I think people generally don't have the best grasp of interpreting statistics - not a dig at the masses, more the way the media presents them without interpretation.
-
The Fighting Cock is a forum for fans of Tottenham Hotspur Football Club. Here you can discuss Spurs latest matches, our squad, tactics and any transfer news surrounding the club. Registration gives you access to all our forums (including 'Off Topic' discussion) and removes most of the adverts (you can remove them all via an account upgrade). You're here now, you might as well...
Latest Spurs videos from Sky Sports
Maybe part of that game but he must start soon and Brighton seems as good a game as any.
True though.
Because he’s a creative mid????
Have you read any of my many posts about statistics, by any chance? That could've come verbatim from many of them. I repeatedly blame the media and pundits for things like xG misuse.
You can't provide powerful derived stats like that to fans without any context or instruction regarding their accurate use. Well, I guess you can, but you end up in a situation like we have now where some people use xG to make a point about who "should" have won a particular game. Fully understanding xG models requires university-level computational stats, which you just can't reasonably expect of people.
Oh right.
Doubt it, mate - that would necessitate leaving your couchI got you.
Tell her I'll be round in half an hour, bruv.....
First moment I saw him I thought he looked like our former player Michael Brown (Just saw he was Man City's player of the year 1998, how rank must they have been back then!):
How is it not hyphenated? Coz, that's deffo his dad...
The xG stats also don't take into account who the shots are taken by, correct? A shot from the edge of the box by Kane sure as hell shouldn't be the same probability as one from Winks.
Lucas offers chasing and a work-rate that we aren't likely to see from Bale. Jose knows this....
And that's it.
Saffgatt?
I think once Jose decided to put Lamela on it was over for Gareth tonight.
First moment I saw him I thought he looked like our former player Michael Brown (Just saw he was Man City's player of the year 1998, how rank must they have been back then!):
How is it not hyphenated? Coz, that's deffo his dad...
Brownhill: Euphemism for 'Pile Of Shite'.
Exactly. That is part of the reason that it's very difficult, and misguided, to use xG to argue the result of a particular match. As you say, three chances for Kane is not the same thing as the same three chances for Lacazette (as a closer comparison, but Winks works just as well).
If you assume that every team is somehow perfectly, equally average, then xG would give you something close to a realistic assessment of who should've won a match. As an interesting side-effect, it would also give you a mathematically optimal predictor of who did win. If you knew the xG of every match but not the results under the conditions of "average identical teams", you would be able to predict who won those matches with outstanding accuracy, bounded only by the accuracy of the particular xG model.
One good use of xG is to compare the "clinicalness" of strikers over a large sample of games. The ratio between the number of goals they actually score and their xG is a good approximation of how good they are at finishing. It's easily the best purely quantitative metric of finishing ability we have. Kane and Son absolutely devastate all of Europe in overperforming their xGs over many seasons, with Kane being particularly, incredibly consistent in doing so.
It's a massive risk. Yes moura didn't quite work but I have a feeling if bale startshe isn't going to come off and it affects the game. He is not fully fit for a game like this