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Transfers Summer Transfer thread - 2024

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How Dry should our Powder be?

  • Total voters
    57
LeParisien said:
The first transfer here in the list of all time record signings that was definitely a success is number 16 - Gareth Bale: Transfer records

It’s probable that Rice and Bellingham will also turn out to be successes. That’s 3 players in the top 16? It’s an unbelievably bad return in spending big.
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This is something I've noticed and it's a really interesting pattern.

I wonder if there's a mental aspect of being associated with such a huge fee. Maybe you just need to be a mental-freak like Bellingham or CR7 to shut out the noise, they can't all be crap players.

It's partly why I'm fine with Spurs' strategy to focus more on that £30-60m range for our "big" signings. They seem to have a higher hit rate. Not to mention our larger outlays over the years have largely been flops (Ndombele, Richy, Sissoko, Lamela, Gio, Sanchez... all the way back to Rebrov).
 
LeParisien said:
Sport is competition that relies on human capital. Hiring in any field is a crapshoot.

Compare it with a restaurant that spends 5k on some equipment… you know ahead of time what that equipment will do for you. The risk is much diminished. Humans though - much less predictable. Having conviction just won’t cut it.

Same with our club. A stadium has much more certain returns than a £50m midfielder. There is a lot more risk with players.

The first transfer here in the list of all time record signings that was definitely a success is number 16 - Gareth Bale: Transfer records

It’s probable that Rice and Bellingham will also turn out to be successes. That’s 3 players in the top 16? It’s an unbelievably bad return in spending big.

The same would apply to Tottenham as a club.

This shit is hard and if you have limited resources you need luck. Or…you increase your resources. Which is what we’ve done and the only way we can compete long term. Well done Levy on the strategy.
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Wages are a much more reliable correlation with success. Have been for a long time as well, mate.

Transfer fees may be a crapshoot but offering top range wages to get and keep top range players is much more likely to get you success.
 
Klaus said:
This is something I've noticed and it's a really interesting pattern.

I wonder if there's a mental aspect of being associated with such a huge fee. Maybe you just need to be a mental-freak like Bellingham or CR7 to shut out the noise, they can't all be crap players.

It's partly why I'm fine with Spurs' strategy to focus more on that £30-60m range for our "big" signings. They seem to have a higher hit rate. Not to mention our larger outlays over the years have largely been flops (Ndombele, Richy, Sissoko, Lamela, Gio, Sanchez... all the way back to Rebrov).
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It’s notable that some of these players have put in sustained performances that may be worthy of that price tag (Griezmann, Countinho, Ronaldo…) just not for the clubs that paid the fee…
 
I’ve literally no confidence that we’ll find the right players we need to win us a title. We’re just so so far off the top.
 
Richard Arlison said:
Wages are a much more reliable correlation with success. Have been for a long time as well, mate.

Transfer fees may be a crapshoot but offering top range wages to get and keep top range players is much more likely to get you success.
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I agree. And clubs do one of two things:

1) Spend their considerably higher revenue on wages
2) Over-extend themselves

There’s no secret sauce.

(Premier League | FBref.com)
 
LeParisien said:
I agree. And clubs do one of two things:

1) Spend their considerably higher revenue on wages
2) Over-extend themselves

There’s no secret sauce.

(Premier League | FBref.com)
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Did we over-extend ourselves to build the stadium?

I think you can extend yourself to win without over extending but trophies don't bring reliable enough revenue for the Levy model to justify it. He has increased the revenue but it's probably been enough for us to consolidate where Poch's squad got us.

The same question about extending outside the comfort zone still exists IMO.
 
Richard Arlison said:
Did we over-extend ourselves to build the stadium?

I think you can extend yourself to win without over extending but trophies don't bring reliable enough revenue for the Levy model to justify it. He has increased the revenue but it's probably been enough for us to consolidate where Poch's squad got us.

The same question about extending outside the comfort zone still exists IMO.
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Go back and read what I wrote about human capital vs things like machines and stadiums. The difference is risk.

Also, the expected returns on the stadium are
being reinvested in the playing squad. The amount of player we can afford has increased because of these investments. It’s the difference between short term and long term thinking.
 
Richard Arlison said:
I know it's just a HLs but still...


View: https://youtu.be/ZJ-Iz-mlA04?si=vlBUCPDy_1Fm2V7a
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Wow. Never trust a highlight reel... but that's one hell of a highlight reel.

Only individual game footage I found

Looks a very progressive player, always looking to pass forward or drive forward with the ball, play the risky pass. Very much a #10 as opposed to a CM or #8. Not sure I could see him being used out wide, but he's a good dribbler so maybe.

Decent stats. His pass completion is low but that could just reflect his creative role in the team (KDB has similarly low pass completion).

