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Tactics TFC's Tactical Autopsy Thread

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bus-conductor said:

View: https://x.com/dataanalyticepl/status/1847602219282989327?s=46&t=IomICbZIqZC4FsH907qgfw
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pondering simon rex GIF by Simon Rex / Dirt Nasty
 
I thought I'd revisit a discussion I had with Klaus Klaus on the Brentford match thread a few weeks back:

SeeSpotRun said:
I think this aligns well with my initial point:


I think we're in agreement that we're not attempting enough slide-rule passes, take-ons and flicks, and choosing safe options too often. There are a few components to that including:
  • individual ability
  • individual and collective confidence / conviction
  • off-ball runs to create opportunities for defence-splitting passes
  • pre-drilled attacking patterns
  • fear of consequences of coughing up possession
  • instructions from manager
The symptoms are pretty clear: high possession but low xG. And it's pretty squarely on Ange and his coaching staff to be improving all of the above. We're still a long way from City levels but that's not really that much of a surprise. But we were pretty horrible early this calendar year and I like to think we've improved so far this season but just not clicking yet (witness the number of cut-backs to a vacant penalty spot, and number of fizzing low balls in front of the keeper when our striker has checked back to the penalty spot).
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Anyway, coming back to the main point: Tottenham's matches with high possession% and low chance creation (Leicester, Newcastle, Coventry) are symptomatic of insufficient risk-taking when in possession, too often opting for safe passes around the horseshoe, and not enough attempts at defence-splitting passes, take-ons, disguised flicks etc.
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There were a few posts either side of that one if you're interested.

Since then, I think the stats show our front 5 have been attempting more risky passes and take-on's, resulting in lower successful completion rate so more turnovers and hence lower possession:

Vs
Front 5 Pass + Take-On Success​
Possession​
Leicester Away
78.1%​
70%​
Everton Home
75.5%​
70%​
Newcastle Away
73.7%​
65%​
Woolwich Home
73.8%​
63%​
Brentford Home
71.5%​
48%​
United Away
78.5%​
61%​
Brighton Away
69.9%​
59%​
West Ham Home
71.8%​
57%​

I've greyed out the United game because their defence was rubbish and there was an early red card (and because it doesn't fit my argument)

I think the Leicester gave was a good example of not attempting enough take-ons or defence-splitting passes, so we were getting into good positions, keeping the ball, but not creating chances. The balance seems a lot better now, and we're creating more chances as a result. And when we do turn the ball over in the process, we're setting up a better defensive structure, behind a quite effective high press, when compared to say the second half of last season.
 
Premier League rank after 8 games:

Category NumberRank
Goals 182nd
Goals per match2.32nd
xG171st
Average possession 61.90%2nd
Big chances 292nd
Touches in opposition box 3552nd
Corners 761st
Goals conceded 95th
Goals conceded per match 1.15th
xG conceded 8.72nd
Possession won in the final third per match 7.51st
 
 
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