Fair play to you for taking the time to work this out, but isn't this sample line up missing the teams who drop out of the Champions League and Europa League? This season Galatasaray, Sporting Lisbon, Wolfsburg, and very nearly AC Milan (who won their Europa play-off 9-8 on pens) would all have dropped into the Conference League had it existed. On top of that the 8 teams dropping in to the knockout stages will be pretty strong.If everything went by seeding through all the competitions (which obviously it won't), but here would be the pots for each competition, to give idea about the strength of each competition when we get to group stages.
Champs League
Pot 1 Manchester City Manchester United Atletico Madrid Bayern Munich Lille Inter Milan Sporting Lisbon Zenit St Petersburg Pot 2 Real Madrid Barcelona Juventus Paris St Germain Liverpool Sevilla Chelsea Borussia Dortmund Pot 3 Porto Ajax Shakhtar Donetsk RB Leipzig RB Salzburg Benfica Atalanta Besiktas Pot 4 Dynamo Kiev Slavia Prague Olympiakos Monaco Club Brugge Young Boys AC Milan Wolfsburg Europa League Pot 1 Lyon Napoli Bayer Leverkusen Dinamo Zagreb Lazio Copenhagen Sporting Braga Celtic Pot 2 Eintracht Frankfurt Red Star Belgrade Leicester City Rangers Lokomotiv Moscow Genk PSV Eindhoven Ludogorets Razgrad Pot 3 Marseille AZ Alkmaar West Ham United Real Sociedad Real Betis Fenerbahce Malmo Spartak Moscow Pot 4 Sparta Prague Rapid Vienna CFR Cluj Legia Warsaw Midtjylland Galatasaray Omonia Nicosia Ferencvaros Conference League Pot 1 Roma Tottenham Hotspur Villarreal Basel Gent Anderlecht LASK Linz Feyenoord Pot 2 Maccabbi Tel Aviv Qarabag Steaua PAOK Salonika AEK Athens Rennes Partizan Belgrade Zorya Luhansk Pot 3 Union Berlin Sheriff Tirsapol Antwerp F91 Dudelange Pacos de Ferreira Vitesse Arnhem Sturm Graz St. Johnstone Pot 4 Randers Bodo/Glimt Shkendija Kairat Neftci Baku Mura Shakytor Soligorsk Slovan Bratislava
So last 16 of Conference League if everything went to seedings would be the Pot 1 Conference teams listed above against the Pot 3 Europa League teams listed above, as the 3rd ranked Europa League teams would all be rated higher than 2nd tier Conference league.
Means winning the group would be important to avoid extra 2 matches.
But it would start to get serious in last 16 with based on coefficeients
Roma, Tottenham, West Ham, Villarreal, Real Betis, Real Sociedad, Basel, Marseille, Feyenoord, AZ Alkmaar, Fenerbahce, Spartak Moscow, Malmo, Linz, Gent, Anderlecht
There's one thing I really like about the format (the Europa is same). That is that the group winners get a bye past the next round - real incentive to finish top once top-two is guaranteed.