My only worry would be his size, not sure you could play both him and Maddison in the same team too often, might get bullied. He also seems to pick up a lot of the same pockets as Maddison.

He's clearly a talent and as competition for Maddison I can see it, just not sure that's our most urgent squad need.
 
LeParisien said:
Go back and read what I wrote about human capital vs things like machines and stadiums. The difference is risk.

Also, the expected returns on the stadium are
being reinvested in the playing squad. The amount of player we can afford has increased because of these investments. It’s the difference between short term and long term thinking.
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I got that mate.

I’m saying Levy doesn’t see the risk/reward to support any extending of resources to win things by recruiting better players.

As long as the stadium is full he won’t.

As for the increased stadium revenue, its undeniable but what I’m saying is that that increased revenue without any extending ourselves has only shown itself to be enough to consolidate where we are.

If we want to win, the club will still likely need to extend itself beyond the current revenue to player investment model.

Unless the fans start showing him why it’s important to him to win and take the risk, Levy isn’t changing the model.
 
Klaus said:
Wow. Never trust a highlight reel... but that's one hell of a highlight reel.

Only individual game footage I found

Looks a very progressive player, always looking to pass forward or drive forward with the ball, play the risky pass. Very much a #10 as opposed to a CM or #8. Not sure I could see him being used out wide, but he's a good dribbler so maybe.

Decent stats. His pass completion is low but that could just reflect his creative role in the team (KDB has similarly low pass completion).

My only worry would be his size, not sure you could play both him and Maddison in the same team too often, might get bullied. He also seems to pick up a lot of the same pockets as Maddison.

He's clearly a talent and as competition for Maddison I can see it, just not sure that's our most urgent squad need.
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I have watched a bunch of games with him this year.

He’s a real talent. Like Maddison he’s one that sees things nobody else does and has that unshakable cockiness to try shit. Does it either foot as well. Which is why I’d be confident putting him on either wing.

I would sign this guy before Eze, MGW, Kubo or the Ukrainian we have been linked to. Get a two way winger like CHO with him and I’d be pretty excited tbh
 
There are obvious specific areas to be addressed, but also depth in general. Postecoglou plays a high line, high intensity style that has some similarity to Guardiola's game. But a key difference (as any frustrated Premier League Fantasy player can tell you) is Man City have the depth to rest quality players for a complete game or nearly so, and replace them with other quality players. I don't think the late season slump we're seeing is entirely other teams adjusting to Spurs, although that is probably a factor. I think the players are just wearing down. Even without mid-week football to play, they still have to practice at pace for a team which lacks depth. As I read that we need to get rid of this player or that player, I can't help but think even some of those players who shouldn't stay as first team players need to be kept to provide depth. The problem is Spurs, unlike the top teams, are on a pay as you go basis and they will likely balance money spent on incoming players with outgoing sales to a greater degree than others. You also still need exceptional players to build around, where Spurs want to strike out the word "exceptional" and replace it with "potentially very good". This also means that if the board still wants to do things on the cheap Spurs have to do a much better job developing young players and taking a chance by using them. If depth isn't addressed and Postecoglou keeps playing this style we'll always be one injury to van de Vyn or Udogie away from seeing the season slip away.
 
Richard Arlison said:
I got that mate.

I’m saying Levy doesn’t see the risk/reward to support any extending of resources to win things by recruiting better players.

As long as the stadium is full he won’t.

As for the increased stadium revenue, its undeniable but what I’m saying is that that increased revenue without any extending ourselves has only shown itself to be enough to consolidate where we are.

If we want to win, the club will still likely need to extend itself beyond the current revenue to player investment model.

Unless the fans start showing him why it’s important to him to win and take the risk, Levy isn’t changing the model.
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I don’t know if you do get it. Why do you see over extending ourselves as a virtue? Isn’t it better to grow our revenue so we can spend more without overextending ourselves?


Also:Tottenham Hotspur - Record arrivals

Check the dates. Factually incorrect. Sure, there’s been a general inflation but given what you said you understand, you know that our increased revenues are being spent on the playing squad.
 
LeParisien said:
I don’t know if you do get it. Why do you see over extending ourselves as a virtue? Isn’t it better to grow our revenue so we can spend more without overextending ourselves?


Also:Tottenham Hotspur - Record arrivals

Check the dates. Factually incorrect. Sure, there’s been a general inflation but given what you said you understand, you know that our increased revenues are being spent on the playing squad.
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I see winning as a virtue.

Wages that would extend ourselves are correlated with winning.

Forget transfer fees
 
Richard Arlison said:
Sure.

We have owners that never invest their own money so we haven't been able to spend as much as clubs whose owners do.
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The teams who win nearly everything have nation states funding them. It’s no surprise we don’t compete financially.

We are Liverpool/Woolwich level of capacity. And even that is only because of excellent strategic leadership - historically we’re a smaller club than both.
 
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