Vincent Janssen

[sammyspurs]

Juicy Sushi

Come on mate you've said we are scoring less, yet we have scored 6 more than this time last season......you've addressed my posts right up until that one.

 

[Guido 🇺🇦]

Here's the problem with the scenario you describe. Eriksen is a threat, but it's still not likely to go in, and he's also, by taking the shot, not actually making the pass you describe. That's what's particularly notable about Eriksen this year. He's not making those passes when the chance presents. And that is costing us.

I am afraid that the numbers/stats posted don't back up that the pass is on instead of shooting.

 

[Juicy Sushi]

I am afraid that the numbers/stats posted don't back up that the pass is on instead of shooting.

I rather feel they do. Eriksen isn't passing into the box, but he is shooting from just outside it (notice how few throughballs he's attempted vs the map of where he is shooting from). And he's not scoring with those shots. It isn't helping us.

 

[Super Jan Fan]

Something worth considering:


Strikers need to get passed to when in shooting positions so they can do striker type stuff. So far, that isn't happening for Vincent. What is not getting talked about is that this is also happening to Harry Kane this year. In previous seasons Kane was a 4-5 shot per 90 shooter. Last year he took the second most shots in Europe after Christiano Ronaldo. Good strikers are high volume shooters.

This year, he's average half his normal output (around 2.5 shots per 90). Yet Spurs are still shooting bucket loads. Where are the shots coming from?


Eriksen is shooting a LOT. Like more than 4 shots a game. From really bad locations. He's freakishly accurate, but no one in the world scores in high volume from where he shoots from. Dele Alli and Son Heung-Min are also both shooting more (1 shot per 90 more each than last year).

The lack of passing to strikers (see the lack of throughballs by Eriksen) in favour of shooting by our midfielders is the issue. Janssen is struggling, and there are reasons to worry. But Kane is also struggling, and we're not noticing because Dele and Son are actually having ridiculous seasons.

TLDR;

Spurs have a problem. Janssen is a symptom, not a cause.

This is really good. I suspect that Poch told the midfielders that they need to chip in with more goals this year, which is not a bad thing, so long as it isn't at the expense of the strikers scoring, else there is no net gain.

I have to agree that Janssen is not getting great service, which coupled with everything else is a recipe for disaster for him (and us). I truly believe he has real quality we just aren't seeing it.

 

[sammyspurs]

This is my big problem with stats

They are too convenient. I actually think we were better the first half of last season. More fluidity and pressing more often. Yet we had scored less than now.

I could look at the stats, and say "we are much more entertaining this season", yet for me thats not the case.

I dont think we are worse. I think we are more patient, and for periods in a game, that can be static and less entertaining. But I like our approach, and see a maturity in it.

Its so basic to look at the numbers, and think that gives the whole story.

 

[Boltonspur]

Spurs have a problem. Janssen is a symptom, not a cause.

I find you are claiming things were said that were not said. And the naked eye is a notoriously unreliable witness. But more to the point, you are missing my point. We can play better than we are. Given how tight things are this year, we can't really afford not to improve.

Any manager will say that there is room for improvement. There always is. I'm not missing your point at all. I am disagreeing with an assertion that Spurs have a problem. Which you absolutely did say.

 

[sammyspurs]

I rather feel they do. Eriksen isn't passing into the box, but he is shooting from just outside it (notice how few throughballs he's attempted vs the map of where he is shooting from). And he's not scoring with those shots. It isn't helping us.

Yet we've scored 6 more goals in the PL than this time last year.....not sure why you wont address that.

Is it not relevant to your point that we are scoring less?

 

[Boltonspur]

I rather feel they do. Eriksen isn't passing into the box, but he is shooting from just outside it (notice how few throughballs he's attempted vs the map of where he is shooting from). And he's not scoring with those shots. It isn't helping us.

Again you have two people, both knowledgable with stats, who can't agree on what they actually show.

 

[Super Jan Fan]

"Having a pop" as you say, is actually a bad choice because it wastes an attacking opportunity. Football is a low-scoring sport. It's HARD to create shots. Getting the ball deep into the final third, and then choosing to do something with a very low chance of succeeding, instead of doing something with a much higher chance, is a waste of what are limited opportunities.

