Except Wolves and Villa obvs
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Management Relegation
- Thread starter simon j
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Except Wolves and Villa obvs
I’m not getting this obsession with calling every game a must win. Last night wasn’t must win. It was more a win and we’re probably 99% safe game. Big difference.
A must win is when you literally need those 3 points to climb out the relegation zone because draws are useless and time has run out. With 2 games left, none are truly must win unless West Ham force it to become that situation.
We’re unbeaten in 4. Nobody expected us to beat Brighton when they’d won 5 straight before facing us. We finally got our first win of the year against a Wolves side that had just taken 7 points from Woolwich, Villa and Liverpool in their previous 3 home games. We beat a Villa side everyone said would roll us over. Then got a point at Leeds who haven’t lost since March and had just taken 4 points from away trips to United and Bournemouth.
Can you point to games we’ve messed up this season? Obviously. Every side near the bottom can. That’s why they’re near the bottom. But people acting like every dropped point is some unique collapse and it’s over for us while ignoring the actual form and context is a bit dramatic.
A must win is when you literally need those 3 points to climb out the relegation zone because draws are useless and time has run out. With 2 games left, none are truly must win unless West Ham force it to become that situation.
We’re unbeaten in 4. Nobody expected us to beat Brighton when they’d won 5 straight before facing us. We finally got our first win of the year against a Wolves side that had just taken 7 points from Woolwich, Villa and Liverpool in their previous 3 home games. We beat a Villa side everyone said would roll us over. Then got a point at Leeds who haven’t lost since March and had just taken 4 points from away trips to United and Bournemouth.
Can you point to games we’ve messed up this season? Obviously. Every side near the bottom can. That’s why they’re near the bottom. But people acting like every dropped point is some unique collapse and it’s over for us while ignoring the actual form and context is a bit dramatic.
I appreciate the sentiment but we have not yet had a true must-win game this year, because even if the worst happens on Sunday/Tuesday we can still survive. The first true do or die would be Everton.
And that's only if Spam leap over us this weekend - if they fail to win at Newcastle we will be 17th going into the final day no matter what, and only required to better the Spam's result to stay up.
We are definitely going down. Not possibly or maybe but definitely.
West Ham will get the points they need, even if the PL have to deduct points from us, and our players will be ordered ro stop trying.
I have also heard De Zerbi wants to wipe the 4 game unbeaten run and give back the 8 points we have gained, he feels illegally.
I say we sign a petition asking for our players to cease trying and for the Newcastle and Leeds United players to lay down arms.
West Ham will get the points they need, even if the PL have to deduct points from us, and our players will be ordered ro stop trying.
I have also heard De Zerbi wants to wipe the 4 game unbeaten run and give back the 8 points we have gained, he feels illegally.
I say we sign a petition asking for our players to cease trying and for the Newcastle and Leeds United players to lay down arms.
It’s 2 x 3 x 2 table ie only 12 possible outcomes; surely .
And ( without working them out ) ; I reckon we’re on top in at least 9 ( if not 10 ) of those outcomes. And that’s factoring in our points and GD advantage.
( Apologies if I’ve got anything wrong: but two teams , two matches to go , only 3 possible results per match etc ) .
Reasons to be cheerful etc .
What is wrong with you?
I know you are a spammer but this is the longest wind up in history.
To be technical there are 81 ordered combinations possible. Each team has 2 matches with 3 possible outcomes, which means there are 9 combinations per club, and with two clubs that makes 81.
But these collapse to only 36 different point total combinations which are possible. Because we don't care the order the results come in (only what the final point total is) we treat Win / Draw the same as Draw / Win and thus these evaluate to one possible combination.
And the current state of play says 7 of those combinations see us go down, while 29 see the Spam going down (given our starting with a 2 point lead, and assuming we can't go down on goals)
It’s not over til the fat lady sings .
We’ve been missing opportunities to avoid relegation since August to be fair .
All we need to do is match WHAM’s results in our next two games ( or even draw one if they beat both of their last two opponents) ; and we’re home and hosed .
We can’t look backwards to games we “ should “ have won . We’ll drive ourselves bananas doing that .
The next two games are the only ones that matter .
Onwards !
Just to addend this a bit - obviously this is a statement of possibilities not of probabilities, because not all scenarios are equally likely. But to act as though our relegation is now nailed on is simply false.
We have many more outs than West Ham does owing to our 2 point lead and goal difference, we have far more routes to safety than they have, and not even a nightmare scenario this weekend could doom us completely.
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Ah, so 2 out of 6
Like I said before; our Home record is what’s going to kill us
It’s absolutely horrible luck that we now have to try to save ourselves at a ground where we are absolutely dreadful and never ever win, and we have to go to the Bridge first
Notabadsquad is just being facetious/sarcastic.
He’s been one of the most constantly positive voices on here against relegation.
I said pre Forest we needed three wins to stay up. Nothing has changed since then. Two down, one to go. Should have been Monday.
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