Considering how easy Liverpool's group is I don't think it's unfair to say that they stand a slightly better chance than us of making the last 16. What I do find quite interesting are the chances of 1st and 2nd place finishes - as things stand, we are 60% likely to finish second and 22% likely to finish first. Looking at the bigger picture, there are already strong favourites in place to finish first in 7 of the 8 groups - these are Barca, Real, PSG, City, Utd, Chelsea and Sevilla. Group G (Monaco, Porto, Leipzig, Besiktas) is the only one that's still wide open.
So what? Well, it means that if everything pans out the way that it looks like panning out, and we finish second, there are only a handful of teams we could draw in the last 16... i.e. Barca, PSG, Sevilla or the Group G winner (as we can't draw an English team or Real). That could be a very, very nervous draw for us.