He was quite impressive tonight
Battled hard and never stopped running
Never heard of him before
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He was quite impressive tonight
Battled hard and never stopped running
Never heard of him before
With the mid season break ending, the transfer window closing and our return to Premier League action starting tomorrow, I feel that the fight for 4th is going to be in the forefront of many of our minds.
How is everyone else feeling about our chances? Who is our biggest threat? How important would it be to get Champions League football again?
For those not interested in numbers or some basic data analytics, feel free to skip the rest of this post as I for my interest, I thought I'd have a dig through some numbers to give some context to the battle and thought I'd share it for those who may be interested.
Spurs performance so far
While we are 7th in the League, with the amount of games being rescheduled, in my opinion, a fairer reflection of where teams are can be found by looking at each team's points per game (PPG). If we were to order the Premier league table my this measure, we can see that currently we are 4th highest:
If every team's current PPG continued, we would finish 3 points above Woolwich in 4th.
However, it should be noted that we have more games in hand than all of our rivals so fixture congestion/injuries could hit us harder. Also our goal difference is only the 8th highest in the league, so by that metric we are lagging behind.
Manager PPG performance
Obviously our time with Nuno wasn't the most successful. So it's useful to look at each team's PPG under each manager.
(click on the images to go to the full size versions of these images)
Here we can see that Conte is outperforming all of our other rivals managers with a high 2.1 PPG, compared to Nuno's 1.5 PPG. However, this doesn't take into account the quality of the opponents each manager has faced which could skew these numbers (I might do some analysis on this later to see as it will be interesting for me).
Opposition quality remaining
While most teams need to play most teams, with postponements meaning some teams have played teams twice while others not at all, this could have an impact.
You can try to measure this in many different ways. My favourite is to look at the expected points per game based entirely on the opponents you face (see the end if you want to know the details*). This puts Spurs about mid table regarding the amount of difficulty, but crucially a kinder fixture list than all of our rivals by this metric. Note that the total in the right table will overestimate poor team's total and underestimate good team's total.
I have also looked at the average league position (as it is now and adjusted by PPG) and by opponent's average points per game and they paint a very similar picture.
Signings
Wolves (who many people would consider probably the weakest rival) are the only one of our competitors to sign players in January. In sales, free transfers and loans, Man Utd and Woolwich can only have got weaker while West Ham stayed basically the same. With us selling/loaning players that were not in Conte's plans while getting two players that Conte is happy with, I feel we are in a stronger position than before January.
Over/Underperforming teams
Some teams for whatever reason could spend a half or even whole season over or under performing. So just looking at how things have gone so far this season doesn't give you a full picture of what could happen for the rest of this season. For example, with Man Utd finishing 2nd last season and many of there players being hot or cold, if they can get everything together they could be a force to be reckoned with.
All of this is just to give us some context about where we are at. On it's own it can't tell us what will happen so treat this as such.
* Expected points per game based entirely on the opponents you face: I feel this is best explained by an example: if one of the opponents you are facing has won 10 games, drawn 5 and lost 7, on average teams have got (7x3 + 5x1 + 10x0)/(10+5+7) = 26/22 = 1.18 points from them each game. If you do this for all the teams you are facing, add these all together (counting it twice if you play a team twice) and divide this by the number of games remaining, you get a number for each team that represents the average number of points each team can expect each game if they are a bang average team.
How is everyone else feeling about our chances? Who is our biggest threat? How important would it be to get Champions League football again?
For those not interested in numbers or some basic data analytics, feel free to skip the rest of this post as I for my interest, I thought I'd have a dig through some numbers to give some context to the battle and thought I'd share it for those who may be interested.
Spurs performance so far
While we are 7th in the League, with the amount of games being rescheduled, in my opinion, a fairer reflection of where teams are can be found by looking at each team's points per game (PPG). If we were to order the Premier league table my this measure, we can see that currently we are 4th highest:
If every team's current PPG continued, we would finish 3 points above Woolwich in 4th.
However, it should be noted that we have more games in hand than all of our rivals so fixture congestion/injuries could hit us harder. Also our goal difference is only the 8th highest in the league, so by that metric we are lagging behind.
Manager PPG performance
Obviously our time with Nuno wasn't the most successful. So it's useful to look at each team's PPG under each manager.
(click on the images to go to the full size versions of these images)
Here we can see that Conte is outperforming all of our other rivals managers with a high 2.1 PPG, compared to Nuno's 1.5 PPG. However, this doesn't take into account the quality of the opponents each manager has faced which could skew these numbers (I might do some analysis on this later to see as it will be interesting for me).
Opposition quality remaining
While most teams need to play most teams, with postponements meaning some teams have played teams twice while others not at all, this could have an impact.
You can try to measure this in many different ways. My favourite is to look at the expected points per game based entirely on the opponents you face (see the end if you want to know the details*). This puts Spurs about mid table regarding the amount of difficulty, but crucially a kinder fixture list than all of our rivals by this metric. Note that the total in the right table will overestimate poor team's total and underestimate good team's total.
