Competition Top Four Here We Come: EPL Fixtures Released 18 June 2024 at 09:00

[SeeSpotRun]

My "supercomputer" (dodgy simulation on my home PC) table prediction:

Team	Points	GD	Finishing Range
Man City	86.8	+54	1-3
Liverpool	81.9	+46	1-4
Woolwich	81.6	+48	1-4
Spurs	68.3	+38	3-8
Newcastle	66.6	+23	3-9
Chelsea	65.8	+24	3-9
Aston Villa	62.7	+13	4-10
Brighton	60.1	+11	4-11
Forest	57.2	+6	5-12
Fulham	52.0	-3	7-14
Bournemouth	50.3	-5	8-15
Man Utd	48.0	-8	8-16
Brentford	47.0	-10	9-16
West Ham	45.8	-15	9-17
Palace	38.8	-16	12-18
Wolves	37.4	-21	12-18
Everton	36.3	-24	13-18
Leicester	33.5	-36	14-18
Ipswich	18.8	-61	18-20
Southampton	17.0	-64	19-20

Match results simulated based on team form over the last 48 rounds, plus an subjective adjustment for the most recent transfer window. Doesn't take into account current injury lists or potential points deductions. Finishing ranges are where 90% of the simulations predict.

 

[MemphisWill]

My "supercomputer" (dodgy simulation on my home PC) table prediction:

Team	Points	GD	Finishing Range
Man City	86.8	+54	1-3
Liverpool	81.9	+46	1-4
Woolwich	81.6	+48	1-4
Spurs	68.3	+38	3-8
Newcastle	66.6	+23	3-9
Chelsea	65.8	+24	3-9
Aston Villa	62.7	+13	4-10
Brighton	60.1	+11	4-11
Forest	57.2	+6	5-12
Fulham	52.0	-3	7-14
Bournemouth	50.3	-5	8-15
Man Utd	48.0	-8	8-16
Brentford	47.0	-10	9-16
West Ham	45.8	-15	9-17
Palace	38.8	-16	12-18
Wolves	37.4	-21	12-18
Everton	36.3	-24	13-18
Leicester	33.5	-36	14-18
Ipswich	18.8	-61	18-20
Southampton	17.0	-64	19-20

Match results simulated based on team form over the last 48 rounds, plus an subjective adjustment for the most recent transfer window. Doesn't take into account current injury lists or potential points deductions. Finishing ranges are where 90% of the simulations predict.

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So what's the value of the transfer window modifiers?

 

[SeeSpotRun]

So what's the value of the transfer window modifiers?

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+0.3 xG per game: Spurs, Brighton, Fulham
+0.1 xG per game: Brentford
-0.2 xG per game: Palace, Everton
-0.3 xG per game: Bournemouth, Wolves
No change: everyone else.

Loosely based on https://www.givemesport.com/every-premier-league-clubs-summer-transfer-window-ranked/

 

[El Noel]

Here are the potential end of season fixtures:

​

Thu​	17/04/2024​			QF EL
Sun​	20/04/2025​			NOTTINGHAM FOREST	H​
Sat​	26/04/2025​			LIVERPOOL	A​
Sat​	26/04/2025​			QF FA CUP
Thu​	01/05/2025​			SF EL
Sun​	04/05/2025​			WEST HAM UNITED	A​
Thu​	08/05/2025​			SF EL
Sun​	11/05/2025​			CRYSTAL PALACE	H​
Sat​	17/05/2025​			FINAL FA CUP
Sun​	18/05/2025​			ASTON VILLA	A​
Wed​	21/05/2025​			FINAL EL
Sun​	25/05/2025​	16:00​		FULHAM	H​

If we get through to both finals then the Villa game on May 18 will be brought forward to midweek after the Palace game on May 11.

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Is this like invisible ink to anyone else or just me?

(Using an iPhone in dark mode)

 

[Shadydan]

Is this like invisible ink to anyone else or just me?

(Using an iPhone in dark mode)

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lol yeah was gonna say, us dark mode users can't see shit, every time sudoku posts these stats I keep meaning to tell him

 

[Gatsby]

It'd be incredibly Tottenham like to end Man City's unbeaten streak, beat top of UCL table Villa only to go and hand Palace and Ipswich their first wins of the season.

 

[Shadydan]

I don't know what to do about the matter. Maybe Admin can suggest something?
Incidentally, why have you decided to use dark mode?

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Dark mode levels above light mode

 

[SameOldSpurs]

I don't know what to do about the matter. Maybe Admin can suggest something?
Incidentally, why did you guys decide to use dark mode?

