100% pen
He's trying to screen/usher/jockey Rose there with his arms, a natural move for a defender IMO rather than intentionally going for the ball. Look at his eyes. Can't see how he'd know exactly where the ball has gone off his foot to do that on purpose.
But I'm done arguing this. I'm happy we got the goal but if we're giving those now a lot more pens are now going to be given.
Also, everything looks worse in slo-mo.