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Manager Thomas Frank
- Thread starter The Fighting Cock
- Start date
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Looking good, tiny.
It's not an assumption - it's statistical fact. And quite a stark one at that.
The issue is that you are assuming I've drawn a conclusion about the relative merits of the respective managers during these period which I have categorically not. That wrong assumption is making you (and others) weirdly hostile to statistical facts on metrics which are used by our own Club to measure performance. No one would be more aware of these stats than Frank himself and the reasons for them (our injuries in a critical front line).
Sheesh.
How you talk here isn't how someone of sound of mind would typically write.
I'm talking about this assumption: "were underperforming our Expected Points largely due to some terrible individual defensive errors."
Weirdly hostile? Where is the hostility in my post? You seem defensive.
Simons arrived later than Frank, and his thread already features enough number of extremely critical posts going as far as people suggesting that he could/should be dumped in January. A slight majority if not more were fed up with Tel as early as August after that PSG game, despite him arriving to a shambles of a team in the middle of last season. Just two examples off the top of my head to illustrate a more general point.
People keep disagreeing with each other in those threads, but as far as I can tell there are very few instances of trying to limit the discussion to certain suggestions while declaring others to be out of the question. I'm sure the tea lady would be discussed in the same open way if she had a thread of her own here. Because that's what common sense dictates really.
This doesn't apply to managers though, with people acting like the club with all it has is there to serve the manager and not the other way around. Without going into some armchair speculation regarding the potential psychological underpinnings of such a special treatment, I'll simply say that it is very weird.
People keep disagreeing with each other in those threads, but as far as I can tell there are very few instances of trying to limit the discussion to certain suggestions while declaring others to be out of the question. I'm sure the tea lady would be discussed in the same open way if she had a thread of her own here. Because that's what common sense dictates really.
This doesn't apply to managers though, with people acting like the club with all it has is there to serve the manager and not the other way around. Without going into some armchair speculation regarding the potential psychological underpinnings of such a special treatment, I'll simply say that it is very weird.
If you don't care to remember the defensive errors made by Romero at the start of last season I'd suggest you go look at his player thread at the time, and I'd also suggest you watch the Brighton loss where no less than 3 calamitous errors were made that lost us that game where we were well in control. But the simple point is when you are putting up numbers like we were through the first 12 games last year you expect a better points tally because you are creating more opportunities and denying them to your opponents. errors largely make up this discrepancy - just like we somehow only lost 0-1 to Chelsea this season when they could and should have put 5 past us but for their errors in finishing.
Things like this, maybe?
What on earth is "convenient" about a cut off point that matches where we are currently at in this current season?
Unless, as I've already inferred, you are being weirdly hostile because you think I'm making a point about the relative merits of the respective managers (which, again, I'm not).
All this guff about "assumptions" and "opinion" when we're dealing with straight statistical fact is weird and feels hostile because you're not picking a fight with opinion - you're picking a fight with facts.
Neither of which is going to help win a cunt off with the likes of Papa Feels because, essentially, he's right - we aren't playing as well as we were this time last year. He's just not acknowledging the many contexts around that - not least the fact that Solanke, Madders and Kulu haven't set foot on the pitch.
I was answering some guy who said we played well at the beginning of last season and were unlucky to lose points in a number of matches.What's this supposed to mean?
If you think you're helping or supporting Frank by denying obvious statistical fact then I'd gently suggest you're this guy:
Acknowledging that Frank's early tenure is suffering understandable teething problems is just being normal. Neither you nor Papafeels are being normal.
I just asked which matches? Because I saw the lot and I cannot recall a single point we lost through bad luck. Not one.
i can remember a couple of games when we lucked out massively tho
This article from November 3 last year is a fairly good refresher course in what was happening this time last year with Spurs.
I watched every goal Spurs have conceded to discover the problem - and I found it
Tottenham Hotspur are playing well but losing games anyway - but this time, the problem might not be ‘Spursiness’ at all, but a specific player...
www.3addedminutes.com
TLDR - this post sums it up.
But you are also posting on the basis that after any length of time judgement, and some scathing has validity or should not be met with ferocious defence.
You said it, very weird.
Pace,power and composure undoes Woolwich. At this moment, nothing else.
Stifling them only works with the game even.
The one hope we have on Sunday is to score first, and preferably late in a game where we have made it very hard for them.
Widely tbat would mean a back 5 or a midfield 5, but without a striker who can hold up the ball, a la Kane or the very best, Berbatov, it's a very tall order.
Stifling them only works with the game even.
The one hope we have on Sunday is to score first, and preferably late in a game where we have made it very hard for them.
Widely tbat would mean a back 5 or a midfield 5, but without a striker who can hold up the ball, a la Kane or the very best, Berbatov, it's a very tall order.
Undeniably easier on the eyes?
Most of the time we couldn't string more than two passes together and and couldn't defend at all. It was just chaos.
And this is why so many people claim you talk shit, and are.
No one is claiming that the football we are playing is always good.
Its been a mixture, of poor, meh, okay, and sometimes good.
So you're going around being smarmy and sarky at people, because you are making assumptions on things that were never said or implied.
This why I don't care for anything you have to say, as you yourself haven't got a fecking clue or understood a single thing people have been saying to you.
No one is happy with the way we are playing, unlike you though, most of us understand the reasons for this, and it's not something thing that is going to be fixes over night.
So I don't give a feck what you have to say.
Your lack of comprehension is God tier.
We will just have to wait until we start to address the problems in the squad and then see what's what.