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Why not change the text colour?

Used to be fine but recently has been black and unreadable, and I like seeing your stat posts but will not turn off dark mode for them.

 

[White Hart]

+0.3 xG per game: Spurs, Brighton, Fulham
+0.1 xG per game: Brentford
-0.2 xG per game: Palace, Everton
-0.3 xG per game: Bournemouth, Wolves
No change: everyone else.

Loosely based on https://www.givemesport.com/every-premier-league-clubs-summer-transfer-window-ranked/

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Haven’t got a clue about all this xg stuff we are being given by Sky etc. Absolute load of rubbish. Same as stats like One team has had 78 %possession in the last 5 minutes

 

[SeeSpotRun]

Haven’t got a clue about all this xg stuff we are being given by Sky etc. Absolute load of rubbish. Same as stats like One team has had 78 %possession in the last 5 minutes

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It seems you're lost and wandered into the wrong thread

 

[sudoku]

Our next 10 games in blue and yellow

11​

IPSWICH (BURNLEY)

H​

H​

2-1​

W​

Chelsea

H​

1-4​

L​

12​

MANCHESTER CITY

A​

A​

3-3​

D​

Wolves

A​

1-2​

L​

13​

FULHAM

H​

H​

2-0​

W​

Aston Villa

H​

1-2​

L​

14​

BOURNEMOUTH

A​

A​

2-0​

W​

Manchester City

A​

3-3​

D​

15​

CHELSEA

H​

H​

1-4​

L​

West Ham United

H​

1-2​

L​

16​

SOUTHAMPTON (SHEFF UTD)

A​

A​

3-0​

W​

Newcastle United

H​

4-1​

W​

17​

LIVERPOOL

H​

H​

2-1​

W​

Nottingham Forest

A​

2-0​

W​

18​

NOTTINGHAM FOREST

A​

A​

2-0​

W​

Everton

H​

2-1​

W​

19​

WOLVES

H​

H​

1-2​

L​

Brighton

A​

2-4​

L​

20​

NEWCASTLE

H​

H​

4-1​

W​

Bournemouth

H​

3-1​

W​

11​

IPSWICH (BURNLEY)

H​

H​

2-1​

W​

Chelsea

H​

1-4​

L​

12​

MANCHESTER CITY

A​

A​

3-3​

D​

Wolves

A​

1-2​

L​

13​

FULHAM

H​

H​

2-0​

W​

Aston Villa

H​

1-2​

L​

14​

BOURNEMOUTH

A​

A​

2-0​

W​

Manchester City

A​

3-3​

D​

15​

CHELSEA

H​

H​

1-4​

L​

West Ham United

H​

1-2​

L​

16​

SOUTHAMPTON (SHEFF UTD)

A​

A​

3-0​

W​

Newcastle United

H​

4-1​

W​

17​

LIVERPOOL

H​

H​

2-1​

W​

Nottingham Forest

A​

2-0​

W​

18​

NOTTINGHAM FOREST

A​

A​

2-0​

W​

Everton

H​

2-1​

W​

19​

WOLVES

H​

H​

1-2​

L​

Brighton

A​

2-4​

L​

20​

NEWCASTLE

H​

H​

4-1​

W​

Bournemouth

H​

3-1​

W​

Shadydan

 

[Shadydan]

Our next 10 games in blue and yellow

​

11​

IPSWICH (BURNLEY)

H​

H​

2-1​

W​

Chelsea

H​

1-4​

L​

12​

MANCHESTER CITY

A​

A​

3-3​

D​

Wolves

A​

1-2​

L​

13​

FULHAM

H​

H​

2-0​

W​

Aston Villa

H​

1-2​

L​

14​

BOURNEMOUTH

A​

A​

2-0​

W​

Manchester City

A​

3-3​

D​

15​

CHELSEA

H​

H​

1-4​

L​

West Ham United

H​

1-2​

L​

16​

SOUTHAMPTON (SHEFF UTD)

A​

A​

3-0​

W​

Newcastle United

H​

4-1​

W​

17​

LIVERPOOL

H​

H​

2-1​

W​

Nottingham Forest

A​

2-0​

W​

18​

NOTTINGHAM FOREST

A​

A​

2-0​

W​

Everton

H​

2-1​

W​

19​

WOLVES

H​

H​

1-2​

L​

Brighton

A​

2-4​

L​

20​

NEWCASTLE

H​

H​

4-1​

W​

Bournemouth

H​

3-1​

W​

​

11​

IPSWICH (BURNLEY)

