Cup singular.
It's EL or bust and my money's on bust with this guy in charge.
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- Thread starter Coys1955
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It's EL or bust and my money's on bust with this guy in charge.
I'd love the EL and would settle for 17th if we win it.
But my money is on knocked out in the play-offs by Ajax or Fenerbahce. Two decent teams with a grudge. Also the likes of Porto and Roma lurking about. This is Spurs we're talking about.
We probably will start to climb the table, but only if we actually try to. We won't if we just sack it off.
I absolutely agree.
But I would also say: if that had been called foul, then they'd have had another 3 chances in the next 20 mins though more careless playing out the back/no midfield/losing possession anywhere becoming a counterattack.
yeah bust is the most likely outcomes for sure! According to betting odds, we have a 22% chance of winning EL, 18% chance of winning League Cup, and 10% chance of winning FA cup.
22%+ 18%+10% = 50% chance of winning a trophy.
Now before you start, I don't think we'll win a trophy either! But the bookies seem to be giving us a fair chance!
You can't add those percentages together, that's not how it works!
And we will all agree that those odds are extremely optimistic and reflect betting trends as much as probability.
Why not? 3 individual tournaments that should have no direct impact on the other. I agree that all odds are extremely optimistic though. I don't think we will win a trophy
Think about it. On the flip side we have 78% , 82% and 90% chances of not winning. By your logic we have a 250% chance of not winning which is mathematically invalid.
I'll need to go and do the maths properly but a better guide is the average of the 3, so 17%.
yeah good point that. I was thinking 50% was crazy haha
Yeah perhaps, not sure whether they'd have been clear cuts like the handball goal though. Likely some nervy moments at the back no doubt....but you can't rule out that with a goal behind us, confidence flowing (and not conceded) we may actually have scored again.
I think you just take the 22% as the best chance. It makes no sense to average them. Not to me, anyway.
yeah definitely not. If we have a 22% chance of winning Europa then how could we only have a 17% chance of winning any cup. It has to be higher
I actually think my initial logic wasn't too far off. The inverse outcome is 78%, 82% and 90% and all 3 of these need to come in for us to not win a trophy, so in this scenario you multiply all 3 by eachother and get 58%.
Therefore we have a 42% chance of winning a trophy according to the bookies. I think I'm right this time.
Disclaimer: This is not me saying we have a 42% chance. This is just the chance the bookies are giving us and some of their odds on us are quite generous.
Therefore we have a 42% chance of winning a trophy according to the bookies. I think I'm right this time.
Disclaimer: This is not me saying we have a 42% chance. This is just the chance the bookies are giving us and some of their odds on us are quite generous.
Why not try to create your own logic to work it out rather than take an easy cheap shot at me
cheap shot? You lecture us and you can't even work out how stats work?
I'd love to be your bookmaker mate, I'd make a fucking fortune
You have to multiple the chances of not winning. 0.78 * 0.82 * 0.90 is the odds of winning nothing. Which works out at 57.5% So 42.5% chance of winning at least one.
Chance of winning all 3 is 0.22 * 0.18 * 0.10 = 0.4%
Chance of winning exactly 1 or exactly 2 is a little trickier but not that hard.
Full disclosure: I have a university degree in this shit.
Nice one mate! That makes sense. 42.5% is higher than most of us would have expected so at least we have a chance!
Sorry I had a typo, have corrected