And you have neen told this time and time again.
Just fuck off and support another team if you can't get this in to your head.
Not wanting to sack Frank straight away, doesn't mean we enjoy the football, it just means we understand the situation at the club and everything surrounding it.
Now fuck off you cesspit of an excuse forca human. I am not interested in anything have say.
Never will.
We were only 1.5 points below our xP through 12 games last season.
We completely blew away Brentford and United statistically, but you can't get any more than 3 points in a game. So while those performances translate well to the cumulative totals of xG and xGA you displayed, it doesn't have the same impact on xP.
That is your opinion. I disagree with this assumption. xG and xGA do not know the current score of the match. The players on the field do. If you score a low probability chance and are up 1-0 (let's say xG and xGA are 0.5 each) and then lock the rest of the game down (0.2xg/xga each for the rest of the game), xG and xGA do not know the difference. It will see 0.7 xg/xgA each at the end of the game and determine that draw is the most likely outcome followed by an equal chance of winning for both teams. Compare that to scoring that same chance and going up 1-0, but you don't lock the game down and the rest of the game ends up as 1.5xG/1.3xGA for a total of 2.0xg/1.8xGA. Statistically, xG thinks you have a better chance to win the 2nd match. But it's wrong because there is more variation when xG/xGA is higher and the current score is 1-0, which xG does not know.
In that first outcome, after the 1st goal is scored, an xG/xGA of 0.2 each means you have an 85% chance to win the match.
In the 2nd outcome, after the 1st goal is scored, an xG/xGa of 1.5/1.3 means you have a 68% chance to win the match. However, your xGD actually increases, as does your xPoints.
xG does not comprehend game management at all.
It's 12 matches vs 11, which isn't where we are currently at. We all know that if the 12th match was dreadful statistically, you guys would have stopped at 11 matches. Our 13th and especially the 14th match last season were dreadful statistically. We'll see if the comparisons continue at that point. Maybe you just went by calendar date and it was an oversight.
I haven't disagreed with any facts.
Again - what is this supposed to mean?
You're having a fight with an enemy that only exists in some paranoid and weirdly hostile area of your brain.
TLDR if you lose points because of one of your players, that's not bad luck thats shit play
10 years ago our keeper suddenly decided to let in 30 yarders through his hands. He was playing shit. We lost points and games because he was shit not through bad luck. and no one complained about bad luck either
bad luck is when the oppo scores goals that should have been disallowed
or when the ref wrongly disaloows our goals
or when we get a wrong red card
or we pepper their goal, hit the bar and post, and its one of those days when we'll never score.
Not one point before Xmas was lost like that. Not one.
And certainly none after Xmas either.
Romero being shit and giving goals away is not bad luck.
Closer to 15 years if you're referring to Gomes. He was so out of sorts that we replaced him with a 40yo Brad Friedel.
Fuck, what happened to the last 15 years? It's like a time warp opened up.
Look man, I see statistics on here manipulated over and over to meet someone's needs where all the convenient things are mentioned and all the inconvenient things are left out.Again - what is this supposed to mean?
You're having a fight with an enemy that only exists in some paranoid and weirdly hostile area of your brain.
I actually like statistics - it was my best math subject in school - but on this forum it's fucking tiring and while xG and xGa are useful, people are starting to think they are more important than actual goals and assists and points, which is fucking crazy because those are the point of the game. xG/xGA are just a few variables, of which there are many that determine the outcome of the match.
So if I see a discrepancy, I'll call it out. It probably wasn't on purpose in this case, but if you are going to use statistics correctly, they cannot be manipulated. And there was no reason to use a different sample size last season (12 games) compared to the 11 that have occurred this season. 12 games also happens to be the exact time when we fell off a cliff last season statistically, so naturally it is a convenient cutoff point for certain people. From week 13 to the end of the calendar year, our xG/xGA was 10.4/14.5. Then from the new year until the end of season was 22.9/29.4. Whether you tried it or not, it IS convenient.
Anyways, I'll check back in after matchweek 17, when we lost to Liverpool 3-6 with xG of 1.3 to xGA of 5.6 last season, but I'm guessing papafeels will move onto something else at that point and we will no longer be comparing last season's xG/xGA with this season.
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Not sure why this thread even exists. I think Frank is doing ok and things will get better as players come back from injury and players like Simons get used to the Premier League. We're 5th in the league and still very much in contention for the CL spots, we're making reasonable if not outstanding progress in the CL and we've still got the FA Cup to come.
His first NLD is on Sunday and we have every reason to hope for the win.
COYS
His first NLD is on Sunday and we have every reason to hope for the win.
COYS
To answer your question the 13th game was home to Fulham where we had 1.01 xG to Fulham's 1.57.
The 12th game this season will, of course, be away to Scum. I'd be thrilled but very surprised if this was to end with us outperforming Scum on most of the key metrics.
But the real reason I stopped at 12 weeks was because this was the City game where Vicario was injured which was of course the beginning of the end of our season because most of our starting back 5 were injured for the rest of the year.
PapaFeels thesis is that we were much better this time last year. This is undeniably statistically true. It also has a lot to do with the fact that most of Frank's starting front 4 have been injured all year. That is where the arguments should begin and end - not by this bizarre insistence that, somehow, having less shots and conceding more shots is not of relevance. That is laughable bullshit.
The real question is how will Frank get us performing when he has his best players available - like most of our team was more or else available for the first 12 weeks of last season. Idiots like Papa Feels won't give him this grace.
See~ I don't even have to post to expose this fraud.