Competition Is It Match Fixing?

[dudu]

No, you’ve added an additional layer to blur the lines and avoid my point. If tackles-to-fouls ratios are similar across teams then fair enough, but that is not the argument. The issue is the foul-to-yellow card ratio afterwards, where Spurs are clearly being punished far more harshly whilst Woolwich are getting a far more lenient threshold.

You only need to look at some of the reds we’ve received compared to what others have got away with in similar situations. The consistency is not there.

Same with penalties. Being 5th for touches in the box and having zero penalties could maybe be dismissed in isolation, but it is not in isolation. When you combine that with the yellow card stats and red card discrepancies, it starts to show a pattern rather than just random variance.

People keep shouting out of context about the chart, but context works both ways. You cannot dismiss every stat individually whilst ignoring the cumulative picture they create together.

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Not really.

Players are more likely to get booked the more fouls they make for example.

The more tackles you make, the more likely you are to foul the more fouls you make the more likely you are to get booked. Especially if it is the same player making fouls multiple times in a game.

That said, it is true Woolwich are the outlier here - but we are not in the slightest - statistically we have a very typical ratio compared to most of the table there....

Woolwich getting preferential treatment? OK this is a compelling start to figuring that out - us getting worse treatment - i dont see it

 

[Beni]

Not really.

Players are more likely to get booked the more fouls they make for example.

The more tackles you make, the more likely you are to foul the more fouls you make the more likely you are to get booked. Especially if it is the same player making fouls multiple times in a game.

That said, it is true Woolwich are the outlier here - but we are not in the slightest - statistically we have a very typical ratio compared to most of the table there....

Woolwich getting preferential treatment? OK this is a compelling start to figuring that out - us getting worse treatment - i dont see it

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You’re still not really looking at the actual stat being discussed though.

You keep going back to tackles leading to fouls leading to cards, but the chart is not tackles-to-yellow cards. It is fouls-to-yellow cards.

On average it takes around 4 fouls for Spurs to receive a yellow, and around 8 for Woolwich. That is a massive difference in refereeing threshold. Not a small variance.

So yes, more fouls will naturally lead to more bookings over time, nobody disputes that. But when one team is getting booked twice as quickly for the same end action, that is where the issue is.

And saying Spurs have a “typical ratio” ignores that we are literally bottom of both charts being discussed. Woolwich are the extreme lenient outlier at one end, we are the extreme harsh outlier at the other. That is exactly why people are questioning it.

 

[dudu]

You’re still not really looking at the actual stat being discussed though.

You keep going back to tackles leading to fouls leading to cards, but the chart is not tackles-to-yellow cards. It is fouls-to-yellow cards.

On average it takes around 4 fouls for Spurs to receive a yellow, and around 8 for Woolwich. That is a massive difference in refereeing threshold. Not a small variance.

So yes, more fouls will naturally lead to more bookings over time, nobody disputes that. But when one team is getting booked twice as quickly for the same end action, that is where the issue is.

And saying Spurs have a “typical ratio” ignores that we are literally bottom of both charts being discussed. Woolwich are the extreme lenient outlier at one end, we are the extreme harsh outlier at the other. That is exactly why people are questioning it.

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Yes, between us and Woolwich, between us and most of the rest of the table, though?

Less than one foul per card between us and what, 10 teams above us - that does not point to us being reffed differently to any of them.

There is even a team below us - how can we outlier - the data does not say that??

 

[Beni]

Yes, between us and Woolwich, between us and most of the rest of the table, though?

Less than one foul per card between us and what, 10 teams above us - that does not point to us being reffed differently to any of them.

There is even a team below us - how can we outlier - the data does not say that??

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You’re still looking at every stat in isolation though.

If it was just one graph over one season then fair enough, you could dismiss it as variance. But it is not one graph and it is not one season. Similar patterns have been there for the last 3 years across multiple stats.

You also seem to think bias only exists if Spurs are miles away from every other club statistically. That is not how the real world works. Different thresholds and tolerances can still exist without the gap being enormous.

And it is not just this one stat either. It is the foul-to-yellow ratio, red card decisions, and zero penalties despite high touches in the box. Individually you can explain away one of them. Together, over multiple seasons, it starts to form a pattern.

