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Player Dejan Kulusevski

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Richard Arlison said:
Man said 4 expected

:harrylol:


Knob.
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Yep, xA is extremely useful at gauging a players actual creativity. Assists = influenced by whether teammates are being clinical or not so not a good stat, totally influenced by others. If I create 3 chances for teammates but they score 10 from my passes because Messi happens to be at the end of them, that doesn't make me ultra creative.

But I'm sorry the actual facts don't live up to your perception of this player as one of the top talents in Europe or w/e.
 
Raumdeuterz said:
Yep, xA is extremely useful at gauging a players actual creativity. Assists = influenced by whether teammates are being clinical or not so not a good stat, totally influenced by others. If I create 3 chances for teammates but they score 10 from my passes because Messi happens to be at the end of them, that doesn't make me ultra creative.

But I'm sorry the actual facts don't live up to your perception of this player as one of the top talents in Europe or w/e.
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What is the formula to calculate expected assists?
 
Richard Arlison said:
What is the formula to calculate expected assists?
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'Stats Perform’s expected assists (xA) model measures the likelihood that a given pass will become a goal assist. The model rewards players who pass into dangerous areas, regardless of whether the receiver takes a shot or not. xA is measured on a scale between zero and one, where zero represents a pass that will never result in an assist and one represents a pass that the receiver would be expected to score from every single time.'

Like all stats, its not perfect, but its a lot more useful than just counting assists because assists are so often completely misleading and down to external factors, like playing with Son who is an incredible finisher and will make you look uber creative compared to say playing with Darwin Nunez.
 
Raumdeuterz said:
Yep, xA is extremely useful at gauging a players actual creativity. Assists = influenced by whether teammates are being clinical or not so not a good stat, totally influenced by others. If I create 3 chances for teammates but they score 10 from my passes because Messi happens to be at the end of them, that doesn't make me ultra creative.

But I'm sorry the actual facts don't live up to your perception of this player as one of the top talents in Europe or w/e.
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His xa is pretty good really, .23 per90 mins. Same give or take a single digit as Odegaard, Foden, Mitoma, Martinelli, Mahrez. Grealish, Trent, Bruno F at .27 ... then you have KDB the anomaly at .54.

It's his goal threat that frustrates me. He has a decent whipped shot to the far corner, powered a good one near post vs Leeds last season, but I never feel that he's very likely to score when I watch us play. I think at the price he is, it's a fairly sensible transfer to finalize. But I don't see him as all that suitable to playing anywhere but RW.. and I'd want a quicker alternate for him in the squad, not Gil or Rich
 
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Raumdeuterz said:
'Stats Perform’s expected assists (xA) model measures the likelihood that a given pass will become a goal assist. The model rewards players who pass into dangerous areas, regardless of whether the receiver takes a shot or not. xA is measured on a scale between zero and one, where zero represents a pass that will never result in an assist and one represents a pass that the receiver would be expected to score from every single time.'

Like all stats, its not perfect, but its a lot more useful than just counting assists because assists are so often completely misleading and down to external factors, like playing with Son who is an incredible finisher and will make you look uber creative compared to say playing with Darwin Nunez.
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What’s the formula that it uses to measure that likelihood?

I didn’t ask you to google the definition of the metric.

I’m curious to see if you understand these analytics that you confidently quote as “The Facts”.
 
Doc said:
His xa is pretty good really, .23 per90 mins. Same give or take a single digit as Odegaard, Foden, Mitoma, Martinelli, Mahrez. Grealish, Trent, Bruno F at .27 ... then you have KDB the anomaly at .54.

It's his goal threat that frustrates me. He has a decent whipped shot to the far corner, powered a good one near post vs Leeds last season, but I never feel that he's very likely to score when I watch us play. I think at the price he is, it's a fairly sensible transfer to finalize. But I don't see him as all that suitable to playing anywhere but RW.. and I'd want a quicker alternate fort him in the squad, not Gil or Rich
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He's been frustratingly shot-shy this year......

I wonder if Conte had been discouraging them like he had with Sonny?


More and more, as the season went on it felt like we were all but exclusively geared towards scoring from crosses....... Davichi Moyesini.
 
I find xA more useful than xG for a particular player.

A player has control over goals scored because he’s the one shooting, making goals more telling than xG.

A player does not have control over a teammate finishing a chance. But he does have control over the quality of shot which is what xA measures. It’s not perfect but it’s useful.
 
Richard Arlison said:
What’s the formula that it uses to measure that likelihood?

I didn’t ask you to google the definition of the metric.

I’m curious to see if you understand these analytics that you confidently quote as “The Facts”.
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It's the most self-explanatory thing in the world. I don't know how you want me to break it down for you, I gave you the google definition because it can't summarise it any more clearly.

