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Premier League tactical notebook: Five early-season data trends

We're just a month into the 2025-26 campaign but, from a drop in offsides to a greater emphasis on set pieces, some patterns have emerged
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Premier League tactical notebook: Five early-season data trends​


Summarise

Mark Carey
We are precisely 13.16 per cent of the way through the 2025-26 Premier League campaign, meaning any conclusions on player or team performance are far from concrete at this stage.

There is still so much football to be played, but a few early-season quirks have begun to take shape. Long throws into the penalty box are back, direct play is in vogue again, and we are increasingly seeing teams engage in rugby-style kick-offs to gain territory.

These trends might become less or more pronounced in the coming weeks but, in the meantime, allow The Athletic to share some other patterns that we have spotted. Here are five themes from the opening five games across the division — let’s dive in.

Welcome to the Premier League​

The Athletic’s Michael Cox recently analysed the disjointed performances we have seen from many teams early this season as they look to bed in their new signings, lots of whom didn’t arrive until after the games had begun to count.

Among the Premier League’s top sides, none of Liverpool, Woolwich, Chelsea, Newcastle or Manchester United has been free-flowing going forward, but all five are looking to assimilate a new front line following a busy summer of spending.

With the transfer window now closed until January, it is worth highlighting just how much turnover there has been among the Premier League sides during the main window of the year compared with previous years.

Among the 17 non-promoted teams within each respective campaign, 2025-26 has seen 85 players make their debut within the first five games. Those could be new signings or an initial senior appearance given to a player from the club’s academy.

For context, that figure edges ahead of each of the past six years.

pl_new_signing_debut_five_games.png


There was a notable jump in debuts between 2022 and 2023, most likely due to the introduction of the five-substitutions-per-game rule, which saw clubs add (and use) more options within their squad.

Still, the numbers match what the eyes can see this season. Performances might appear fragmented among some teams, but managers are integrating new players at a higher rate than we have seen in recent campaigns.

Are players looking along the line more often?​

Whatever your opinion on VAR, we are seeing improvements in how it is being used. Questionable tackles remain subjective, but offside calls are binary — you are either off or you’re not.

Semi-automated offside technology (SAOT) has been rolled out in the Premier League over the past five months, using skeletal tracking data to add a greater degree of accuracy to tight decisions.

Knowledge of SAOT’s existence appears to have impacted player behaviour, with a notable drop in offside calls after five games compared with previous campaigns at the same stage of a season.

pl_offsides_five_games.png


Realising that the tiniest of margins will be picked up on by the technology, perhaps players are being more intelligent with their runs from deeper positions.

Alternatively, there might be less inclination — or opportunity — to play those balls in behind in the first place. This season has seen 59 through balls completed so far, which is the lowest figure for them at the same stage of a campaign since 2021-22.

Like the introduction of the back-pass rule in 1992 or the goal-kick rule change in 2019-20, maybe a change to the game’s officiating technology might influence the tactical decisions being made on the pitch.

Are Aston Villa too predictable?​

Things have not gone to plan for Villa in the opening weeks.

Three points, no wins and only one goal scored is a red flag for any team after five games — especially for one with aspirations to return to the Champions League after reaching its quarter-finals last season but missing out on qualification on the domestic campaign’s final day. Unai Emery’s side are already falling behind in the race.

The Spaniard’s teams have rarely been overly expansive in their structure, often having a midfield four with narrow No 10s and full-backs tasked with offering width. So far this season, that width has continued to come from left-back Lucas Digne, with 38 per cent of Villa’s attacking touches coming down their left third of the pitch.

Notably, 31 per cent of those touches are coming through the middle third, which is currently the highest share since 2018-19. It is also a greater percentage than any other Premier League club over the first month.

Premier-League_attacking_thirds.png


Attacking through the heart of the pitch is not necessarily a bad thing, but knowing Villa’s current issues going forward, there is evidence to suggest they have become a little too easy for opponents to read.

John McGinn has started many of these games on the right wing, but the Scotland international is inclined to come inside from there, meaning Villa’s attack becomes far too narrow — or at best, skewed towards one flank.

The deadline-day arrivals of loanees Harvey Elliott and Jadon Sancho might bring more dynamism once they gel with their new colleagues, but the early signs suggest Emery’s core task will be to curate more balance to Villa’s attack.

Newcastle’s outswingers are the league’s outliers​

Things are a little calmer at St James’ Park since the transfer window closed three weeks ago.

We can now focus solely on matters on the pitch, and there is a very specific phase of play on which Eddie Howe’s men stand out from the pack. At a time when in-swinging corners are the predominant delivery method in the Premier League, no side has taken more out-swingers this season than Newcastle.

This is specific to their right-sided corners, and is largely born of circumstances that date back to last season. Left-back Lewis Hall gained his first league start of the season against Bournemouth on Sunday but is still working his way back from a long-term foot injury — with the right-footed Tino Livramento having deputised excellently on the left side of defence in his absence.

That means that Newcastle simply do not have a natural left-footer to whip those crosses under the crossbar from the right side of the pitch, with Kieran Trippier having been the primary taker from both sides for much of this season.

Mapping Newcastle’s corner end-locations since last season shows just how different their approach has been in this one — or rather, forced to be — when comparing their left and right sides.

Newcastle_corners.png


The towering presence of new signing Nick Woltemade (6ft 6in/198cm) joins Dan Burn (6ft 7in), Sven Botman (6ft 4in) and Fabian Schar (6ft 1in) as the key targets for those deliveries, often pulling away from goal to gain first contact when the ball is played from the right side.

Just five goals from corners since the start of last season is not the strongest return from Howe’s side, but with Hall back in the team, it looks like their delivery will benefit from greater unpredictability in the coming weeks.

Set pieces are so back​

Set pieces remain a strong topic of conversation, dominating the opening weeks of the season as teams look to show off their shiny, new choreographed routines.

A dig into the early numbers shows just how dominant set pieces have been on the wider goalscoring landscape so far, with 35 per cent of the 2025-26 Premier League’s total goals coming from dead-ball situations (including penalties).

As shown in the graphic below, that is a big jump from recent years at the same stage of a season.

pl_sp_share_five_games.png


There have been some delightful direct free-kicks within that, with Liverpool’s Dominik Szoboszlai and Anton Stach of Leeds United firing two beautiful efforts into the top corner. A tally of 22 corner goals is a three-season high for this point of the campaign, but the headline act of set-piece quirks is undoubtedly the long throws into the penalty area.

After five games, 164 throw-ins from within the final third have targeted the penalty box — which is an astonishing increase on previous years. For context, no complete campaign has reached three figures at this stage since 2018-19.

It has been a well-discussed theme of the season so far, but the numbers highlight just how prominent set pieces have been in these early rounds.

Again, some of these trends might fall away as the campaign gets fully into its stride, but there appears to be a paradigm shift occurring — and there is plenty of room for more weird and wonderful quirks as the weeks go by.

(Top photos: Getty Images)
 
bus-conductor said:
At best. Some are mid/low.

Time will tell. I’m happy to see what happens, I just can’t see great things right now, and didn’t at Brentford. Guy talks intelligently, but he does some not so intelligent things at times.
Click to expand...
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Not sure a perfect manager exists though. I agree, I’m not blown away by anything we are doing tactically but at least I feel like we can get results on bad days. After that he should buy himself some time to implement some more exciting ideas.
 
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