 

[1882]

Does anyone else think Kolo Muani is the Trojan horse installed by Vinai to deliberately sabotage from within?

I'm starting to think no one player can be THAT bad unless it's deliberate!
He's clearly shown he has talent against his OLD CLUBS this season....
It just makes me think his 'talent' might have been used for evil all along... Not good!

 

[dudu]

You’re still looking at every stat in isolation though.

If it was just one graph over one season then fair enough, you could dismiss it as variance. But it is not one graph and it is not one season. Similar patterns have been there for the last 3 years across multiple stats.

You also seem to think bias only exists if Spurs are miles away from every other club statistically. That is not how the real world works. Different thresholds and tolerances can still exist without the gap being enormous.

And it is not just this one stat either. It is the foul-to-yellow ratio, red card decisions, and zero penalties despite high touches in the box. Individually you can explain away one of them. Together, over multiple seasons, it starts to form a pattern.

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What patterns other than penalties have been there the last 3 years - show me?

Last year we were second top of the card to fouls ratio - Premier League Team With Most Fouls Per Yellow Card 24/25 | StatMuse

And our fouls-to-tackles ratio this year is very very normal compared to last years average

If anything, this data shows Chelsea to be suffering 'bias' by this metric much more than us .

 

[Waldo Gascoigne]

What patterns other than penalties have been there the last 3 years - show me?

Last year we were second top of the card to fouls ratio - Premier League Team With Most Fouls Per Yellow Card 24/25 | StatMuse

And our fouls-to-tackles ratio this year is very very normal compared to last years average

If anything, this data shows Chelsea to be suffering 'bias' by this metric much more than us .

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IMHO 2 of the dirtiest,sneakiest players in the league are Gabriel amd Van Dyke. Gabriel has only 4 yellows this season and Van Dyke has 2. I’d love to see an explanation from refs and VAR for that stat.

 

[dudu]

IMHO 2 of the dirtiest,sneakiest players in the league are Gabriel amd Van Dyke. Gabriel has only 4 yellows this season and Van Dyke has 2. I’d love to see an explanation from refs and VAR for that stat.

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Cant argue with the premise that they get unconsciously biased treatment.

 

[GinolasLeftFoot]

You’re still looking at every stat in isolation though.

If it was just one graph over one season then fair enough, you could dismiss it as variance. But it is not one graph and it is not one season. Similar patterns have been there for the last 3 years across multiple stats.

You also seem to think bias only exists if Spurs are miles away from every other club statistically. That is not how the real world works. Different thresholds and tolerances can still exist without the gap being enormous.

And it is not just this one stat either. It is the foul-to-yellow ratio, red card decisions, and zero penalties despite high touches in the box. Individually you can explain away one of them. Together, over multiple seasons, it starts to form a pattern.

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You shouldn't have to look at stats... I generally watch the games, and what I see is a lot of yellow cards, for nothings, and slightest touch on an opposing player, is a yellow card...

If the system broken, why use stats, coz they will be wrong and not a true reflection?

 

[Matt1882]

No. Wrong. The technology CREATES those incentives in a way that is inherent and immovable, it is the absolute laws of physics that video replay will swallow the game, it CANNOT be otherwise.

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I think the game would get even worse if we took VAR away
There's no reason it can't work. It just needs normal human beings with an ounce of common sense to implement it properly and make it work,

We are top of yellow cards and second from bottom on around 4 fouls per yellow card compared to Woolwich at around 8.

Premier League Team With Most Fouls Per Yellow Card 25/26 | StatMuse

Woolwich have the most fouls committed per yellow card by a club in the Premier League this season, with 7.58.

www.statmuse.com

And touches in box versus penalties awarded

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No point arguing with him. Every ref in the league could be found guilty with a stack of evidence and you'd still find him arguing with you.
Every week, evidence gets more and more, well, evident. But some fans are wedded to an opinion the formed ages ago.

 

[Matt1882]

IMHO 2 of the dirtiest,sneakiest players in the league are Gabriel amd Van Dyke. Gabriel has only 4 yellows this season and Van Dyke has 2. I’d love to see an explanation from refs and VAR for that stat.

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Another mind blowing stat.
Soucek has 3 yellows this season.
Massive, lumbering, dirty CM.
3 yellows.
Van De Ven has 9 and Porro has 10.

