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Maffs 'n' graffs - statistical porn

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I've seen a general-football analysis of results somewhere proving the 'new manager' bounce, that results improve for the first 5-10 games then fall back to the same win percentage the last manager had before getting the sack. What does Timmy's win% so far compare with AVBs last 20?
 
Danpovic said:
I've seen a general-football analysis of results somewhere proving the 'new manager' bounce, that results improve for the first 5-10 games then fall back to the same win percentage the last manager had before getting the sack. What does Timmy's win% so far compare with AVBs last 20?
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I'll do a first-to-last 20 comparison shortly

Unsurprisingly, Santini's is the same
 
Ermm.... Sorry André!

Another very interesting one. Last 20 games. Done for both league games and in all competitions (with points column used based on the league games)

Edited: Santini's stats were out, fixed...


winrate.jpg
 
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CJJ said:
Ermm.... Sorry André!

Another very interesting one. Last 20 games. Done for both league games and in all competitions (with points column used based on the league games)


winrate.jpg
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Firstly, that is brilliant. You've outdone yourself. Secondly, I thought as much. 50% is SLIGHTLY on the lower side... but when you consider some of those games were free scoring city and liverpool.. its not that bad. The newcastle and spammers games affect it badly as well.
 
Anthony Beale said:
Firstly, that is brilliant. You've outdone yourself. Secondly, I thought as much. 50% is SLIGHTLY on the lower side... but when you consider some of those games were free scoring city and liverpool.. its not that bad. The newcastle and spammers games affect it badly as well.
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I'm doing the pass the baton one now. Santini's stats are slightly off on that version, so I'll update that shortly
 
Éperons said:
Considering we only have eight matches left this season, I'd say it means that you have your first 12 datapoints for TS in hand.
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Not following.

Tim Sherwood's first 20 games in all comps are the same as all the other manager's first 20 games in all comps for the first stats. That's why I did it based on 20
 
CJJ said:
Not following.
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I mean that of TS's last 20, you already know the results of 12 of the matches.

Anyway, I suspect that "last 20" is an astonishingly long window to give a manager. Was AVB's 20th-to-last match even this season? I'm pretty firmly in the speculative camp that AVB's days became numbered (either because of his own exasperation or because of actually getting the sack) only on the tails of the two drubbings. West Ham home was a catastrophe (as was Newcastle home), but they could be considered flukes, within that realm of ~3–4 home losses every club that finishes around fourth can expect to have.

Losing 6–0 and then 5–0 at home shortly thereafter looks like a man who has no idea of how to secure fourth. And I suspect that Levy started breathing down his neck about that, which was only compounded by our lack of offensive nous, etc., etc.…
 
Éperons said:
I mean that of TS's last 20, you already know the results of 12 of the matches.

Anyway, I suspect that "last 20" is an astonishingly long window to give a manager. Was AVB's 20th-to-last match even this season? I'm pretty firmly in the speculative camp that AVB's days became numbered (either because of his own exasperation or because of actually getting the sack) only on the tails of the two drubbings. West Ham home was a catastrophe (as was Newcastle home), but they could be considered flukes, within that realm of ~3–4 home losses every club that finishes around fourth can expect to have.

Losing 6–0 and then 5–0 at home shortly thereafter looks like a man who has no idea of how to secure fourth. And I suspect that Levy started breathing down his neck about that, which was only compounded by our lack of offensive nous, etc., etc.…
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There is no last 20 for Sherwood on this whole thread.

I'm not reply to the rest as you've not read any of the thread, including the 'rules'
 
Some more data again. Bit of variance for totals in all comps too, which compare that of the previous line.

If more narrow stats are wanted it can be done.

Again, this is pure data and nothing is being implied about each person, so no high horses or tears before bedtime please

newman.jpg
 
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For some reason there's an of FA cup game each which I missed for Redknapp, Ramos and possible Gross, giving them higher overall win rates for the starting 20 games, so I'll edit the big graphs on the previous page

Edit: Now fixed. All should be correct.

All the results and manager start dates are from www.soccerbase.com
 
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CJJ said:
There is no last 20 for Sherwood on this whole thread.
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Ok. IT WAS A JOKE. In that we've already lived 12 of Sherwood's final 20 matches as manager, so you can start planning your "last 20" for him as well.

CJJ said:
I'm not reply to the rest as you've not read any of the thread, including the 'rules'
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Seriously? You consider what I wrote "complaining about the subject"? I wasn't. I was complaining about the methodology. I love the subject. Part of why I love the subject is that it exposes its methodology, so we can all look at it and discuss it.

I venture that there is going to be an abstractable difference between a manager's last n matches in charge and his overall performance to suggest what kind of performance earns the sack. I only suspect that 20 is too large for some n.
 
Éperons said:
Ok. IT WAS A JOKE. In that we've already lived 12 of Sherwood's final 20 matches as manager, so you can start planning your "last 20" for him as well.


Seriously? You consider what I wrote "complaining about the subject"? I wasn't. I was complaining about the methodology. I love the subject. Part of why I love the subject is that it exposes its methodology, so we can all look at it and discuss it.

I venture that there is going to be an abstractable difference between a manager's last n matches in charge and his overall performance to suggest what kind of performance earns the sack. I only suspect that 20 is too large for some n.

But don't respond.
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My Apologies.

I'm on the defensive as I'm expecting people to jump down my throat for exposing reality... Such as, based on overall performance figures and excluding outside statistics, Sherwood is the first manager for 20 years that has performed worse in his first 20 games than the previous manager did in his last 20 games.

Reason why I didn't want anyone to start complaining about the methodology is because I'm not really wanting it to turn into the argument thread, if you know what I mean.

Again, sorry for snapping a little - it sounded like a knee-jerk post!

I've change the parameter of the last 'n' to be 10 in all competitions, which seems to be a fairer number which allows Santini to be considered
 
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