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Brentford under the spotlight in this talk at Birkbeck Monday 7th, 6-8pm

I'll be booking in (free) . As I'm in London that day I'll be there rather than online

Smart Money: The Fall & Rise Of Brentford FC - How Brentford reached the Premier League Using Mathematics



Alex Duff





Dear Colleagues

We are pleased to welcome the writer and journalist Lex Duff to Birkbeck on Monday 7th October (6pm-8pm).

The event can be attended both FACE-TO-FACE and ON-LINE.

In this presentation, drawing on material from his recently published book Smart Money: The Fall & Rise Of Brentford FC, author and journalist Alex Duff will tell the story of how a scientist with an inquiring mind entered the backwaters of English professional football, and turned a modest, little-known team into a serious competitor in the English Premier League.

In 2005, Matthew Benham, an Oxford University physics graduate and lapsed fan of Brentford Football Club, phoned the club’s switchboard to ask if he could help the team out. Benham was using mathematical modelling to make millions of pounds from gambling on football. Brentford, which had not played in English football's top division since 1947, were lurching towards bankruptcy. But rather than just write the third-tier club a cheque to bail them out, Benham set about encouraging Brentford to operate more efficiently. Eschewing the decades-old football way of relying on the manager to make or break a team, Benham brought in quantitative analysts from his gambling operation to make better decisions on which players to sign and how to approach games tactically. One of these quantitative analysts become Brentford’s first sporting director.

In suburban west London, almost two decades after Benham called the club switchboard offering a helping hand, Brentford continue to use statistics to maximize their performance, collecting and analysing data on everything from throw-ins and corner kicks to pressing. The 2024/2025 season marks Brentford’s fourth consecutive season in the Premier League, a remarkable achievement for a club that has spent almost all of its history in levels 3 and 4 of the English football pyramid. In this presentation Alex Duff will illustrate the context to this transformation and concludes by presenting an assessment of what might lie ahead for the Brentford FC experiment.

Alex Duff - Biography

Alex Duff is an author who covered the business of sport for 15 years for Bloomberg News.

He worked as a reporter for news organisations in London, Rio de Janeiro, and Madrid, covering everything from the unorthodox business dealings of Bernie Ecclestone to the ‘Galactico’ era at Real Madrid when David Beckham arrived to propel marketing revenue.

He has written books about the family that owns the Tour de France (Le Fric, 2022) and under-the-counter deals in the football player transfer market after the global financial crisis of 2008 (Football’s Secret Trade, 2017).

His new book ‘Smart Money: The Fall and Rise of Brentford FC’ (2004) uncovers the behind-the-scenes transformation of the football club he supported for all his life and, to his astonishment, is now in the Premier League.

Event Venue

The event venue is: Lecture Room 201, Birkbeck’s 373 Euston Road facility (373 Euston Road, London, NW1 3AR).

You can register to attend the event, either in-person or on-line at Smart Money: The Fall & Rise Of Brentford FC - How Brentford reached the Premier League Using Mathematics
 
Pape is a lot higher on this than I'd assumed he'd be. Maybe the small sample size is playing a role? Have to say I'm still not completely convinced by him in this role. Long term I think he's more likely to become a double pivot DM.
Yeah it’s per 90 and he’s hardly played in the prem really so small sample size theatre,

Still, he’s confident atm and just picked up an assist vs UTD so he could really start to push on if he gets a chance.
 
Still, he’s confident atm and just picked up an assist vs UTD so he could really start to push on if he gets a chance.

Pape is not the sort of player I'd be judging on goals/assists. He'll never be putting up Kulu/Maddison numbers so what I'm looking at when I judge his performances is things like: Did he retain possession? Did he press well, did he compete well in the duels? Did he combine well with the other midfielders, did he receive it well on the turn, did he pass it cleanly and crisply?

He got his goal yesterday but the rest of his game was sub par and hence for me he's no closer to starting on Sunday.
 
Pape is not the sort of player I'd be judging on goals/assists. He'll never be putting up Kulu/Maddison numbers so what I'm looking at when I judge his performances is things like: Did he retain possession? Did he press well, did he compete well in the duels? Did he combine well with the other midfielders, did he receive it well on the turn, did he pass it cleanly and crisply?

He got his goal yesterday but the rest of his game was sub par and hence for me he's no closer to starting on Sunday.
He's a great player but I think there's a fair chance he goes down the Hojbjerg path due to a combination of ceiling and fit to Ange-ball.
 
We’ve got a problem at the back post. Almost every match an opposition player drifts into the box unmarked at the back post. Teams are looking for this. Happened with Ferencvaros offside goal, Garnacho post effort, Leicester goal…
 
Pape is not the sort of player I'd be judging on goals/assists. He'll never be putting up Kulu/Maddison numbers so what I'm looking at when I judge his performances is things like: Did he retain possession? Did he press well, did he compete well in the duels? Did he combine well with the other midfielders, did he receive it well on the turn, did he pass it cleanly and crisply?

He got his goal yesterday but the rest of his game was sub par and hence for me he's no closer to starting on Sunday.
I only saw highlights so I’ll take your word for it.

Also generally agree on what to look for in Pspe, he’s a proper box to box guy. But he’s also got to be a box crasher that scores goals in that R8 role and he’s definitely looking more productive so far this season.

Also thought he did a lot of those things you mentioned when he’s come on as a sub in the prem.
 
Good point. It looks porous but the danger is normally from the next ball back across the goal so if that's covered then the risk is low.
They feel like pretty difficult chances to convert. To my eyes at least. Not saying we want to give up 3/4 of those chances every 9 games but I’m definitely happy to see that we are giving less counter attacks and chances from playing through the press in the last few games.

You will never kill everything and every system has weak points that it needs to keep working on but I’d guess that most teams are hoping that the chances they are allowing are difficult to score, relatively.
 

Cuti and Mickey just strolling about, making it look easy!

TLDR; Our CBs stroll more than any other teams. But we sprint more and cover more distance (4th) than any other top 6 team.
 
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