I have also looked at the average league position (as it is now and adjusted by PPG) and by opponent's average points per game and they paint a very similar picture.
Signings
Wolves (who many people would consider probably the weakest rival) are the only one of our competitors to sign players in January. In sales, free transfers and loans, Man Utd and Woolwich can only have got weaker while West Ham stayed basically the same. With us selling/loaning players that were not in Conte's plans while getting two players that Conte is happy with, I feel we are in a stronger position than before January.
Over/Underperforming teams
Some teams for whatever reason could spend a half or even whole season over or under performing. So just looking at how things have gone so far this season doesn't give you a full picture of what could happen for the rest of this season. For example, with Man Utd finishing 2nd last season and many of there players being hot or cold, if they can get everything together they could be a force to be reckoned with.
All of this is just to give us some context about where we are at. On it's own it can't tell us what will happen so treat this as such.
* Expected points per game based entirely on the opponents you face: I feel this is best explained by an example: if one of the opponents you are facing has won 10 games, drawn 5 and lost 7, on average teams have got (7x3 + 5x1 + 10x0)/(10+5+7) = 26/22 = 1.18 points from them each game. If you do this for all the teams you are facing, add these all together (counting it twice if you play a team twice) and divide this by the number of games remaining, you get a number for each team that represents the average number of points each team can expect each game if they are a bang average team.
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Don't see it as unfair.
The situation is continuously evolving and we are where we are now.
We acted decisively and got a proper manager in who led us on a great run despite injuries to key men and a fragmented squad.
We then got rid of the bad apple wasters and brought in two who look like they can contribute to a good level right away.
United have better indivduals but are a mess and continue to falter. West Ham, Woolwich and Wolves are pretenders.
We have a better squad and a better manager than those three.
We have to take our chance.
I think the only real threats are an injury to Kane and United somehow flicking a switch and playing to their potential.
I think Woolwich are going to be our biggest rivals for fourth. They may well have gotten better by subtraction (Auba).
Having said that, they have a less than mediocre manager and might struggle for goals. I think there will be great pressure on their young players but if they step up, it pains me to say that they might make a real race of it.
Having said that, they have a less than mediocre manager and might struggle for goals. I think there will be great pressure on their young players but if they step up, it pains me to say that they might make a real race of it.
I partially agree with what you're saying, but do think that when you bring in a guy like Conte the expectations of everyone (both club and fan base) shift. Even more so when it happened relatively early in the season.
He's a current top manager, who has a massive drive to win, that alone to me says we're aiming above the 6th spot the club seemed to have been happy with last summer.
You could arguably still make a case that if the club really did expect him to make top 4 that they would've been more active in pursuing a new RWB and Forward last month, and by not doing so they may not have the expectation of him making top 4 this season. Maybe they will just view it as a season where he instills his vision on the current squad, gets them to fully understand his system, makes crucial adjustment to the squad in summer, and goes full bore next season.
Either way, regardless of what anyone's expectations are not getting top 4 this year truly would be disappointing. The spot is wide open, and I do still believe that if we had gotten a proper RWB we'd be a lock. Even without one I still think we've got a decent shot at it.
At the end of the day Conte's only human, and our squad quite clearly has gaps so I won't hold it against him if we don't manage to make it.
What I'm really excited to see is our defence with Romero back fully fit (it felt like Conté barely had any time with him before) and Son back, who is almost always a big miss these days if absent. If it all clicks in the way we hope with his coaching (and the signs have looked good) then I honestly do think we should emerge as the strongest 4th place competitor, but we'll see...
Not just horseteeth that’s been deleted, they moved on Mari, Chambers, Nile’s and Kolasnic…. Four shocking squad players. If I’m not mistaken, all five played when they got rinsed 5-0 by City at the start of the season.
They have a strong 11, and have improved the squad by weening out these losers so they can’t be selected. Less is more in this case
Hopefully we relegate Lucas and PEH to impact subs and as above with that lot, our first 11 will also be much improved
Woolwich should have played us before we strengthened - feck 'em
Competition - The Race for 4th
We could be 4th Sunday Evening, with a game in hand. Astonishing, really.
thefightingcock.co.uk
I am certainly a bit more optimistic about top four than a few weeks back think while still a scrap between a few teams I feel things a bit more positive. But no excuses tonight make no mistake and win then move on .
United dropping points again is huge for the top 4 race. They look so disjointed.
I’m more confident in top 4 now with Kane scoring again and getting Romero, Dier and Son back. Add to that a couple of new signings.
We have 4 games in hand over 4th, and we’re 4 points behind them. We could move 8 points clear of that scum who happily play animal abusers.
I’m more confident in top 4 now with Kane scoring again and getting Romero, Dier and Son back. Add to that a couple of new signings.
