gaping 40 yard hole behind the referee; if something were to cause Bentancur to vacate this space we will be in deep trouble. Let's see what happens next:
ezkusM6.jpeg



- Two seconds later and Porro has been haring up the pitch, too late, and therefore he's easily beaten. All of a sudden they now have three men free on our right flank and we're already in trouble. Some of the front 5 realise but it's too late. Reminder - this is 47 seconds into the second half, just after Ange has given them his half time instructions.

- Now, Porro shouldn't be diving in here; he's too late, the defence aren't pushed up enough, and it leaves us completely exposed. But this is a failure of coaching and coordination between the players. You'd never see a Bournemouth/Ipswich or any team with a competent high pressing manager look like this, because the press is coordinated. This is the biggest clue, bar none, that our manager is well out of his depth.

- Bentancur is left with little choice but to come over and help. But that now leaves Leicesters #10 in acres of space on his own in the danger zone in front of our centre backs. Again, a double pivot would mitigate this, as Sarr would be left in the DM role. But of course that's too defensive for our Ange. Next slide:

GUsYgl2.jpeg



- Now, Bentancur shouldn't be diving in here. Just shepherd the guy into the touchline, prevent the ball inside. But again, I don't blame any individual player for this chaos, this is a collective mess caused by poor coaching.

- Again, look at the completely unmarked number 10 by the ref. Criminal.

- Once Bentancur is beaten, a big chance is inevitable. Whether or not it results in a goal is largely down to Leicester's attack, but to be fair they don't have to do anything special to score from this point. How many times have we said that this season?

- Another thing that should be evident by this stage - this isn't a failing of our centre backs, and Romero and Van De Ven would have changed nothing here, they'd have done nothing to prevent us being in this position (except keeping a higher line, but this was a problem even with them both in the team).

- (And as for personnel, Iraola manages to coach one of the best pressing structures in the league despite Bournemouth having a relegation level squad and 9 players injured, so injuries simply aren't an excuse.)

- This sort of pattern I could have taken from literally any game over the past 15 months or so, including games when we had our full first XI available. Newcastle's second goal for instance, comes from them beating the first line of our press and us being wide open. Brighton's first two goals at the Amex in September - caused by a disorganised press and them working it out both times to their LW under no pressure.

- Even going back as far as 12 months ago, this pattern of play was occuring repeatedly, and it should have been clear back then that this manager was tactically out of his depth and winging it.
 

How losing centre backs has hurt Tottenham’s attack​

Crisitan Romero and Micky van de Ven are critical to build-up play for Ange Postecoglou’s side and their absence has led to issues further up the pitch​

Hamzah Khalique-LoonatJanuary 26 2025, 7.00pm GMT
Illustration of Tottenham Hotspur manager and players.

Dragusin, centre, has had to step in for Romero, right, and Van de Ven, but cannot match their progressive passes, causing problems for Postecoglou, left
Last season Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham Hotspur were probably the neutral’s favourite team. This season they may still be, although for very different reasons.

The refreshing, fearless and attacking football that had Tottenham soaring to the top of the league after ten matches last season has gone, as the team have descended into what appears, at times, an incomprehensible mess.

For those who aren’t quite up to date with the Tottenham’s topsy-turvy season: Spurs have the fourth-most losses in the league; the third-most goals; the tenth-best expected goal difference; the seventh-best actual goal difference; have lost four consecutive league matches; are 15th; have one foot in the Carabao Cup final, having beaten Liverpool in the first leg, yet have the third-worst odds of winning the competition; and they remain the favourites for the Europa League.

In short: something very strange is going on at Tottenham.

Postecoglou has assigned much of this bizarre form to injuries — and he’s got a point. Of the team which lost 2-1 to Leicester City, six starting players — Guglielmo Vicario, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, Destiny Udogie, Brennan Johnson and Dominic Solanke — were unavailable for selection due to injury.

In addition, the squad players Timo Werner, Wilson Odobert and Djed Spence were unavailable.

Also returning to fitness was Yves Bissouma (named on the bench) and Pape Matar Sarr, who was selected to start, but Postecoglou admitted afterwards that he was not fully fit.

Across the defence this season, Spurs have had just one starting player available for all 23 matches: Pedro Porro. Whereas his team-mates Udogie (1,430 minutes, 15.9 matches), Vicario (1,080mins, 12 matches), Romero (974mins, 10.8 matches) and Van de Ven (788mins, 8.8 matches) have missed considerable action.

The centre backs have played a combined 1,762 minutes of a possible 4,140 — less than half of their potential league minutes.

The problem with that (beyond the obvious difficulties of playing without your best defenders and goalkeeper) is that they are critical components of Tottenham’s build-up play. In a seminar with Hudl in 2020, when Postecoglou was still manager of the Yokohama Mariners, he laid out his principles.

“For me it starts with the ball,” he said. “Everything we coach and preach starts with the ball. There are certain things that are non-negotiable, and the first is that I want my teams to have the ball. So our attacking and defensive philosophy is measured around that.

“Possession is important, but it’s not just possession, because if we kept the ball with no real purpose, a) we wouldn’t be successful, and b) it wouldn’t be exciting.

“Are we playing forward, are we getting close to the goal so we can have shots? Ultimately it’s about goalscoring. We need to play out from the back all the time. And that means putting players in difficult situations, goalkeepers, defenders, who in many respects at times would prefer probably not to receive the ball in certain areas, but we’re saying we need to.”

Spurs tend to play in a 2-3-5 shape, which is designed to have lots of passing options infield, and one-on-one opportunities for the wingers on the touchline.

Soccer game in progress, score 1-1.

That shape necessitates the goalkeeper and centre backs having responsibility for moving the ball forward.

