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Transfers January Transfer Thread 2024

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The depreciation of players' value throughout their contract is nowhere near as universally straightline as you suggest, Harry Kane being a case in point.

Agreed, it is a huge simplification.

But bringing Kane into the discussion is totally pointless. Harry Kane is unique player.
There is no such player and there haven't been such player in world football in at least 15 years. He is one of the best strikers in the game.

While PEH is "a midfielder" - likes that you can find tens and tens in top leagues.

PEH is a commodity who can be easily replaced by large number of other alternatives, so his value drops much faster.
BUT there are not "tens" of his quality levels of players available in the January window. That is exactly why we should sell him now.
In summer he is "one in a hundred", right now there is PEH, Phillips ... and that is all I can remember now, who clubs are willing to offload. While there is large number of clubs unhappy with their current options / fighting to survive in top leagues who could use him.

So I stand by what I said - selling him right now could result in 18-25 mil EUR. If he goes in the summer, we get 15 mil EUR max.
 
Agreed, it is a huge simplification.

But bringing Kane into the discussion is totally pointless. Harry Kane is unique player.
There is no such player and there haven't been such player in world football in at least 15 years. He is one of the best strikers in the game.

While PEH is "a midfielder" - likes that you can find tens and tens in top leagues.

PEH is a commodity who can be easily replaced by large number of other alternatives, so his value drops much faster.
BUT there are not "tens" of his quality levels of players available in the January window. That is exactly why we should sell him now.
In summer he is "one in a hundred", right now there is PEH, Phillips ... and that is all I can remember now, who clubs are willing to offload. While there is large number of clubs unhappy with their current options / fighting to survive in top leagues who could use him.

So I stand by what I said - selling him right now could result in 18-25 mil EUR. If he goes in the summer, we get 15 mil EUR max.
Everything you said makes sense. Hadn’t thought about this since the summer but given that he’s reportedly unhappy about lack of playing time, I’m fairly annoyed at PEH for turning down a move to Fulham’s in the summer - given their 25M bid.

Why did he turn down the move? He would have been a nailed on starter and they’re in the same city - I’m assuming they were willing to pay him the 100K/week that he’s on with us since Fulham pay that much to Jimenez and nearly that much to Willian and Leno.

We could have really used the 25M and from here on out with 18 months left in his contract - we’re going to get mostly lowball bids from European clubs with no money.

I’m fine to sell at the END of this window - we’ve got enuf cover at the 6 with Biss, Benta and Skipp and at the 8 with Sarr, GLC, Benta even Kulu.
 
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Everything you said makes sense. Hadn’t thought about this since the summer but given that he’s reportedly unhappy about lack of playing time, I’m fairly annoyed at PEH for turning down a move to Fulham’s in the summer - given their 25M bid.

Why did he turn down the move? He would have been a nailed on starter and they’re in the same city - I’m assuming they were willing to pay him the 100K/week that he’s on with us since Fulham pay that much to Jimenez and nearly that much to Willian and Leno.

We could have really used the 25M and from here on out with 18 months left in his contract - we’re going to get mostly lowball bids from European clubs with no money.

I’m fine to sell at the END of this window - we’ve got enuf cover at the 6 with Biss, Benta and Skipp and at the 8 with Sarr, GLC, Benta even Kulu.

To me, it does not make full sense from Fulham to offer 25 mil for him if they did not sold Palinha.

Well, I obviously cannot say that the scenario you presented (they offered; PEH turned option down), cause all we can do is guesswork... but it would make more sense to me that Fulham withdrew the offer once Palinha deal did not go through?
 
Never said he won the WC. was wrong about the contract.

right about everything else.

PEH most likely leaves in Janary. GLC most likely stays.

We would and should take less than 30m for PEH. We wouldn't and shouldn't take less than 30m for GLC.

Yes, the WC thing was not aimed at you personally. It was just mentioned on the same page.

I agree that most likely outcome is that PEH leaves and GLC stays.

But I disagree on reasoning. I say the reason is simple - PEH has takers, but no one wants GLC.

