The free models that are available on the internet definitely don't afaik. Think the context you mentioned and more will definitely be taken into account by clubs.
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Manager Ange Postecoglou
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No, he is not.
There are players who are more clinical than average (outperforming xG) and players who are less clinical then average (underperforming xG).
Have you found an actual breakdown of the input for xG. Opta created and everyone tweaks around it but Opta only ever released the marketing blurb to the public. I’m sure clubs and analyst training courses have the actúa metric but without seeing it, we are just guessing
What is an outlier for you? Technically
What can be found online in terms of the models is basically stuff like angle, pressure, body part, attack situation etc.
I'm sure clubs, especially switched on ones, will have stuff about footedness, the strength of the opposing GK, game state etc but that's just an educated guess tbh.
I’ve seen that stuff in the blurb as well but never seen the actual formula to know exactly what goes into it.
Most of us basically eating processed food with no ingredients list.
Definitely agree that big clubs will have their own analytics dept that tweak the metric for the context that matters to them. Could be footedness but maybe even stuff like their own areas of the pitch they prefer to force teams to attack from, number of actions needed to create the chance, or whatever their defensive/offensive structures are designed around.
View: https://x.com/datamb_/status/1838317513626784040?s=46&t=DK3x3JffKkqwqcsQdIeO_A
Again small sample size but the idea that teams just allow us to press them and turn it over on purpose against us… it’s just fucking absurd.
Not on purpose but they set themselves up to counter our thin defence when we've been attacking and lose the ball.
He earned a stay of execution on Saturday.
But he has 2 more games coming up where he needs to win.
He needs to put on a good show in the ropey league as I don't believe we've played well in a single cup game to date? (Fulham, Burnley, City, Coventry)
Then, IMO, he needs to go to OT and win. In years gone by, I think that statement would be preposterous. But in 2024, there isn't much between the teams. There is no reason we can't go there and win for the first time in a few seasons other than shitting the bed for no good reason.
For me, I'm not going to spend the next 6 days arguing against Ange.
Let's see what we do in these 2 upcoming games.
But he has 2 more games coming up where he needs to win.
He needs to put on a good show in the ropey league as I don't believe we've played well in a single cup game to date? (Fulham, Burnley, City, Coventry)
Then, IMO, he needs to go to OT and win. In years gone by, I think that statement would be preposterous. But in 2024, there isn't much between the teams. There is no reason we can't go there and win for the first time in a few seasons other than shitting the bed for no good reason.
For me, I'm not going to spend the next 6 days arguing against Ange.
Let's see what we do in these 2 upcoming games.
Why would teams let's us 'press them' lol. I've seen no one claim that. People making up their own arguments. Arteta did not contest possession with us in the middle third and he isn't the first to do it, because a few coaches have realised if they don't get drawn to our underlapping fullbacks, stay compact and disciplined we just recycle the ball in front them for huge chunks of time.
when did you start supporting - must have been during Ryan Masons last interim manager stint?
Yeah the best way to beat us is to hold back and attack at the key moments.
We can't press a team into mistakes if we already have the ball.
Pressing and possession are unrelated.
I bet we won far more presses against Brentford than Woolwich and Leicester. Possibly even Newcastle. Because against Brentford, they had a lot more of the ball in order for us to press than the other 3.
That's the difference between giving up possession and having the ball taken off you.
I think you will find that einstein level piece of analysis pretty much works for every team
And that's why they play that way against us, our defence is particularly vulnerable to it.
It’s also the only way because we are pressing that well atm that we don’t give teams much choice. I guess City and Liverpool will be a huge test of that to see if we can press them as well, or they dominate us.
Set themselves up or work on that because it’s the only way they can is up for debate. Brentford had a go at us and pressed back more.
Either way, have we actually conceded a goal on the counter yet? 1 goal from set pieces as well after playing Dyche, woolwich and Brentford, 3 of the best in the prem.
It will never be perfect but there’s definitely signs of progress on the Achilles heels of last season
Didn't Newcastle pass the ball into our empty goal? I don't recall the exact details tbh.
People have absolutely been claiming that teams let us have the ball,
How are we supposed to have the ball if we don’t win it back from them?
Or you are straight face trying to claim that our possession dominance isn’t because of our press but because teams just pass us the ball so they can sit deep and counter ?
Wasn’t a counter attack. They broke our press