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Tactics TFC's Tactical Autopsy Thread
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Feels like more than 4.0 per game. Currently seems we turn the ball over in the final third once every two times the oppo have possession. It's bloody relentless.
Does that suggest we haven't scored a single goal from a sequence of play following turning the ball over in the final 40% of the pitch? Basically not one goal has been directly attributed to our much vaunted winning the ball back high numbers?
Bit harsh on the judging of a goal.
Our equaliser against Brentford was the very definition of high turnover and scoring from it. Though I imagine the fact the goal came after Solanke bundled in a saved shot is the reason it isn't counted
Our equalising goal was definitely caused by a high turnover. Maddison intercept nearly the edge of the box, shot saved into the path of Solanke who scored.
Yeah, so basically it comes down to stats taking the art out of the game of football. Sanitising and compartmentalising it. I guess, as always the figures can give you an overall impression, but for me watching the games gives you a more rounded view of how the team is performing.
Not sure I agree. The misuse of stats detract from the game but stats are useful to generate questions when used in context with what your eyes see/saw.
This is a great example.
The stats say: Spurs have been great in the press but are yet to produce and actual goal from a high turnover. (This is a question)
The eye test says: The Brentford equaliser was absolutely from a high turnover and we have scored goals from slightly deeper turnovers that were also produced by our press. (This is an answer)
If the stat is used as an answer - which 99.9% of pundits and fans do - then it's detracting from the game IMO. If they are used as a question then they add to the game because we can learn about it and find things we had missed.
Yet it feels like the actual statisticians don't want their data to be questions/questioned at all. That's how it appears to me anyway. I'm obviously not invilved in the industry in any shape so am probably entirely wrong about their raison d'etre. I find myself trying to be interested / excited by these measurements but always falling back to the "yeah, but did you see that flick/how hard he went in on their midfielders"
Nobody has to look at stats? They are completely optional, so not sure how they can take the art out of the game?
We can all watch and form opinions. Stats and metrics just provide extra context/content and often reveal stuff that the eyes can’t or don’t see or don’t want to - because we all apply our own confirmation biases etc.
They can reveal when teams are underperforming or over performing their results for example- which can predict longer term trend.
But for fans they are entirely optional.
Yup, like I said, I find myself wanting to be analytical, but just can't. I'm not sure why but I do feel like they are permeating more and more into the general zeitgeist of the game. And although I'm sure they are avoidable, it seems that nowadays it actually takes effort to do so.
Hmm, so Newcastle seem to be playing counter-attacking football in general and didn't just seemingly do it against us?
That's partly what I took from this. Their high press seems to have dropped off too; if you look at the stats they are now way down in the bottom third. This is not the relentless, pressing machine that took it to PSG at St James' Park twelve months ago. More like the Newcastle Howe initially created in his first year; defensively solid, time-wasting, counter attacking.
One thing you can't say about Howe is he's not tactically flexible. His Bournemouth and Newcastle teams have played plenty of vastly different styles, which I think is credit to him as it's showing he's making the best of what they've got. Newcastle simply don't have the squad to be able to play at 200% intensity all year round, so he's adapting, and it's keeping them in the mixer. So far this season they've beaten us and had a very good performance against City.
One question I have though is his squad building. With their FFP problems and the gaping hole on their right wing where Minteh should be I'm not sure how smart the signings of Lewis Hall, Tonali, Barnes & co for big money are looking right now. And £70m this summer for Marc Guehi would have been insane - he's a decent defender but never worth that much. Howe seems to have an obsession for overpriced English players which isn't conducive to building a squad on a budget. The squad he left at Bournemouth too was largely Championship standard despite being in the Prem for so long.
It's also why I think he'd be quite suited to the England job - removes his substandard squad-building from the equation, and he can just focus on the coaching and tactics. And he's tactically flexible which I think all international managers need.
Could this not have been down to
A) Going down to 10 men against Southampton and therefore playing a more counter attacking game
B) Playing Spurs and City in two of their other opening 6 games?
I could see how half the games played can quite comfortably skew their particular metrics.
View: https://x.com/DataAnalyticEPL/status/1841165531958641033?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1841165531958641033%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=
This is an interesting graph:
- There is a clear correlation between style of play and league position, but it's not one to one; you've got teams in there like Southampton who are very much the "high possession, high press" mould but it doesn't seem to be translating to results, or even good performances, even against teams they should arguably be competing with.
- I haven't yet seen Southampton's game against Bournemouth but those teams represent an interesting contrast of styles; Iraola likes to basically lump the ball forward as quickly as possible and then press like mad on the second ball, Martin is slow and intricate in build up almost to a fault.
- Iraola's is not necessarily the style of play I'd like to see Spurs adopt but I can see why it would be an effective tactic for teams in the bottom half of the table; it keeps the ball away from your goal as much as possible, perhaps a strategy Southampton could learn something from.
- Re Ipswich, based on their opener against Liverpool I thought they would be more "high pressy" than this. Perhaps it's a function of the quality of their squad. Need to watch their Villa game, they've not had an easy start. Still think McKenna could keep them up, they seem to display a good mixture of pragmatism and modern tactics. Would be an incredible achievement if he does, that squad is largely League One quality.
- Newcastle have changed their style from last year but I've already written about that. Woolwich are also a lot lower but I suspect some of that is reflective of their two games down to 10 men. Would wait for a larger sample size before concluding Arteta has fully transitioned into Moyes.
- Chelsea appear to be more of a "mid block" side in the games I've watched than the high pressing outfit under Poch. And, early days, but it seems to be suiting their squad quite well, annoyingly.
- Silva seems to be quietly transforming this Fulham side into one with a higher press and more possession. What he's achieved there shouldn't be sniffed at, taking a team up from the Champ, establishing them as a mid-table Prem side and finally transforming them into one with a more modern style, all without investing heavily in the squad and while adapting to the loss of big players like Palhinha. He could be one to watch as the next one to make a move up to a 'big 6' outfit. If United are smart they'll have him on their radar.
Yeh fair point. Small sample size will definitely be affecting all these metrics (see Woolwich).
That said, I watched their game against Bournemouth and their style does seem to have shifted. They don't seem to have quite the same energy as they did last year, especially not in their front three. Maybe because they just weren't as good in that game and the game was more transitional.
The thing I remember reading about high turnovers is that relatively few of them actually result in goals. But the purpose isn't just to score from them; it's also about sustaining pressure, not letting the opposition settle, winning free kicks and corners, and also forcing the opponents to kick long in a panic, or make frantic rushed passes that don't result in anything.
Agree about the England job - think he would actually be a perfect fit for it and i'd genuinely be excited about watching us under him.
Will be interesting to see that graph profess as the season wears on and compare to see how teams are evolving and being flexible.
I can imagine that we will remain firmly where we are seeing right now.
Yeah, you cannot underestimate the mental fatigue our kind of pressing will cause for teams, no idea where the next press is coming from and it could be in areas players would typically feel safe
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