I am sad that we could not ever know the truth. Cause we do not see the offers that Levy receives. Nor we know what kind of valuation GLC has in Levy's head. There is just no way of knowing either.

But GLC is not even close to being worth 30 million, and if anyone would come in and offered 20 mil for him, I am absolutely convinced Levy would take it without even second of thinking. People who are in charge of actually spending money are not as stupid as just to watch the last game. You are still totally ignoring the fact that GLC has not been picked to play 77% (!!!) of all EPL minutes. He is on very deep end of a bench. If he (at soon 28!; on significant salary AND 18 months on conract) is worth 30 mil in your eyes, then players like Kulusevski should be like 150 mil?
 
01c13394-a7de-4980-af48-02ea43e1beb1_free-agents.jpg

The free agents every club want to sign in 2024​

From Kylian Mbappe to Luka Modric and Toni Kroos, there are some big names available for Premier League clubs to sign for free this month, but there are also a lot who could be on their way out.

By Jack Austin

2nd Jan 2024, 09:57 AM
2024 has arrived, and with it comes a fresh dose of chaos in the form of the January transfer window.
It’s usually a period where there are few big deals done, with clubs more focused on loan deals or outgoings of unused players during this period.
However, with clubs looking to become ever more thrifty under the watchful eyes of Financial Fair Play enforcers, the free agency market is one that most will be perusing through.
Premier League, LALIGA, WSL and more. The world's best football is on Optus Sport. Sign up here.
There are a huge number of players who will be out of contract at their current club come June 30 but January 1 is an important date, as it is the date where clubs can begin negotiating with these soon-to-be out-of-contract stars.
However, under English FA laws, players can’t negotiate with or sign a pre-contract agreement with a team within the same league – so a player currently at a Premier League club cannot sign a pre-contract agreement with another Premier League club. They can only open talks a month before their contract expires.
The rule is there in a bid to avoid conflicts of interest in the event a player may face their future club before leaving their current one.
Premier League clubs are, however, able to sign pre-contract agreements with players from teams in other leagues.
Here’s who’s currently available as a free agent in come June 30…
(Note: Some players in this list have options in their contracts for an additional year that have not yet been triggered)

Jorginho (Woolwich)
Mohamed Elneny (Woolwich)
Bertrand Traore (Aston Villa)
Ryan Christie (Bournemouth)
Lloyd Kelly (Bournemouth)
Darren Randolph (Bournemouth)
Ryan Fredericks (Bournemouth)
Emiliano Marcondes (Bournemouth)
Adam Smith (Bournemouth)
Ben Mee (Brentford)
Danny Welbeck (Brighton)
Adam Lallana (Brighton)
James Milner (Brighton)
Josh Brownhill (Burnley)
Jay Rodriguez (Burnley)
Jack Cork (Burnley)
Charlie Taylor (Burnley)
Johann Berg Gudmundsson (Burnley)
Thiago Silva (Chelsea)
Nathaniel Clyne (Crystal Palace)
Will Hughes (Crystal Palace)
Joel Ward (Crystal Palace)
Nathan Ferguson (Crystal Palace)
Jairo Riedewald (Crystal Palace)
James Tomkins (Crystal Palace)
Remi Matthews (Crystal Palace)
Idrissa Gueye (Everton)
Seamus Coleman (Everton)
Dele Alli (Everton)

Willian (Fulham)
Tosin Adarabioyo (Fulham)
Kenny Tete (Fulham)
Joel Matip (Liverpool)
Adrian (Liverpool)
Raphael Varane (Manchester United)
Anthony Martial (Manchester United)
Aaron Wan-Bissaka (Manchester United)
Jonny Evans (Manchester United)
Fabian Schar (Newcastle United)
Serge Aurier (Nottingham Forest)
Chris Wood (Nottingham Forest)
Ethan Horvath (Nottingham Forest)
Cheikhou Kouyate (Nottingham Forest)
Ola Aina (Nottingham Forest)
Wayne Hennessey (Nottingham Forest)
Willy Boly (Nottingham Forest)
Scott McKenna (Nottingham Forest)
Harry Arter (Nottingham Forest)
Felipe (Nottingham Forest)
Eric Dier (Tottenham Hotspur)
Ivan Perisic (Tottenham Hotspur)
Lucasz Fabianski (West Ham United)
Michail Antonio (West Ham United)
Vladimir Coufal (West Ham United)
Aaron Cresswell (West Ham United)
Angelo Ogbonna (West Ham United)
Pablo Fornals (West Ham United)

