The Final 12 Games

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HarryHotspur said:
Spurs:
West Ham (a) - 3
Woolwich (h) - 3
Liverpool (a) - 3
Fulham (h) - 3
Swansea (a) - 1
Everton (h) - 3
Chelsea (a) - 3
Man City (h) - 3
Wigan (a) - 3
Southampton (h) - 3
Stoke (a) - 3
Sunderland (h) - 3
Final points - 82

Man City
Chelsea (h) - 1
Villa (a) - 3
Wigan (h) - 3
Everton (a) - 0
Newcastle (h) - 3
Man Utd (a) - 1
West Brom (h) - 3
Spurs (a) - 1
West Ham (h) - 3
Swansea (a) - 1
Reading (a) - 3
Norwich (h) - 3
Final Points - 78

Chelsea
Man City (a) - 1
West Brom (h) - 3
Fulham (a) - 1
West Ham (h) - 3
Southampton (a) - 3
Sunderland (h) - 3
Spurs (h) - 3
Liverpool (a) - 0
Swansea (h) - 3
Man Utd (a) - 1
Aston Villa (h) - 3
Everton (a) - 3
Final Points - 76

Woolwich
Aston Villa (h) - 3
Spurs (a) - 0
Everton (h) - 1
Swansea (a) - 3
Reading (h) - 3
West Brom (a) - 3
Norwich (h) - 3
Fulham (a) - 1
Man Utd (h) - 1
QPR (a) - 3
Wigan (h) - 3
Newcastle (a) - 3
Final Points - 71

Yanited

QPR (a) - 0
Norwich (h) - 3
West Ham (a) - 0
Reading (h) - 3
Sunderland (a) - 1
Man City (h) - 1
Stoke (a) - 0
Villa (h) - 3
Woolwich (a) - 1
Chelsea (h) - 1
Swansea (h) - 3
West Brom (a) - 0
Final Points - 81


WHICH MEANS.... Tottenham Hotspur Football Club are crowned Barclays Premier League Champions for the 2012/2013 Season!

:avbdamn: :adegrin2: :dawson: :balelol: :kaboullol: :levywhoa: :lennon: :vert: :gallas:
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You've got us beating city but in their matches you've got them getting a draw at the lane?
:avbfacepalm:
 
jimmyriggle said:
Looking at our upcoming fixtures and those vying for the spots below Man United (yes, city can probably now be caught) where do we think we'll finish?
I think Us, Chelsea, United and Woolwich's European progress will have an effect, as will the FA Cup but difficuly to allow for that at this stage. In a way we need United out of the CL now and to somehow let city back in so they don't take their foot off the gas by the time they play Chelsea and Woolwich pretty much back to back.

Spurs:
West Ham (a) - 3
Woolwich (h) - 3
Liverpool (a) - 1
Fulham (h) - 3
Swansea (a) -3
Everton (h) - 3
Chelsea (a) - 0
Man City (h) - 1
Wigan (a) - 3
Southampton (h) - 3
Stoke (a) - 1
Sunderland (h) - 3
Final points - 75

Man City
Chelsea (h) - 1
Villa (a) - 3
Wigan (h) - 3
Everton (a) - 0
Newcastle (h) - 3
Man Utd (a) - 1
West Brom (h) - 3
Spurs (a) - 1
West Ham (h) - 3
Swansea (a) - 1
Reading (a) - 3
Norwich (h) - 3
Final Points - 78

Chelsea
Man City (a) - 1
West Brom (h) - 3
Fulham (a) - 1
West Ham (h) - 3
Southampton (a) - 3
Sunderland (h) - 3
Spurs (h) - 3
Liverpool (a) - 0
Swansea (h) - 3
Man Utd (a) - 1
Aston Villa (h) - 3
Everton (a) - 3
Final Points - 76

Woolwich
Aston Villa (h) - 3
Spurs (a) - 0
Everton (h) - 1
Swansea (a) - 3
Reading (h) - 3
West Brom (a) - 3
Norwich (h) - 3
Fulham (a) - 1
Man Utd (h) - 1
QPR (a) - 3
Wigan (h) - 3
Newcastle (a) - 3
Final Points - 71

Final Standings
1. Man Utd - Billion points
2. Man City - 78
3. Chelsea - 76
4. Spurs - 75
5. Woolwich - 71
Click to expand...

