Spurs Odds and Percentages Thread

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Resurrecting this thread for this season. Obviously it's not that interesting this early on, but later on in the season it'll be interesting to look back on to see how things change. Read the first post in the thread if you want to see where this all comes from.

Premier League Winners: Man City 50.6%, Man Utd 24.1%, Chelsea 14.5%, Tottenham 5.1%, Liverpool 3.1%, Woolwich 2.4%
Premier League Top 4: Man City 95.7%, Man Utd 94.3%, Chelsea 76.0%, Tottenham 56.2%, Liverpool 46.5%, Woolwich 35.5%
Premier League Top Scorer: Kane 24.1%, Lukaku 23.0%, Aguero 17.6%, Morata 11.6%, Jesus 7.0%, Lacazette 5.4%
Champions League Winners: Real Madrid 17.7%, PSG and Bayern Munich both 13.3%, Barcelona 12.7%, Man City 9.5%, Man Utd 6.2%, Juventus 5.2%, Atletico Madrid 5.1%, Chelsea 4.9%, Napoli 2.7%, Tottenham 2.6%, Liverpool 2.3%, Woolwich 0.0%
FA Cup Winners: Man City 14.5%, Chelsea 13.4%, Man Utd 12.9%, Tottenham 9.9%, Liverpool and Woolwich both 9.3%, Everton 4.4%
League Cup Winners: Man City 20.6%, Man Utd 17.2%, Chelsea 14.4%, Woolwich 10.9%, Tottenham 10.6%, Leicester 5.6%

I'd like to be able to give chances for things like qualifying from our Champions League group or reaching the Champions League quarter-finals too, but the markets for those aren't active enough yet.
 
Time for an update. Previous chances calculated on 27th Sept are given in brackets for comparison.

Premier League Winners: Man City 92.2% (50.6%), Man Utd 4.9% (24.1%), Chelsea 1.1% (14.5%), Tottenham 0.4% (5.1%), Liverpool 1.0% (3.1%), Woolwich 0.5% (2.4%)

Premier League Top 4: Man City > 99.5% (95.7%), Man Utd 85.5% (94.3%), Chelsea 73.0% (76.0%), Tottenham 38.8% (56.2%), Liverpool 61.2% (46.5%), Woolwich 34.9% (35.5%)

Premier League Top Scorer: Kane 37.3% (24.1%), Lukaku 6.6% (23.0%), Aguero 13.7% (17.6%), Morata 6.5% (11.6%), Jesus 4.6% (7.0%), Lacazette 3.0% (5.4%), Salah 17.2% (< 5%)

Champions League Winners: Real Madrid 11.0% (17.7%), PSG 14.5% (13.3%), Bayern Munich 15.2% (13.3%), Barcelona 11.8% (12.7%), Man City 23.0% (9.5%), Man Utd 5.6% (6.2%), Juventus 4.1% (5.2%), Chelsea 2.9% (4.9%), Tottenham 3.4% (2.6%), Liverpool 5.6% (2.3%), Woolwich 0.0% (0.0%)

FA Cup Winners: Man City 18.0% (14.5%), Chelsea 11.7% (13.4%), Man Utd 12.8% (12.9%), Tottenham 10.6% (9.9%), Liverpool 8.9% (9.3%), Woolwich 8.9% (9.3%)
 
More magnificent work alexwooty alexwooty

CL %s are a joke given what we did to Italian opposition last time we reached the last 16

Man City 37.7% to win the CL, Real Madrid. 12.5%, Spurs 3.57%.

So having bossed our Group, which included the reigning Champions and was regarded as the toughest group in the competition, Spurs are, at 28/1, er, unlikely to make it of their group, and then only as runner-up.








:pochbye:
 
alexwooty said:
Another update is in order... up to 70.2% chance of top 4.
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Top work
 
Park Lane Mark Twain said:
Probably the best thread I could find for this. Football Web Pages & their statistics based on the season so far have us achieving our records points total in Premier League era:

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Premier League table PREDICTED: Man Utd, Man City look away now - Liverpool CHAMPIONS

Hopefully the injuries don't impact this but it's not bad viewing for a team apparently going backwards. They do have us down for drawing 1 game away though :deledoubt:
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We don’t do draws can’t be taken seriously
 
Blanchflower said:
2% seems too low given that we still play Liverpool
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Not when you consider they give us only a 20% chance of winning at Anfield. Sure, it's an oppourtunity, but it's nearly three times as likely that that game sees Liverpool win and erase any hope. And even if we did win we'd still be some way behind.