H​

H​

2-1​

W​

Chelsea

H​

1-4​

L​

12​

MANCHESTER CITY

A​

A​

3-3​

D​

Wolves

A​

1-2​

L​

13​

FULHAM

H​

H​

2-0​

W​

Aston Villa

H​

1-2​

L​

14​

BOURNEMOUTH

A​

A​

2-0​

W​

Manchester City

A​

3-3​

D​

15​

CHELSEA

H​

H​

1-4​

L​

West Ham United

H​

1-2​

L​

16​

SOUTHAMPTON (SHEFF UTD)

A​

A​

3-0​

W​

Newcastle United

H​

4-1​

W​

17​

LIVERPOOL

H​

H​

2-1​

W​

Nottingham Forest

A​

2-0​

W​

18​

NOTTINGHAM FOREST

A​

A​

2-0​

W​

Everton

H​

2-1​

W​

19​

WOLVES

H​

H​

1-2​

L​

Brighton

A​

2-4​

L​

20​

NEWCASTLE

H​

H​

4-1​

W​

Bournemouth

H​

3-1​

W​

Shadydan

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My guy

 

[Shadydan]

Both colours? Which colour was best?

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Both sexy, can't choose.

Yellow very vibrant
Blue very statement like

 

[SameOldSpurs]

Both colours? Which colour was best?

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Blue. Yellow looks too much like a warning.

 

[sudoku]

Late December is looking a bit dodgy if other teams keep up their current good form..

EFL​	Thu​	EFL​	20:00​	SKY​	MANCHESTER UNITED	H​
EPL​	Sun​	22/12/2024​	16:30​	SKY​	LIVERPOOL	H​
EPL​	Thu​	26/12/2024​	15:00​	AMZN​	NOTTINGHAM FOREST	A​
EPL​	Sun​	29/12/2024​	15:00​		WOLVES	H​
EPL​	Sat​	04/01/2025​	12:30​		NEWCASTLE	H​
EFL​	Wed​	07/01/2025​		SKY​	SF EFL CUP
FA CUP​	Sat​	11/01/2025​			R3 FA CUP

​

 

[El Noel]

Late December is looking a bit dodgy if other teams keep up their current good form..

​

EFL​	Thu​	19/12/2024​	20:00​	SKY​	MANCHESTER UNITED EFL	H​
EPL​	Sun​	22/12/2024​	16:30​	SKY​	LIVERPOOL	H​
EPL​	Thu​	26/12/2024​	15:00​	AMZN​	NOTTINGHAM FOREST	A​
EPL​	Sun​	29/12/2024​	15:00​		WOLVES	H​
EPL​	Sat​	04/01/2025​	12:30​		NEWCASTLE	H​
EFL​	Wed​	07/01/2025​		SKY​	SF EFL CUP
FA CUP​	Sat​	11/01/2025​			R3 FA CUP

Click to shrink...

Back to black

 

[sudoku]

Back to black

Click to shrink...

​

EFL​	Thu​	EFL​	20:00​	SKY​	MANCHESTER UNITED	H​
EPL​	Sun​	22/12/2024​	16:30​	SKY​	LIVERPOOL	H​
EPL​	Thu​	26/12/2024​	15:00​	AMZN​	NOTTINGHAM FOREST	A​
EPL​	Sun​	29/12/2024​	15:00​		WOLVES	H​
EPL​	Sat​	04/01/2025​	12:30​		NEWCASTLE	H​
EFL​	Wed​	07/01/2025​		SKY​	SF EFL CUP
FA CUP​	Sat​	11/01/2025​			R3 FA CUP

Can you see it now?

 

[El Noel]

​

EFL​	Thu​	EFL​	20:00​	SKY​	MANCHESTER UNITED	H​
EPL​	Sun​	22/12/2024​	16:30​	SKY​	LIVERPOOL	H​
EPL​	Thu​	26/12/2024​	15:00​	AMZN​	NOTTINGHAM FOREST	A​
EPL​	Sun​	29/12/2024​	15:00​		WOLVES	H​
EPL​	Sat​	04/01/2025​	12:30​		NEWCASTLE	H​
EFL​	Wed​	07/01/2025​		SKY​	SF EFL CUP
FA CUP​	Sat​	11/01/2025​			R3 FA CUP

Can you see it now?