If Spurs an avoid the Chelscum Double, thinking they'll nick that 3rd place

That fixture vs Woolwich..........3 points is an absolute must
 
Don't see us losing only one game between now and the end of the season. That said, the scum will most definately be dropping more points.

You never know with paedoman though. I think I'd vomit blood if they pipped us to fourth.
 
69 points is the highest number of points recorded (by us) for 4th spot but this year that could well increase, around 72 should do it.

Can't see our rivals dropping too many more points they have easier fixtures than us but we play them and need to leave our mark.

March and April are key months, if we get to May in top 4 we should bring it home.
 
Hate to say it, but I don't think we're playing well enough to get 4th. Goal difference is always a better indicator of performance than points total and we have failed to dominate teams this season. At some point that kind of thing tends to bite you in the nadgers, and if we do get 4th then it'll be reliant on us beating Woolwich. A draw won't do.
 
LLB Part Deux said:
Hate to say it, but I don't think we're playing well enough to get 4th. Goal difference is always a better indicator of performance than points total and we have failed to dominate teams this season. At some point that kind of thing tends to bite you in the nadgers, and if we do get 4th then it'll be reliant on us beating Woolwich. A draw won't do.
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A good point, we have had a very steady season so far no massive high's where we smash teams week in week out but no real lows either where we go on a rotten run.

I think the main worry is that we are always just about edging games, we tend to win by one goal and never really turn it on for 90 minutes or turn it on for a period of time and put the game beyond doubt. We've seen what happens when we fail to edge winnable games, conceding late, throwing points away we are always one goal away from a bad result.
 
AryelAbrahami said:
A good point, we have had a very steady season so far no massive high's where we smash teams week in week out but no real lows either where we go on a rotten run.

I think the main worry is that we are always just about edging games, we tend to win by one goal and never really turn it on for 90 minutes or turn it on for a period of time and put the game beyond doubt. We've seen what happens when we fail to edge winnable games, conceding late, throwing points away we are always one goal away from a bad result.
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While I agree there is the danger of this based on the beginning of the season and the Everton game which is the only time it's happened for a while...we seem to be scoring late and picking up vital points. Since probably the end of October we've only really dropped points by conceding late on once and that was at Goodison.
 
I'm sure we'll lose again before the season is out, a couple of times no doubt, but at least everyone else is losing stoopid games too! Man City at Southampton and Liverpool at home to West Brom were results I only thought we were capable of!
Maybe our recent win against West Brom was more impressive than I first thought!!

Our run-in is pretty straightforward if we make sure it is! It's up to us to fuck up royally, and whilst we're perfectly capable of fucking up royally, we really need to fucking focus this year on making sure last season doesn't happen again!

it might sound daft, but maybe us 'only' being 4 points ahead of ArseAnal won't allow complacency to set in, and all the nonsense and inevitability that went with a 10 point (mind the) gap last year!!!!
Possibly a smaller gap will prove to be a blessing in disguise.
Plus I don't expect AVB to be linked with the England job anytime soon, and effectively ruin everything!
 