Fans like long shots because when they come off the look cool. Good teams don't take long shots because they're a waste of the limited chances they get. Literally every top attacking team shoots less from range and works to build chances closer to goal.

We want to win games. You win games by scoring more goals than the other team. Doing things which give you less chance to score goals means you win less. Ergo taking lots of long shots means we win less. I am not a fan of winning less.

I agree with all of this. The only reason why we get away with it is through both volume of shots and our goalscorers having extremely good ability to hit the ball, not just on target, but often just inside the post. Stats may not reflect this as some shots go "off target" so count against even though they were only inches away from being an un-savable shot just inside the post.

We need goals from across the team, but we also need to provide opportunities for our strikers, especially when they work hard to get into good positions. Or whoever else is in good position (but of course our strikers should be the best at this) - the Chelsea game is actually a good example. We didn't score with our long shots. Neither did Chelsea. Both goals were scored close to goal. So that would seem to backup the point made by Juicy Sushi .

 

[Guido 🇺🇦]

I rather feel they do. Eriksen isn't passing into the box, but he is shooting from just outside it (notice how few throughballs he's attempted vs the map of where he is shooting from). And he's not scoring with those shots. It isn't helping us.

But it DOSEN'T show if the pass was on, if it's not on he can't pass. Again take Chelsea as an example Kane was marked out the game, the pass wasn't on.
EDIT: The pass to Kane wasn't on BUT the pass to Alli was twice!!

 

[sammyspurs]

But it DOSEN'T show if the pass was on, if it's not on he can't pass. Again take Chelsea as an example Kane was marked out the game, the pass wasn't on.

Eriksen has also got 7 assists and 5 goals in 19 games. Two assists the other night by passing into the box.

 

[Guido 🇺🇦]

Eriksen has also got 7 assists and 5 goals in 19 games. Two assists the other night by passing into the box.

hah, yes, just edited my post to reflect. However, I hate assist stats. But in the Chelsea game hopefully proves the point even though a one game sample.

 

[Super Jan Fan]

Its called team spirt, organised, luck and having better players. I dont want to burst your taticle bubble, but its 11 against 11.. Its not a matter of process. Conte does process and likes to fill areas with players and , everyone behind the ball and knock it long to Costa. if this is what your are promoting, you can keep it.This is not football, its what ruined Italian footgall.

Well, 11 + Mike Dean V 11 in some games...

p.s. can we get a Mike Dean smiley?

 

[Super Jan Fan]

Any manager will say that there is room for improvement. There always is. I'm not missing your point at all. I am disagreeing with an assertion that Spurs have a problem. Which you absolutely did say.

I'm sure Juicy Sushi can defend him or herself on this point. But I read that to be in reference to the situation with Janssen - it is the Janssen thread, right; which is absolutely spot on. He isn't getting very good service and that is a problem because we have a striker not scoring goals as a result, and of course his confidence is going downhill fast and means we have no backup for Kane if he gets injured, we potentially ruin a talented player and lose money on the transfer also. That is a problem for Spurs as well as Janseen the individual.

 

[Boltonspur]

I'm sure Juicy Sushi can defend him or herself on this point. But I read that to be in reference to the situation with Janssen - it is the Janssen thread, right; which is absolutely spot on. He isn't getting very good service and that is a problem because we have a striker not scoring goals as a result, and of course his confidence is going downhill fast and means we have no backup for Kane if he gets injured, we potentially ruin a talented player and lose money on the transfer also. That is a problem for Spurs as well as Janseen the individual.

And I'm coming from the wider picture- the team. Spurs don't have a problem. Janssen does. We found a way to get through the period when Kane was injured last time out. We should be looking for a striker in the window to act as back up for Kane if Janssen isn't cutting the mustard-& he isn't at the moment.

 

[sammyspurs]

I'm sure Juicy Sushi can defend him or herself on this point. But I read that to be in reference to the situation with Janssen - it is the Janssen thread, right; which is absolutely spot on. He isn't getting very good service and that is a problem because we have a striker not scoring goals as a result, and of course his confidence is going downhill fast and means we have no backup for Kane if he gets injured, we potentially ruin a talented player and lose money on the transfer also. That is a problem for Spurs as well as Janseen the individual.