 

[dudu]

I think the game would get even worse if we took VAR away
There's no reason it can't work. It just needs normal human beings with an ounce of common sense to implement it properly and make it work,



No point arguing with him. Every ref in the league could be found guilty with a stack of evidence and you'd still find him arguing with you.
Every week, evidence gets more and more, well, evident. But some fans are wedded to an opinion the formed ages ago.

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We aren't arguing, mate - it's two people debating what the stats show

I literally said that arsneal in this stat are an outlier and it provides interesting data to back up the claim they are being favoured.

It is not my fault the Spurs data in the same set doesnt show that - and furthermore - the previous season - where we also finished 17th - we were awarded LESS cards per foul than 95% of the league

 

[dudu]

You shouldn't have to look at stats... I generally watch the games, and what I see is a lot of yellow cards, for nothings, and slightest touch on an opposing player, is a yellow card...

If the system broken, why use stats, coz they will be wrong and not a true reflection?

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But if they show a very tiny spread of yellows awarded for fouls, then yes, the system might be broken, but it is not just us affected -

 

[Matt1882]

Does anyone else think Kolo Muani is the Trojan horse installed by Vinai to deliberately sabotage from within?

I'm starting to think no one player can be THAT bad unless it's deliberate!
He's clearly shown he has talent against his OLD CLUBS this season....
It just makes me think his 'talent' might have been used for evil all along... Not good!

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The last player I recall being so bad it was like having 10 men or worse was......late stage Christian Eriksen. He was blatantly not putting any effort in. He was pitiful.

 

[GinolasLeftFoot]

But if they show a very tiny spread of yellows awarded for fouls, then yes, the system might be broken, but it is not just us affected -

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Apart from the sheer number of of wrong descions that have gone away.

As I said before, all two handed pushes on our players, the goals have stood.

All two hand touches by us, have been goals disallowed or penalties.

That is deliberate.

 

[dudu]

Another mind blowing stat.
Soucek has 3 yellows this season.
Massive, lumbering, dirty CM.
3 yellows.
Van De Ven has 9 and Porro has 10.

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Looking at players with more than 10 appearances this season....

VDV is 81st in the league for cards per 90 mins played... same as Martinelli - lower than Lewis-Skelly and Gabriel Jesus.....

Porro is 53rd

Liverpool has 2 in the top 3

Our only player in the top 10 is Bissouma.

 

[1882]

The last player I recall being so bad it was like having 10 men or worse was......late stage Christian Eriksen. He was blatantly not putting any effort in. He was pitiful.

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Jesus, is that the best/worst example you could find??

Difference being, he PLAYED EXCEPTIONALLY for us once upon a time...
Muani hasn't been exceptional ONCE... there's the difference!

Eriksen during the op to have his pacemaker fitted would still put in a better shift than Muani has!

In terms of input, I'd compare Muani with Andy Booth or Gregorz Rasiak!!

 

[Beni]

You shouldn't have to look at stats... I generally watch the games, and what I see is a lot of yellow cards, for nothings, and slightest touch on an opposing player, is a yellow card...

If the system broken, why use stats, coz they will be wrong and not a true reflection?

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Agreed. The stats back up what the eye is seeing.

 

[Matt1882]

Jesus, is that the best/worst example you could find??

Difference being, he PLAYED EXCEPTIONALLY for us once upon a time...
Muani hasn't been exceptional ONCE... there's the difference!

Eriksen during the op to have his pacemaker fitted would still put in a better shift than Muani has!

In terms of input, I'd compare Muani with Andy Booth or Gregorz Rasiak!!

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Go back and watch him.
As good as he was at his best, he was beyond awful. It was so bad it was like he was deliberately trying to cost us.
Muani is shite. But at least he'd get the ball 20 yards up the pitch most of the time. Eriksen was "accidentally" unable to control a ball and gave it to the oppo every single time.
I recall saying at the time it was worse than 10 men, as the missing man in a 10 man team doesn't give the ball away so much.

 

[Matt1882]

Apart from the sheer number of of wrong descions that have gone away.

As I said before, all two handed pushes on our players, the goals have stood.

All two hand touches by us, have been goals disallowed or penalties.

That is deliberate.

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Don't waste your time.