To add to the bolded part regarding the wisdom of welcoming those shots:
They're not low percentage attempts as a rule. Funnily enough, what makes them that way is the football teams' usual willingness to take them seriously and deal with them accordingly by throwing bodies in the way. Once you start taking things for granted and getting out of the way like we've been doing under Frank, they suddenly start posing a much bigger threat.
This graphic from the broadcast that shows Fulham to record an xG of 0.35 was from the end of the first half. We could only guess the xG attributed to their first goal, but it must be significantly lower than 0.35 since that was hardly their only attempt until that point in the game. It was an accumulation of:
- First goal+ second goal + another shot from the edge of the box that hit the woodwork I can vividly remember + others
So by all indications, xG of the 1st cannot be higher than something like 0.20. In other words, they have 20 percent chance of going in. Well I disagree, I think this estimate takes it for granted that they are being defended reasonably well.
When you're getting out of the way to invite the opponents to take those, that percentage probably skyrockets.
Frank is getting led astray by a faulty piece of math that misses this nuance I presume