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Perfectly, thank you kind sir

 

[SeeSpotRun]

My "supercomputer" (dodgy simulation on my home PC) table prediction:

Team	Points	GD	Finishing Range
Man City	86.8	+54	1-3
Liverpool	81.9	+46	1-4
Woolwich	81.6	+48	1-4
Spurs	68.3	+38	3-8
Newcastle	66.6	+23	3-9
Chelsea	65.8	+24	3-9
Aston Villa	62.7	+13	4-10
Brighton	60.1	+11	4-11
Forest	57.2	+6	5-12
Fulham	52.0	-3	7-14
Bournemouth	50.3	-5	8-15
Man Utd	48.0	-8	8-16
Brentford	47.0	-10	9-16
West Ham	45.8	-15	9-17
Palace	38.8	-16	12-18
Wolves	37.4	-21	12-18
Everton	36.3	-24	13-18
Leicester	33.5	-36	14-18
Ipswich	18.8	-61	18-20
Southampton	17.0	-64	19-20

Match results simulated based on team form over the last 48 rounds, plus an subjective adjustment for the most recent transfer window. Doesn't take into account current injury lists or potential points deductions. Finishing ranges are where 90% of the simulations predict.

Click to shrink...

Ipswich result has put a dent in this for us, now showing most likely finish 7th spot. My home PC supercomputer forecast updated after round 11 results:

Team	Expected Points	GD	xPts Range (90%)	Finishing Range (90%)	Opta xPts
Liverpool	83.7	+48	74-93	1-3	85.6
Man City	82.8	+49	73-92	1-3	82.5
Woolwich	78.1	+41	68-87	1-5	74.4
Chelsea	69.9	+32	60-80	3-8	66.3
Newcastle	69.9	+28	60-80	3-8	62.3
Brighton	64.6	+18	54-75	4-10	59.4
Spurs	63.1	+29	53-73	4-10	57.4
Aston Villa	60.8	+10	50-71	5-11	58.2
Fulham	55.5	+3	45-66	6-13	54.0
Man Utd	52.7	+1	43-63	7-14	54.3
Forest	52.7	-1	43-63	7-14	50.1
Bournemouth	51.1	-3	41-61	8-15	51.3
Brentford	47.6	-11	37-58	9-16	48.3
West Ham	43.4	-18	34-53	10-17	45.4
Wolves	37.7	-21	28-48	12-18	34.7
Everton	36.8	-22	28-46	13-18	39.1
Palace	33.9	-23	25-44	14-19	39.2
Leicester	29.7	-44	21-39	15-19	33.3
Ipswich	26.5	-48	18-36	16-19	31.2
Southampton	15.0	-67	8-22	19-20	24.0

Time to start getting some consistency and converting underlying stats into points.

 

[John Duncan]

Ipswich result has put a dent in this for us, now showing most likely finish 7th spot. My home PC supercomputer forecast updated after round 11 results:

Team	Expected Points	GD	xPts Range (90%)	Finishing Range (90%)	Opta xPts
Liverpool	83.7	+48	74-93	1-3	85.6
Man City	82.8	+49	73-92	1-3	82.5
Woolwich	78.1	+41	68-87	1-5	74.4
Chelsea	69.9	+32	60-80	3-8	66.3
Newcastle	69.9	+28	60-80	3-8	62.3
Brighton	64.6	+18	54-75	4-10	59.4
Spurs	63.1	+29	53-73	4-10	57.4
Aston Villa	60.8	+10	50-71	5-11	58.2
Fulham	55.5	+3	45-66	6-13	54.0
Man Utd	52.7	+1	43-63	7-14	54.3
Forest	52.7	-1	43-63	7-14	50.1
Bournemouth	51.1	-3	41-61	8-15	51.3
Brentford	47.6	-11	37-58	9-16	48.3
West Ham	43.4	-18	34-53	10-17	45.4
Wolves	37.7	-21	28-48	12-18	34.7
Everton	36.8	-22	28-46	13-18	39.1
Palace	33.9	-23	25-44	14-19	39.2
Leicester	29.7	-44	21-39	15-19	33.3
Ipswich	26.5	-48	18-36	16-19	31.2
Southampton	15.0	-67	8-22	19-20	24.0

Time to start getting some consistency and converting underlying stats into points.

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Good work; but .

Any modelling derived outcomes
(regardless of however many variables) relies on at least some degree of “ predictability “ . I.e. some semblance of logic .

Trust me SSR ; we support a club that doesn’t do the P-word . For some reason . It’s who we are …..

In other words;

If you value your PC : just run the potential final league standings without including fixtures involving our club; it’ll end up melting into a blob of plastic and molten copper otherwise.

Exhibit A ) lose at home to ITFC ; next game do the deed away against CITEH .

COYS !