Van de Ven averages 4.89 progressive passes per 90 this season, and Romero 4.44. Both are well ahead of Radu Dragusin (2.66) and Archie Gray (2.16).

But it’s not just a matter of passing, it’s also about carrying the ball forward, either into space, or to draw an opponent out and create space for a team-mate.

In this respect, Romero is the more important of the centre backs. This season he averages 197.8 yards of “progressive distance” per match.

While the Romania defender Dragusin’s “progressive distance” is not too dissimilar from Van de Ven’s, the Netherlands international often pulls wide, to create angles for his team-mates.

But what does this mean for Tottenham in a practical sense?

The result of this stymied build-up is that their most attacking (and best players) such as Son Heung-min and Dejan Kulusevski have less involvement inside the opposition penalty area, as their defensive team-mates struggle to find them further upfield. They have been starved of possession.

This is a classic domino effect. Because Tottenham struggle to move the ball upfield, they find it difficult to control the pitch, and force opponents deeper.

That has two immediate consequences: it’s more challenging to keep possession, as the opposition are not being forced into defending their own area; and it’s harder to press, as instead of cooping a team in their defensive third, Tottenham are chasing opponents all over the field. Which is reflected in Tottenham’s falling share of possession, compared with the highs of last season.

Likewise, the intensity of Tottenham’s press — measured by their PPDA, the average number of passes their opponents take before they make a defensive action — has declined too.

Last season Tottenham’s PPDA was 8.8, this season it is 9.3.

“The defending side again is about the ball,” Postecoglou explained. “As a coach when I’m watching the game I’m just not comfortable when I’m watching the opponent with the ball. I don’t want to be in a situation where I’m watching the opposition working us around the pitch looking for space.

“A lot of that is immediate pressure after we’ve lost the ball; pressure high up the pitch away from our goal, where if we win it, there’s a massive reward. Our whole defensive strategy is about ‘Can we get the ball off the opposition as quickly as possible, as far away from our goal as possible?’ ”

Tottenham still press high. To stay compact, they position their defenders on halfway. But without Van de Ven’s pace, Romero’s heading and Vicario’s sweeping, long passes in behind are effective at exploiting Tottenham’s press.

Consequently, Tottenham have become easy to play through. They have faced 28 “fast-break” shots this season, the third most in the league.

And the nature of these shots tend to be high quality. The average shot faced by Tottenham this season has an xG of 0.14, the joint highest in the league.

Postecoglou has been cast as an ideologue for his unrelenting commitment to his principles. In that same interview in 2020, he said: “When my team is playing, I pretend my father is in the grandstand and thinking, would he be enjoying watching this team?”

“That’s always been the root of everything I’ve done. So when people say have you had challenges of changing your playing style, or questions, I can’t shift, because for me where it all started from is more powerful than any sort of challenges I’ll get externally, whether it’s criticism from owners, or media or supporters or even players question my beliefs… It’s so deep rooted it will never change.”

It’s a powerful message, often misunderstood and misinterpreted. The manager has never said he would not make tactical tweaks, just that his objective of always seeking possession and using it offensively is paramount.

So when he makes tweaks they are designed to achieve those principles, such as a recent alteration to his full backs’ positions. In his time at Celtic and especially last season, Postecoglou caught the eye with how he inverted both of his full backs into midfield.

According to Opta, Spurs typically have the narrowest full backs in the top flight, and the second highest too. They often sit alongside the deep midfielder, but frequently join the attacking line.

The central positioning of those players was supposed to provide passing options to control the middle of the pitch, outnumber their opponents and build forward with greater ease. However, with Dragusin, Gray and Antonin Kinsky struggling to move the ball to the midfield line, Postecoglou instructed his inverted full backs to drop deeper, to assist the team’s build-up.

In the image below, Gray (nearest to the touchline) is in a conventional full-back position.

The problem is, it hasn’t worked. Spurs had situations such as this, where Dragusin couldn’t find a team-mate further forward, so he moved the ball across to Ben Davies, who encountered a similar problem.

Without a defender confident enough to stride forward, attract a man and play a combination to break Leicester’s first line, Spurs were reduced to playing around Leicester’s block.

“Even under pressure our goalkeepers and defenders are constantly looking for short options. It’s not about going forward for no reason, it’s looking for where the space is and creating space to eventually be able to attack with some purpose,” Postecoglou said.

However, his defenders are struggling to find those short options.

So, is there anything that can be done? Well there are a couple areas for improvement, notwithstanding the injury situation.

Tighten up in midfield

At the weekend some of Tottenham’s midfielders had a rotten start to the game, where they coughed up possession needlessly.

Here’s an example of how the press is supposed to work, when Tottenham are in a mid-block.

They man-mark their opponents, cover the centre and guide Leicester out wide. Rodrigo Bentancur steps across and intercepts the pass.

It’s a clean ball recovery, exactly the sort of thing Postecoglou would love to see. But looseness from Sarr gifted possession to Leicester.

A similar situation plays out here, with Bentancur losing possession three times in a sequence.

Cutting mistakes like these out would go a long way.

Adjust the press

Opponents find it easier to play through Tottenham’s press than that of other teams such as Woolwich, Bournemouth and Liverpool, for example. The reasons for this are two-fold: there are triggers that are easy for an opponent to identify and exploit. Such as this:


View: https://x.com/HKhaliqueLoonat/status/1871522236659904603


And Tottenham, who use a man-to-man press, don’t give themselves much cover (in the form of a spare man), so when a pass like this is made out wide, and Tottenham lose a duel, suddenly it becomes very easy to run through the team.

Asking one of the wingers or full backs on the opposite side of the ball to leave their opponent and act as a spare man infield may give the team the cover to deal with these breaks.
 
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