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Why we can finish top 4

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awad1tc

10 games in, 9 on the trot without a loss, 6th on the table. It's been a promising start to the 15/16 season. It seems that Poch's vision for the squad is starting to gain traction and the future for Spurs is looking promising.

However, all things considered, what will these early signs of quality result in for us this year? The answer, top 4. On face value, top 4 can seem like just another over-optimistic backhand comment you'd make in a pub but not really believe. But to look into it properly let's look at the last 5 premier league seasons.

The mean record of a 4th placed side over the last 5 years is P 38 W 21 D 9 L 8 = 72 points. Looking at our fixtures for the season I have come up with this prediction:


Match Day # Opp H/A Result Points
1 MUN A L 0
2 STO H D 1
3 LCI A D 1
4 EVE H D 1
5 SUN A W 3
6 CRY H W 3
7 MCI H W 3
8 SWA A D 1
9 LIV H D 1
10 BOU A W 3
11 AVL H W 3
12 ARS A L 0
13 WHU H D 1
14 CHE H L 0
15 WBA A W 3
16 NEW H W 3
17 SOU A D 1
18 NOR H W 3
19 WAT A W 3
20 EVE H D 1
21 LEI H W 3
22 SUN H W 3
23 CRY A D 1
24 NOR A W 3
25 WAT H W 3
26 MCI A L 0
27 SWA H D 1
28 WHU A D 1
29 ARS H L 0
30 AVL A W 3
31 BOU H W 3
32 LIV A D 1
33 MUN H L 0
34 STO A W 3
35 WBA H W 3
36 CHE A L 0
37 SOU H W 3
38 NEW A W 3
P38 W 19 D 12 L 7 - Points: 69

By this estimation we will end the season with 69 points. Below the average of a 4th position finish. Alas, in the past 5 years once has a team secured 4th place on the table with 69 points, Tottenham Hostpur, in the 2011/2012 season. What is even more interesting is that this season was also the only in the past 5 years to not feature Chelsea in the top 4.

Present day, Chelsea are in a shambles. There are deep seated issues at the club with a clear disengage from player to manager. Chelsea has just successfully completed the worst title defense in Premier League history and the chances of them bouncing back to a top 4 position this season seem low.

The reason we will finish top 4 this season is not purely because we have finally found our groove, we will finish top 4 because Chelsea are shithouse... Which makes it all that much more satisfying.
 
If we do finish with 69 points (I don't think we will) I'm not sure it will be enough to do it. Everyone seems to be getting very ahead of themselves when it comes to Chelsea. Yes, there are major problems at that club, that being said, if there is one club that has the ability to bounce back and still make CL next season it's Chelsea.
 
Then we lose a game of football (which can happen) and POCH OUT rings around the forum!

As predictable as the sun coming up tomorrow

#modernlifeisrubbish
 
awad1tc said:
10 games in, 9 on the trot without a loss, 6th on the table. It's been a promising start to the 15/16 season. It seems that Poch's vision for the squad is starting to gain traction and the future for Spurs is looking promising.

However, all things considered, what will these early signs of quality result in for us this year? The answer, top 4. On face value, top 4 can seem like just another over-optimistic backhand comment you'd make in a pub but not really believe. But to look into it properly let's look at the last 5 premier league seasons.

The mean record of a 4th placed side over the last 5 years is P 38 W 21 D 9 L 8 = 72 points. Looking at our fixtures for the season I have come up with this prediction:


Match Day # Opp H/A Result Points
1 MUN A L 0
2 STO H D 1
3 LCI A D 1
4 EVE H D 1
5 SUN A W 3
6 CRY H W 3
7 MCI H W 3
8 SWA A D 1
9 LIV H D 1
10 BOU A W 3
11 AVL H W 3
12 ARS A L 0
13 WHU H D 1
14 CHE H L 0
15 WBA A W 3
16 NEW H W 3
17 SOU A D 1
18 NOR H W 3
19 WAT A W 3
20 EVE H D 1
21 LEI H W 3
22 SUN H W 3
23 CRY A D 1
24 NOR A W 3
25 WAT H W 3
26 MCI A L 0
27 SWA H D 1
28 WHU A D 1
29 ARS H L 0
30 AVL A W 3
31 BOU H W 3
32 LIV A D 1
33 MUN H L 0
34 STO A W 3
35 WBA H W 3
36 CHE A L 0
37 SOU H W 3
38 NEW A W 3
P38 W 19 D 12 L 7 - Points: 69

By this estimation we will end the season with 69 points. Below the average of a 4th position finish. Alas, in the past 5 years once has a team secured 4th place on the table with 69 points, Tottenham Hostpur, in the 2011/2012 season. What is even more interesting is that this season was also the only in the past 5 years to not feature Chelsea in the top 4.

Present day, Chelsea are in a shambles. There are deep seated issues at the club with a clear disengage from player to manager. Chelsea has just successfully completed the worst title defense in Premier League history and the chances of them bouncing back to a top 4 position this season seem low.

The reason we will finish top 4 this season is not purely because we have finally found our groove, we will finish top 4 because Chelsea are shithouse... Which makes it all that much more satisfying.
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You have us losing to only the ''Sky 4''. We will 100% lose to a team ''below'' us this season. Football doesn't work like that.
 
SchmoodSpur said:
You have us losing to only the ''Sky 4''. We will 100% lose to a team ''below'' us this season. Football doesn't work like that.
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Of course not but the idea is to put in the results you'd expect and then hope freak results such as a win against City will balance out the inevitable losses against teams we should beat. It's more just to demonstrate what can be achieved with an attainable seasonal performance from us if Chelsea continue the way they are going.
 
