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Mostly this.
While a title challenge is not impossible, it would be highly, highly improbable. We're playing like a Champion's League worthy team, and if we can keep it up, I think we'll finish in the top 4. A little more depth to the squad in key areas and we'd stand a better chance.
We ain't going to win the league.
We may not even qualify for top 4, but what with Chavs, that is the moe realistic. If, like Leicester, Spam and Palace, we didn't have the Europa League I feel we may have fared a little better.
Thursday and Sunday with our young squad will be too much imo.
I mean, we played virtually the same side in 3 games over 6 days. That cannot continue without fatigue. No matter how fit.
Although we showed fantastic levels of endurance and commitment , I also think we benefitted from staying in the capital the last 3 games. We have to go to Azerbaijan and will also travel in the KO stages, playing two more games in Feb.. and March April (depending if we progress)
If we want to have any chance of winning the EL, we will have to play our strongest side.
Let's just enjoy the ride. We are going in the right direction and the mentality is right. I just feel that we just lack some quality in depth.
We have to realise that this is a work in progress. Most of our squad are young, relative newcomers to the Pl and still learning. I feel there is something about this squad that I haven't seen for a long while regarding team ethic/togetherness, but we have to accept that mistakes will happen.
I would be over the moon if we qualified for the CL. It would be a massive achievement for this squad. There is no doubt they have the belief. I feel it's wrong to heap expectation on them though.
So, let's not get too pissed if we don't eh.
I mean the majority of the posters on here were writing us off at the start of the season.
We may not even qualify for top 4, but what with Chavs, that is the moe realistic. If, like Leicester, Spam and Palace, we didn't have the Europa League I feel we may have fared a little better.
Thursday and Sunday with our young squad will be too much imo.
I mean, we played virtually the same side in 3 games over 6 days. That cannot continue without fatigue. No matter how fit.
Although we showed fantastic levels of endurance and commitment , I also think we benefitted from staying in the capital the last 3 games. We have to go to Azerbaijan and will also travel in the KO stages, playing two more games in Feb.. and March April (depending if we progress)
If we want to have any chance of winning the EL, we will have to play our strongest side.
Let's just enjoy the ride. We are going in the right direction and the mentality is right. I just feel that we just lack some quality in depth.
We have to realise that this is a work in progress. Most of our squad are young, relative newcomers to the Pl and still learning. I feel there is something about this squad that I haven't seen for a long while regarding team ethic/togetherness, but we have to accept that mistakes will happen.
I would be over the moon if we qualified for the CL. It would be a massive achievement for this squad. There is no doubt they have the belief. I feel it's wrong to heap expectation on them though.
So, let's not get too pissed if we don't eh.
I mean the majority of the posters on here were writing us off at the start of the season.
Oh, l see.
It's pretty much a four year plan, which we're in year two of. That's why I asked the 3 year question.
14/15 Poch's first season - see what we've got, start changes. Finish 5th.
15/16 Second season - make changes, let them bed in, see early results. Finish 4th.
16/17 Third season - consistency in results, winning streaks, fluent play. Finish 3rd.
17/18 Fourth season - Best player sold. Bad start. Sack the manager. Finish 6th.
14/15 Poch's first season - see what we've got, start changes. Finish 5th.
15/16 Second season - make changes, let them bed in, see early results. Finish 4th.
16/17 Third season - consistency in results, winning streaks, fluent play. Finish 3rd.
17/18 Fourth season - Best player sold. Bad start. Sack the manager. Finish 6th.
Wait. Every season I say we'll win the league and either the FA Cup or the UEFA cup .... Does this make me bad?
Have there been any decent strength of schedule analyses written lately?
I haven't seen one written. Michael Caley builds a strength-of-schedule factor into his models, but you could probably argue endlessly over strength anticipated at the start of the year, vs how it has turned out to date.
Oh, absolutely. Nobody could have seen Chelsea.
I just looked up his last CFC post from Oct. 19, and it's encouraging. For expected goals and expected goals conceded, we're third and second in the league, respectively.
His projected league table is still heavily seeded with the prior years' league performance - in which our numbers blew - because the season hasn't run for long enough to project finishes on this season's results alone, but yeah according to expected goals and goals conceded it looks like we've got an amazing shot at 3rd or even 2nd in the league!
Oh, absolutely. Nobody could have seen Chelsea.
I just looked up his last CFC post from Oct. 19, and it's encouraging. For expected goals and expected goals conceded, we're third and second in the league, respectively.
His projected league table is still heavily seeded with the prior years' league performance - in which our numbers blew - because the season hasn't run for long enough to project finishes on this season's results alone, but yeah according to expected goals and goals conceded it looks like we've got an amazing shot at 3rd or even 2nd in the league!
And Newcastle will be relegated?
We can only hope.
I'm not saying it's not possible, rather that fans get carried away with themselves, which in turn builds up expectation, and that makes for more disappointment when it fails to happen (as is the most likely outcome).
He drops I think 9% of last years numbers each week as he adds in this years, so I think his model is now 60% this year's numbers.Oh, absolutely. Nobody could have seen Chelsea.
I just looked up his last CFC post from Oct. 19, and it's encouraging. For expected goals and expected goals conceded, we're third and second in the league, respectively.
His projected league table is still heavily seeded with the prior years' league performance - in which our numbers blew - because the season hasn't run for long enough to project finishes on this season's results alone, but yeah according to expected goals and goals conceded it looks like we've got an amazing shot at 3rd or even 2nd in the league!
We're a pretty mind-blowing turn-around, year-over-year, but although the scale of change is shocking, there's only a 5-6 year sample to work with. A "once every 20 years" change would look insane right now, as its unprecedented. But it may not be that unprecedented if we had more years to look back at.
There's a very high likelihood the whole of the north east will be relegated. They're kind of in a competition to see which team can be worse.
This is going to sound overly pessimistic, but I think that I would be okay with finishing 5th. I say that because I think that it literally only takes Kane being injured for everyone to go back to saying that there's no way we break top 4 and I would be inclined to agree. Top 4 this season would be absolutely incredible, but at the end of the day I would be overjoyed with 5th and the FA Cup.
I don't like the idea of basing more than half of this years prediction on last year. Last years team is completely different from this years and you only have to look at the ins and outs to see that.
Until you have present data, you need to project using past data. I can understand why he does it. Right now, he's using less than 50% of last year's data vs this, I think.
So he revises it each week till the end of the season when his results match the actual results ermmmm
Not really, no. He adds in the extra data. Given that what he's publishing is what his model says is the most probably result, based on the expected goals, not the actual table based on the actual results, the numbers can be quite different. By expected goals, last year we should have been 10th...