Notable others:

Kylian Mbappe (PSG) Luka Modric (Real Madrid), Toni Kroos (Real Madrid), Sergio Ramos (Sevilla), Koke (Atletico Madrid), Mario Hermoso (Atletico Madrid), Olivier Giroud (AC Milan), Adrien Rabiot (Juventus), Alexis Sanchez (Internazionale), Piotr Zielinski (Napoli), Marco Reus (Borussia Dortmund), Mats Hummels (Borussia Dortmund), Angel Di Maria (Benfica), Gabriel Barbosa (Flamengo), Jamie Vardy (Leicester City), Kelechi Iheanacho (Leicester City), Wilfred Ndidi (Leicester City), Che Adams (Southampton)


View: https://www.instagram.com/p/C1l5UX2Me7y/

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A cheeky bid for Jamie Vardy anyone??

Awkward The Simpsons GIF
 
To me, it does not make full sense from Fulham to offer 25 mil for him if they did not sold Palinha.

Well, I obviously cannot say that the scenario you presented (they offered; PEH turned option down), cause all we can do is guesswork... but it would make more sense to me that Fulham withdrew the offer once Palinha deal did not go through?
Agree with you that it’s guesswork but fun to speculate so — according to press reports, Fulham pulled the plug on the Palhinha deal cause they couldn’t line up a replacement, namely PEH.

So it seems: (1) Bayern offered Fulham 55M for Palhinha, 2) Fulham offerd us 25M for PEH to be Palhinia’s replacement, (3) PEH turned Fulham down and (4) with no replacement, Fulham pulled the plug on the Bayern deal. Bayern reportedly still interested in Palhinia this window so I think fair to speculate that Fulham pulled out of the deal and not Bayern.



 
Yes, the WC thing was not aimed at you personally. It was just mentioned on the same page.

I agree that most likely outcome is that PEH leaves and GLC stays.

But I disagree on reasoning. I say the reason is simple - PEH has takers, but no one wants GLC.

I am sad that we could not ever know the truth. Cause we do not see the offers that Levy receives. Nor we know what kind of valuation GLC has in Levy's head. There is just no way of knowing either.

But GLC is not even close to being worth 30 million, and if anyone would come in and offered 20 mil for him, I am absolutely convinced Levy would take it without even second of thinking. People who are in charge of actually spending money are not as stupid as just to watch the last game. You are still totally ignoring the fact that GLC has not been picked to play 77% (!!!) of all EPL minutes. He is on very deep end of a bench. If he (at soon 28!; on significant salary AND 18 months on conract) is worth 30 mil in your eyes, then players like Kulusevski should be like 150 mil?
I’m not so sure. I don’t think Levy likes to realize a loss on transfers - struggling to think of many outgoings where he “admitted defeat” and sold at a loss. My biases could be clouding my memory here of course.

So anyway, I suspect that LoCelso’s 55M purchase price will be a stumbling block to any sale. Particularly with LoCelso in form - I suspect that Levy wouldn’t sell him at loss right now. I think he’d rather roll the dice that LoCelso’s good run of form continues and value goes up .
 
You are thinking emotionally.

Football is more business-like than that. The level he's playing is worth having and expensive to replace.

That's it.

No, you are thinking emotionally and saying last game = value of the player for next 3 years. Which is 100% absurd.

