My take - penalty, but no red:
1) Naughton's arms raise well before Lloris's (even thought it's slowed down), so the guy would have to be like a fucking cat on speed to even be able to react to stopping that with his arms intentionally.
If it is intentional, he'd be a world class shot stopper!
2) The FA Rule that this was only a yellow - the angle makes it look like it's less "on target", but you never know how the ball will swerve without inference anyway, so if the gooner cunts get only a yellow for this:
Then #NeverARed