That being said, it's not the position we're in that means they give us such a low chance. City only have two more points and they're at 26%. It's more that they think we've been pretty lucky so far: we've managed 2.28 points per game, but they only expect us to get another 1.85 per game from this point onwards. Partly that's as we do have a tough remaining fixture list with four big teams left out of 13 games, but even with that they think we've been playing more like a 2 point per game team than 2.28. Especially on recent form, that's fair. In our last six we've lost at home to Wolves (!!!) and United (still not good), while sneaking very, very late wins against Fulham, Watford and Newcastle where we should've been far more comfortable - the only good match has been at Cardiff, and we've also gone out of two cups in that time. We had similar just before that against Burnley, and in general have been just scraping results rather than playing brilliantly - only three times have we won by 3+ goals. That points to a team with a lot of grit and fight, but ultimately isn't sustainable (you can't score late every week) and doesn't suggest you'll do that well when up against truly top sides (see: City, Liverpool and Barca all dominating us at Wembley). Fundamentally, it's the statistics you'd expect of side competing for the Top 4, and our ability to keep fighting and eke out results is what makes us a solid 3rd above the rest of those teams, but isn't enough to have a great chance of the title even if we weren't already a distance behind at this point.
 
Rocket said:
Paging Mr. alexwooty alexwooty to the thread. I know I'm a tiresome cunt, but any chance of a quick CL winners odds update before AND after the draw?
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Here you go Mr. Rocket Rocket . Pre-draw odds have us at 5.3%, which is actually lower than it was just after our first leg against Dortmund, weirdly. Ajax and Porto aren't on the graphic but are at 3% and 1% respectively. Will update again this afternoon!

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Update 8th April. Still strongly favoured to make Top 4, but it's by no means certain.

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Some other odds of interest:
Winner of CL QF tie: Spurs 20.8%, City 79.4%.
Top 3 Finish (relevant to whether we finish above Woolwich): Spurs 54.7%, Woolwich 23.3%, Chelsea 15.6%, United 6.6%.
 
Ignoring the possibility of us winning the league (1500 to 1), here are the 3 main battles we're in, from most likely to least likely according to the odds.

League Cup

Man City 1/3 ie 75%
Spurs 9/4 ie 31%
Obviously there's some bookie profit in there.

Top 4

Man City off the board
Man U 1/6 ie 86%
Chelsea 1/3 ie 75%
Leicester 3/4 ie 57%
Spurs 16/5 ie 24%
West Ham 4/1 ie 20%
Liverpool 5/1 ie 17%
Everton 44/5 10%
Everybody else 40/1 or worse

Europa League

Spurs 41/10 ie 20%
Man U 9/2 ie 18%
Woolwich 5/1 ie 17%
Roma 9/1 ie 10%
Ajax 9/1 ie 10%
Villareal 10/1 ie 9%
Milan 23/2 ie 8%
Granada 25/1 ie 4%
Rangers 35/1 ie 3%
Everybody else 66/1 or worse

First interesting thing is that most people seem to believe that we have a better shot of winning the EL than getting top 4. Bettors do not agree. Even though we are the favorites to win the EL, there's still so many good teams left that the odds are spread around pretty thin. Plus there can only be one EL winner while there's still three top 4 spots up for grabs. While Man U might seem like a mortal lock for Top 4, oddsmakers give them a meaningful (14%) chance of not getting it. And it gets even more pronounced when you're talking about Chelsea or Leicester failing to make top 4.

Second interesting thing to me is that Chelsea is considered significantly more likely to make top 4 than Leicester despite sitting 3 points below them. I think bettors are very concerned about Leicester's injuries and remaining fixtures, as they barely give them more than a 50% chance of holding on to a top 4 spot.

Third interesting thing to me is that Everton appear close to written off by bettors for top 4 besides seeming to be well in the hunt points-wise.

Last interesting thing to me is that Man U is still second favorite to win the EL despite having a very real challenge ahead of them just to get into the next round.
 
Update 10th April:
Title Winners: Chelsea 89.7%, Spurs 9.3%, all others < 0.25%
Top 4 Finish: Chelsea > 99.9%, Spurs 96.6%, Man City 85.8%, Liverpool 71.9%, Woolwich 23.8%, Man United 18.4%.
FA Cup Winners: Chelsea 31.5%, Man City 30.5%, Spurs 21.1%, Woolwich 17.4%

So beating Swansea and Watford really hasn't changed much for us as far as the title race goes. Chelsea beating City has pretty much eliminated City from the race though. Our top 4 chances have crept up a bit.

Interestingly our chances of winning the cup seem to have gone up, presumably because of Kane coming back and our form.
 
Fattynomates said:
Strange how the chavs have got higher odds to win the cup, granted they are top of the league but we beat them comfortably at the lane, and even though we lost to them at there place I still make it 3-2 to us on aggregate.......
I wonder how they come up with these odds?
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See the first post in the thread - it's not the bookies themselves coming up with the odds, but punters (both amateur and professional)
 
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