I think the vast majority feel the same about Vinny.

Basically, service to him hasnt been great.
Feel for him, but he needs to start getting into the box.
Probably can come good in the right set up.

However, its just plain wrong to say we are scoring less. The facts say otherwise, despite what the heatmaps are showing, so to speak.

Stats are useful facts in their basic form...ie, Spurs have scored 39 goals this season, compared to 33 in the same period last season. But thats where it ends for me.

Im not going to champion an opinion that we are much much better this season and use that to prove anything.
You need to take things at face value sometimes.

We've scored more as a team, not less. BUT, we could score more if we play our strikers in more often.
However, its not the shots from our midfielders or runs into the box from Alli and Son that Id sacrifice, its the passing backwards when there is a very good chance to go forward.

 

[Super Jan Fan]

And I'm coming from the wider picture- the team. Spurs don't have a problem. Janssen does. We found a way to get through the period when Kane was injured last time out. We should be looking for a striker in the window to act as back up for Kane if Janssen isn't cutting the mustard-& he isn't at the moment.

Well this is still the Janssen thread, but looking at the team as a whole, you can argue that all that matters is the team scoring goals by any means, and winning points, and I wouldn't disagree with that.

However, that's perhaps a bit short sighted. It assumes we will continue to score goals and pick up points to the degree we want to, and it sees one of our players as collateral damage, or places the blame on him (perhaps erroneously). If Janssen actually is not the problem then hiring a new striker now or in the summer won't fix the root cause of the problem.

As a striker myself in my past, I can see that Janseen is not getting service, and I can see he now lacks self belief. Both are problems in my opinion, but any new striker is going to struggle likewise without adequate service even if their belief is good initially, so I see it as a problem that needs fixing.

 

[Juicy Sushi]

Any manager will say that there is room for improvement. There always is. I'm not missing your point at all. I am disagreeing with an assertion that Spurs have a problem. Which you absolutely did say.

Yes, I did say we have a problem. And we do. This long range shooting vs. passing is a marginal gain that is the difference between us being in the middle of a 6-way dogfight to try and finish in the top 4 and being a title contender. It's literally the last big step we need to make. If we don't make it, we remain as we are. If we do, we become something much bigger.

 

[Juicy Sushi]

But it DOSEN'T show if the pass was on, if it's not on he can't pass. Again take Chelsea as an example Kane was marked out the game, the pass wasn't on.
EDIT: The pass to Kane wasn't on BUT the pass to Alli was twice!!

Yes, and it was on a third time as well, when he shot from range instead of playing the ball into the box for Dele to run onto when he was unmarked. A higher % chance foregone because we shot from range instead.

 

[Super Jan Fan]

I think the vast majority feel the same about Vinny.

Basically, service to him hasnt been great.
Feel for him, but he needs to start getting into the box.
Probably can come good in the right set up.

However, its just plain wrong to say we are scoring less. The facts say otherwise, despite what the heatmaps are showing, so to speak.

Stats are useful facts in their basic form...ie, Spurs have scored 39 goals this season, compared to 33 in the same period last season. But thats where it ends for me.

Im not going to champion an opinion that we are much much better this season and use that to prove anything.
You need to take things at face value sometimes.

We've scored more as a team, not less. BUT, we could score more if we play our strikers in more often.
However, its not the shots from our midfielders or runs into the box from Alli and Son that Id sacrifice, its the passing backwards when there is a very good chance to go forward.

I agree, stats are useful but not the whole picture. We are better as a team this season than last season, in my view, and that is reflected in the goals scored and the points stats, which are the most important of all. But Kane is an exceptional talent and while any team will suffer if they lose their top striker, you need to have an alternative even if they are not quite as good. Our alternative is a massive problem at the moment, whether that is the player or the approach that is at fault, or both, we need to fix it or risk the consequences. We already lost points this season when Kane was unavailable. If it happens again we lose more points. The stats suggest one half of the problem. Watching Janssen with your eyes suggests the other half.

I also agree that we do weird passing backwards from good positions where we could take a risk to try and create something. Davies yesterday was a prime example of that in my opinion and despite his excellent header I think it exposed that we need another Danny Rose type player who has the confidence and ability to continue their attack.