Spurs:
West Ham (a) - 1
Woolwich (h) - 1
Liverpool (a) - 0
Fulham (h) - 3
Swansea (a) - 3
Everton (h) - 1
Chelsea (a) - 0
Man City (h) - 0
Wigan (a) - 3
Southampton (h) - 3
Stoke (a) - 1
Sunderland (h) - 3
Final points - 67

Man City
Chelsea (h) - 1
Villa (a) - 3
Wigan (h) - 3
Everton (a) - 0
Newcastle (h) - 3
Man Utd (a) - 0
West Brom (h) - 3
Spurs (a) - 3
West Ham (h) - 3
Swansea (a) - 1
Reading (a) - 3
Norwich (h) - 3
Final Points - 79

Chelsea
Man City (a) - 1
West Brom (h) - 3
Fulham (a) - 3
West Ham (h) - 3
Southampton (a) - 1
Sunderland (h) - 3
Spurs (h) - 3
Liverpool (a) - 1
Swansea (h) - 3
Man Utd (a) - 0
Aston Villa (h) - 3
Everton (a) - 1
Final Points - 74

Woolwich
Aston Villa (h) - 3
Spurs (a) - 1
Everton (h) - 1
Swansea (a) - 3
Reading (h) - 3
West Brom (a) - 1
Norwich (h) - 3
Fulham (a) - 1
Man Utd (h) - 0
QPR (a) - 3
Wigan (h) - 3
Newcastle (a) - 3
Final Points - 69

Final Standings
1. Man Utd - Win
2. Man City - 79
3. Chelsea - 74
4. Woolwich - 69
5. Spurs - 67
For me, we have to win the derby if we want to finish above the other lot.
 
Woolwich to win away at QPR and Newcastle ......:harryhmm:
Think those two might be harder than people think.
 
I still think it is far harder to call than people think, it's really going to be exciting to see where people end up. I honestly think we can do it, We may not be smashing teams but we don't look very easy to beat either. And even though we haven't been at our best we have still been getting results, which is the sign of a good team isn't it? We still have a couple of gears to step into if we can start firing on all cylinders at the business end of the season we could seriously make a charge here. Not for the title, United have that wrapped up, but we could still be the best of the rest.
 
I think points total is a far better indicator than goal difference as to how we're doing. I'll settle for finishing 4th above by Woolwich by one point, with them having a ten goal better difference.

In 1960 we finished 3rd with a better goal average as it was then compared to the champions Burnley - guess who was the happiest? We had a better goal difference too

http://stats.football.co.uk/league_tables/1959_1960/first_division/index.shtml

The team that finished 4th West Brom had a better goal average than the champions, we had the best in the whole division. Fat lot of good it did either of us.
Incidentally a classic table is 62/63

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/division-one-old/1962-1963/custom-table

we have the best GD but only finish 2nd, even more incredible we get 111 goals and only 55 pts - of course it was 2pts for a win then, but still, it's hard to imagine. We managed to lose 10 games despite scoring 111 goals.

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/division-one-old/1962-1963/custom-table

Back to the present - My big worry is that we didn't buy a striker, so much will depend on Ade and Clint now. And indeed JD when he comes back.

I can't make my mind up about Woolwich, I kinda expect them to turn us over as usual, but we do have two players in Bale and Lloris that are on a different level to anything they have, though I think Wilshere and Walcott are very good players.

The bookies can't split us, nor can I ATM. I'm not worried about Everton, never have been. I was much more worried about Liverpool, but I've thought all season long if we finish above Woolwich we'll get top 4.

Chelsea I don't expect to catch, but they have problems. Unfortunately they just go out and buy someone like Ba, while we make enquiries about strikers.
 
That is a shit run tbh. A couple big hitters plus some scrappy fight for their life teams, towards the end. It wont be easy, but if we keep our shit together it can be done.
 
LLB Part Deux said:
Goal difference is always a better indicator of performance than points total
Click to expand...
What does this mean? At some point, surely points total is the overriding indicator of a team's excellence, because that, ultimately, is the statistic that, you know, matters.

