Hate to tempt fate by jumping the gun and discussing this one - but fuck it, they play before we do so there's no fun waiting until we see if we fuck up against Croatia.
Belgium are scary in the counter, but don't have the same pace that France do (still pacey, mind). I think Belgium's defending has been lucky, and if they beat France will have to be lucky once more.
So I think you might be right, in that Belgium would be the better of the two to play.