Who said anything about facts, anyway? It's a metric I use/find useful. You don't have to, but in the same way I won't be taking assists at face value because it relies on external factors that the player isn't responsible for.

xA is purely the xG created for others, it ain't rocket science.
 
Doc said:
His xa is pretty good really, .23 per90 mins. Same give or take a single digit as Odegaard, Foden, Mitoma, Martinelli, Mahrez. Grealish, Trent, Bruno F at .27 ... then you have KDB the anomaly at .54.

It's his goal threat that frustrates me. He has a decent whipped shot to the far corner, powered a good one near post vs Leeds last season, but I never feel that he's very likely to score when I watch us play. I think at the price he is, it's a fairly sensible transfer to finalize. But I don't see him as all that suitable to playing anywhere but RW.. and I'd want a quicker alternate for him in the squad, not Gil or Rich
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It's definitely not bad but he's an ultra creation focused player and unlike many on that list I don't view him as a particularly effective press-resistant ball carrier or goalscorer. Grealish's numbers are OK at best this season but he's found his role as a link-man who progresses play for Pep and never loses possession. Kulu loses it plenty.

He's obviously got quality but I do feel like defenders feel comfortable against him now, and that's really fucking bad.
 
Raumdeuterz said:
Like all stats, its not perfect, but its a lot more useful than just counting assists because assists are so often completely misleading and down to external factors, like playing with Son who is an incredible finisher and will make you look uber creative compared to say playing with Darwin Nunez.
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Leave Darwin alone, Deuterz!!!!
iu


And you're on your own as it seems the experts have popped in...and I know when I'm outta my league. I should stay and learn but, you know...
 
Doc said:
His xa is pretty good really, .23 per90 mins. Same give or take a single digit as Odegaard, Foden, Mitoma, Martinelli, Mahrez. Grealish, Trent, Bruno F at .27 ... then you have KDB the anomaly at .54.

It's his goal threat that frustrates me. He has a decent whipped shot to the far corner, powered a good one near post vs Leeds last season, but I never feel that he's very likely to score when I watch us play. I think at the price he is, it's a fairly sensible transfer to finalize. But I don't see him as all that suitable to playing anywhere but RW.. and I'd want a quicker alternate for him in the squad, not Gil or Rich
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He also doesn't take set pieces. But that and a lack of goal threat are the concerns. Not sure there are nailed on alternatives for the money though.
 
Richard Arlison said:
What’s the formula that it uses to measure that likelihood?

I didn’t ask you to google the definition of the metric.

I’m curious to see if you understand these analytics that you confidently quote as “The Facts”.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

xA is actually a pretty decent stat and a much better stat than assist itself to see how creative a player is. It adds up the quality of chances created by the player and not how good the goalscorer was .

Imagine passing it to Son who goes past 7 players and scores and the teammate who passed it to Son 30 seconds ago gets the assist without really doing anything great.
 
iz futbal said:
xA is actually a pretty decent stat and a much better stat than assist itself to see how creative a player is. It adds up the quality of chances created by the player and not how good the goalscorer was .

Imagine passing it to Son who goes past 7 players and scores and the teammate who passed it to Son 30 seconds ago gets the assist without really doing anything great.
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Deuterz Deuterz - Curious; What were his X-A vs actual A last season then?
 
Doc said:
His xa is pretty good really, .23 per90 mins. Same give or take a single digit as Odegaard, Foden, Mitoma, Martinelli, Mahrez. Grealish, Trent, Bruno F at .27 ... then you have KDB the anomaly at .54.

It's his goal threat that frustrates me. He has a decent whipped shot to the far corner, powered a good one near post vs Leeds last season, but I never feel that he's very likely to score when I watch us play. I think at the price he is, it's a fairly sensible transfer to finalize. But I don't see him as all that suitable to playing anywhere but RW.. and I'd want a quicker alternate for him in the squad, not Gil or Rich
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His best position would be centrally behind a striker in a 4-2-3-1 or in behind two strikers in a 3-5-2. I think the game would be more open for him and would find players making runs in behind. He’d also be bigger goal threat from central.
 
iz futbal said:
xA is actually a pretty decent stat and a much better stat than assist itself to see how creative a player is. It adds up the quality of chances created by the player and not how good the goalscorer was .
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Yeah xA seems more theoretically robust than xG really, all else being equal.

The other thing about Kulusevski is that he does a ton of defensive work so Kane and especially Son don't have to.
 
FightingIllini said:
The other thing about Kulusevski is that he does a ton of defensive work so Kane and especially Son don't have to.
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This is perfect then because Porro is shit defensively but can attack and Kulu can't bet past an OAP with a Zimmer frame but "does a tone of defensive work"...mostly because he can't get forward fast enough to join attacks, probably...

...we should switch 'em and that should cure all our ills. I'm here all week if you need anymore solutions from a solutions guy.
 
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