I pulled together the statistics (again courtesy of MyFootbalFacts MyFootbalFacts ) of the last nine PL seasons and compared how teams did in terms of goal differential place (highest GD to lowest) vs. points (highest to lowest). I took the differences of the two classifications, and then averaged the differences across the seasons:
Av5DW1S.png

It's not exactly a regression analysis (hi, Julesybird Julesybird ), but it does suggest one key thing: namely that there really is a strong correlation between goal differential and table position only for the top three places. Starting with fourth place, things get rather volatile, and you have teams with bad differentials compared to those below them in the table, or teams with good differentials looking up at opponents who can't seem to "put games away" but still get the points they need. We saw this last year, where Newcastle, with a GD of +5, placed fifth in the table with only the eighth best GD. In the middle of the table, as you'd expect, things get especially muddy. But even among the relegation candidates, you still don't always have the three worst GDs (but it's close). In fact, the heroes of GD are Manchester City in 2003–2004, who finished just above a relegation scrap in 16th with a GD of +1—the eighth best in the league that season!
 
Tricky D said:
That is a shit run tbh. A couple big hitters plus some scrappy fight for their life teams, towards the end. It wont be easy, but if we keep our shit together it can be done.
Click to expand...
We do have a tough run in, but I think Stoke and Sunderland will be safe by the time we play them. Of course Stoke will still be difficult, but Sunderland might be about as easy as it gets in the Prem.

If I was to guess I'd say we'll get 69 points and it might just be enough, but really it's too hard to call IMHO. West Ham away will tell us so much, win that, and suddenly we're looking in pole position for sure I reckon.
 
1882 said:
I'm sure we'll lose again before the season is out, a couple of times no doubt, but at least everyone else is losing stoopid games too! Man City at Southampton and Liverpool at home to West Brom were results I only thought we were capable of!
Maybe our recent win against West Brom was more impressive than I first thought!!

Our run-in is pretty straightforward if we make sure it is! It's up to us to fuck up royally, and whilst we're perfectly capable of fucking up royally, we really need to fucking focus this year on making sure last season doesn't happen again!

it might sound daft, but maybe us 'only' being 4 points ahead of ArseAnal won't allow complacency to set in, and all the nonsense and inevitability that went with a 10 point (mind the) gap last year!!!!
Possibly a smaller gap will prove to be a blessing in disguise.
Plus I don't expect AVB to be linked with the England job anytime soon, and effectively ruin everything!
Click to expand...
Why do you think it's only us who lose stoopid games? We wouldn't be 4th if that was the case.

I recognise you probably don't really believe this, but it is the way many Spurs talk, and it baffles me.

Woolwich have lost at home to Swansea, they lost away to Norwich, Liverpool lost at home to Villa, etc etc. Everton give away points like drunken sailors with draw after draw in games they should win, eg Villa.

All teams, even Utd have poor results. I bet Utd still can't believe they lost to us at home. OF course Utd have much less bad results, as they are easily the best team, and have dominated the Prem throughout its 20+ years existence.

Were it not for the billionaires of City and Chelsea the league would probably be the most uncompetitive of all the major leagues.
 
Éperons said:
that there really is a strong correlation between goal differential and table position only for the top three places. Starting with fourth place, things get rather volatile
Click to expand...
I took absolute value sums instead of regular sums when taking the average to try and tease out the volatility. After all, any movement from zero is important, and it's unfair that two radical departures in opposite directions can cancel each other out:
VuvEk9P.png

As you can see from the final column, over the course of nine seasons, first, second, and third place had, basically, the first, second, and third goal differentials. Then things get crazy, leading to the middle of the table, where, on average, clubs have goal differentials that are 1–3 positions different (better or worse) than their final positions in the table. Things calm down toward the relegation candidates, but it is still more volatile than at the top of the table, suggesting that it's not just edge effects that tell us what we want to know about the Top 3.
 
Greaves_357 said:
Why do you think it's only us who lose stoopid games? We wouldn't be 4th if that was the case. Woolwich have lost at home to Swansea.,,,
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I guess it just always feels like that!
When ArseAnal won 1-0 at home to Stoke last week, all I could think of was how WE couldn't break them down, and had to settle for 0-0, then again, when we were beating Swansea, I'm sure plenty gooners wondered why THEY manage to lose at home to them, so I totally see your point!

I still think Wigan at home will hurt us most come the end of the season, unless we pull off an unlikely win against Chelsea or Man City..
 
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