Rational and cold solid facts (upon which business decisions are done) are -
- We de facto purchased him in summer of 2019 for 48 million euros.
- Since then he has been on 2 separate loans to Villareal in total for 1,5 seasons; in there he played 2970 minutes which is equivalent to 33 games; which is less then 1 normal season worth of playing time
- Villareal did not buy him after that relatively long stay / testing period
- He will be 28 yo in start of April; when we brought him he was just 23. By summer-time (assuming he will not be offloaded) 5 years have passed, which is very big part of footballers career in top of the game
- Prior to this season, with his 2,5 seasons he had earned just 4594 minutes for Spurs out of which only 2667 came in EPL. So over very long spell with us he played equivalent of 30 full games in EPL. Across period when we played 95 full games.
- Over this 2,5 seasons he played as AM and managed to score 1 goal and give 3 assists in EPL. So it can be concluded he failed under three different managers (I don't include Nuno nor interim caretakers).
- In current season too, he has just played 411 minutes out of 1800 that we have played in EPL. That is THREE YEARS worth of proof for future potential buyer.
- He is on 80 th EUR per week; this is amount that most clubs just cannot pay. In EPL it's nothing special. But outside EPL + Bayern, PSG, Real, Barca, Atletico, Juve, Inter - this is massive salary.

You can state emotionally, that "well, yea, but under Ange...". To which answer is simple -
- Ange has deemed him fit or good enough only for 23% of minutes in Premier League
- Ange is OUR coach, so for buyer... whose coach... is NOT Ange, it does not matter. Ange is our club specific factor that is not there for buying club.

And if he is available for 1/3 of the time... and he'd be 30 mil player with 80 thEUR per week... quick math says he has to play like a 90 mil player on 240 thEUR per week when he is available. Which he does not.
And whatever club that would buy him would give him 3y contract, which means his sell-on value is close to 0. So.. yea. I am fully sure this will not happen in real. Business-world.

Thus - no one who bases decisions on rational factors would pay 30 mil for Lo Celso.
Also - considering all the proof we have- even his salary alone is not worth keeping him around and giving him extension unless he is willing to take like a 50% paycut. There is 0 point of paying 80 th EUR to player who is there for less than 1/3 of a gametime.
 
Agree with you that it’s guesswork but fun to speculate so — according to press reports, Fulham pulled the plug on the Palhinha deal cause they couldn’t line up a replacement, namely PEH.

So it seems: (1) Bayern offered Fulham 55M for Palhinha, 2) Fulham offerd us 25M for PEH to be Palhinia’s replacement, (3) PEH turned Fulham down and (4) with no replacement, Fulham pulled the plug on the Bayern deal. Bayern reportedly still interested in Palhinia this window so I think fair to speculate that Fulham pulled out of the deal and not Bayern.




Yep, very interesting guesswork indeed :D .

The way you explained it, it could be possible and even logical. But it can also be number of factors. It could have been that Fulham actually wanted more for Palinha + PEH turned them down.

I think Fulham selling Palinha to Bayern and replacing him with PEH would be pretty much best scenario for us as a club.
 
I’m not so sure. I don’t think Levy likes to realize a loss on transfers - struggling to think of many outgoings where he “admitted defeat” and sold at a loss. My biases could be clouding my memory here of course.

So anyway, I suspect that LoCelso’s 55M purchase price will be a stumbling block to any sale. Particularly with LoCelso in form - I suspect that Levy wouldn’t sell him at loss right now. I think he’d rather roll the dice that LoCelso’s good run of form continues and value goes up .

Might have to on this one, I guess it depends who's interested
 
I’m not so sure. I don’t think Levy likes to realize a loss on transfers - struggling to think of many outgoings where he “admitted defeat” and sold at a loss. My biases could be clouding my memory here of course.

So anyway, I suspect that LoCelso’s 55M purchase price will be a stumbling block to any sale. Particularly with LoCelso in form - I suspect that Levy wouldn’t sell him at loss right now. I think he’d rather roll the dice that LoCelso’s good run of form continues and value goes up .

We just sold Sanchez for 8 mil after buying him for 43 mil.

Also Lo Celso price was 48 mil upon purchase, he was 23 up-and-coming. Now he is close to 28, so obviously he has less "value" in him. That is too rational argument for Levy to ignore.
 
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