Even with Chelsea currently in a massive slump, you can't just overlook how other teams have been stepping up as well, West Ham being a great example. The one thing that bodes well is that the team have gone marching on without a hitch even with injuries to several key players. That suggests that there is true quality in the squad depth. We'll see how the table looks in the spring, when the early season form pretenders will be found out. I like our chances but I have no doubt there will be others neck and neck with us for that 4th spot.

But like others have said before, wtf are we doing dropping points in the Europa League group stages? Let's get that sorted first eh..
 
We are far more predictable than we used to be. For the first time in a long time we have a team and that means its more about us than it is about the opposition.
I think we will get something around 70 points, probably 71, whether that will be enough or not will be a close run thing. If we are serious about capitalizing on where we are then come January we have to pay for a number 9. It will cost us a lot but then it could well give us another 5 points come the end of the season and then it pays for itself. I am not holding my breath though.

Woolwich, City and ManU look strong to finish top 3. Probably in that order, though it will be very close at the top I think. Chelsea keep on loosing. You'd think that they must surely improve at some point but the league is harder than ever and it'll be hard for them to get excitted about hopefully scraping fourth. They are only 6 points behind us though, and that makes our game against them very important. If they win...but if we win or deny them an advantage over us then that really puts us in a strong position.
West Ham haven't got the players to maintain their good start.
Liverpool should get better but they really don't have a strong squad. If Klopp is as good as he may well be and if he is backed in January, which I think he will be, then they will be somewhere top 6, but again I don't think they will have enough.
We are in a great situation, as you point out. Going back to what I said originally, we are strong as a team, and are very difficult to beat now, have much improved consistancy and are likely to bounce back from defeats if they come. I think a proper number 9 could make all the difference though.
 
Sons of Thunder said:
Even with Chelsea currently in a massive slump, you can't just overlook how other teams have been stepping up as well, West Ham being a great example. The one thing that bodes well is that the team have gone marching on without a hitch even with injuries to several key players. That suggests that there is true quality in the squad depth. We'll see how the table looks in the spring, when the early season form pretenders will be found out. I like our chances but I have no doubt there will be others neck and neck with us for that 4th spot.

But like others have said before, wtf are we doing dropping points in the Europa League group stages? Let's get that sorted first eh..
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Agreed. You'd think the West Ham bubble will burst at some point, however if we are competing with the likes of West Ham, Leicester, Palace, Everton for a top 4 spot, my money would be on us. Our depth through midfield is a massive X Factor. As far as the Anderlecht game goes I'll be wanting to see a strong response at the Lane, It'll be interesting to see how strongly the players believe they can go all the way in Europa.
 
Here's my results table for the rest of the season:

1 MUN A L 0
2 STO H D 1
3 LCI A D 1
4 EVE H D 1
5 SUN A W 3
6 CRY H W 3
7 MCI H W 3
8 SWA A D 1
9 LIV H D 1
10 BOU A W 3
11 AVL H W 3
12 ARS A W 3
13 WHU H W 3
14 CHE H W 3
15 WBA A W 3
16 NEW H W 3
17 SOU A W 3
18 NOR H W 3
19 WAT A W 3
20 EVE H W 3
21 LEI H W 3
22 SUN H W 3
23 CRY A W 3
24 NOR A W 3
25 WAT H W 3
26 MCI A W 3
27 SWA H W 3
28 WHU A W 3
29 ARS H W 3
30 AVL A W 3
31 BOU H W 3
32 LIV A W 3
33 MUN H W 3
34 STO A W 3
35 WBA H W 3
36 CHE A W 3
37 SOU H W 3
38 NEW A W 3
P38 W 32 D 5 L 1 - Points: 101

Kane to break 40 league goals.
:dembelefingers:
 
So long as we're playing pretend:

11 AVL H W 3 8-0
12 ARS A W 3 1-4
13 WHU H W 3 3-1
14 CHE H W 3 6-0
15 WBA A W 3 0-1
16 NEW H W 3 6-0
17 SOU A W 3 1-2
18 NOR H W 3 4-0
19 WAT A W 3 0-2
20 EVE H W 3 2-0
21 LEI H W 3 2-0
22 SUN H W 3 3-0
23 CRY A W 3 0-1
24 NOR A W 3 0-3
25 WAT H W 3 2-0
26 MCI A W 3 1-2
27 SWA H W 3 2-0
28 WHU A W 3 1-2
29 ARS H W 3 3-1
30 AVL A W 3 0-4
31 BOU H W 3 3-0
32 LIV A W 3 1-3
33 MUN H W 3 2-0
34 STO A W 3 0-2
35 WBA H W 3 2-0
36 CHE A W 3 0-3
37 SOU H W 3 2-0
38 NEW A W 3 1-6

85 goals + 16 = 101 goals. Boom.

But seriously, this thread has little to no logic behind it.
 
You've got us to lose to Woolwich twice and draw with Spam twice..

200.gif
 
Why can't people just enjoy watching this team without heaping pressure on them and increasing the fan expectations? The majority of fans expected finishing between 5th & 7th this season (some even worse) 3/4 of the season still left to play so just enjoy it.

The brainwashing by media on fans about top 4 is the curse of the modern day game, it is why 10,000 fans don't bother to turn out to a home EL game and then fucking moan when they can't get a cup final ticket because they don't have enough LP's.

Top four is our everything, fuck off!
 
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