We have 4 games in hand over 4th, and we’re 4 points behind them. We could move 8 points clear of that scum who happily play animal abusers.
We were linked with him at one point.
I t
I think his stats are so good they deserve their own threadCompetition - The Race for 4th
We could be 4th Sunday Evening, with a game in hand. Astonishing, really.
Feel free to merge them, I didn't see that thread, my apologies
edit: I'm probably being stupid as I can click the link but for some reason that thread is not appearing on my search bar or the main spurs forum so I'm not sure what is happening
edit: I'm probably being stupid as I can click the link but for some reason that thread is not appearing on my search bar or the main spurs forum so I'm not sure what is happening
You probably have the OP on ignore.
Yeah, but you need to weigh home and away games into that equation, not treat them all the same...
I think we will finish top 4, quite comfortably.With the mid season break ending, the transfer window closing and our return to Premier League action starting tomorrow, I feel that the fight for 4th is going to be in the forefront of many of our minds.
How is everyone else feeling about our chances? Who is our biggest threat? How important would it be to get Champions League football again?
For those not interested in numbers or some basic data analytics, feel free to skip the rest of this post as I for my interest, I thought I'd have a dig through some numbers to give some context to the battle and thought I'd share it for those who may be interested.
Spurs performance so far
While we are 7th in the League, with the amount of games being rescheduled, in my opinion, a fairer reflection of where teams are can be found by looking at each team's points per game (PPG). If we were to order the Premier league table my this measure, we can see that currently we are 4th highest:
If every team's current PPG continued, we would finish 3 points above Woolwich in 4th.
However, it should be noted that we have more games in hand than all of our rivals so fixture congestion/injuries could hit us harder. Also our goal difference is only the 8th highest in the league, so by that metric we are lagging behind.
Manager PPG performance
Obviously our time with Nuno wasn't the most successful. So it's useful to look at each team's PPG under each manager.
(click on the images to go to the full size versions of these images)
Here we can see that Conte is outperforming all of our other rivals managers with a high 2.1 PPG, compared to Nuno's 1.5 PPG. However, this doesn't take into account the quality of the opponents each manager has faced which could skew these numbers (I might do some analysis on this later to see as it will be interesting for me).
Opposition quality remaining
While most teams need to play most teams, with postponements meaning some teams have played teams twice while others not at all, this could have an impact.
You can try to measure this in many different ways. My favourite is to look at the expected points per game based entirely on the opponents you face (see the end if you want to know the details*). This puts Spurs about mid table regarding the amount of difficulty, but crucially a kinder fixture list than all of our rivals by this metric. Note that the total in the right table will overestimate poor team's total and underestimate good team's total.
I have also looked at the average league position (as it is now and adjusted by PPG) and by opponent's average points per game and they paint a very similar picture.
Signings
Wolves (who many people would consider probably the weakest rival) are the only one of our competitors to sign players in January. In sales, free transfers and loans, Man Utd and Woolwich can only have got weaker while West Ham stayed basically the same. With us selling/loaning players that were not in Conte's plans while getting two players that Conte is happy with, I feel we are in a stronger position than before January.
Over/Underperforming teams
Some teams for whatever reason could spend a half or even whole season over or under performing. So just looking at how things have gone so far this season doesn't give you a full picture of what could happen for the rest of this season. For example, with Man Utd finishing 2nd last season and many of there players being hot or cold, if they can get everything together they could be a force to be reckoned with.
All of this is just to give us some context about where we are at. On it's own it can't tell us what will happen so treat this as such.
* Expected points per game based entirely on the opponents you face: I feel this is best explained by an example: if one of the opponents you are facing has won 10 games, drawn 5 and lost 7, on average teams have got (7x3 + 5x1 + 10x0)/(10+5+7) = 26/22 = 1.18 points from them each game. If you do this for all the teams you are facing, add these all together (counting it twice if you play a team twice) and divide this by the number of games remaining, you get a number for each team that represents the average number of points each team can expect each game if they are a bang average team.
Yep, I’m so much more confident. Don’t get me wrong, we are still a great team and improvements are still needed in the summer, but I think we are the best of the rest. Way below the top 3 and nowhere near a top 3 challenge, but better than the other chasers of 4th. Romero back and Son is absolutely massive. Add to that our new signings who are looking like they will make an impact and it’s very positive. The Conte affect is going to be huge too.
Our GD is not very good.
United's next 5 Premier League fixtures:
- Southampton (H)
- Brighton (H)
- Leeds (A)
- Watford (H)
- Manchester City (A)
- Leicester (A)
- Newcastle (H)
- Wolves (H)
- Liverpool (A)
- Aston Villa (H)
- Wolves (A)
- Brentford (H)
- Wolves (H)
- Watford (A)
- Leicester (H)
- Aston Villa (A)
- Southampton (H)
- Wolves (H)
- Manchester City (A)
- Burnley (A)
- Leeds (A)
- Everton (H)
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